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S Asia promises to be mqjor player in global trade in 25 yrs

Reform, reduce tariff: WB
South Asia is poised to become a major force in the global trading system in the next 25 years, according to a new report released in Hong Kong yesterday by the World Bank.
The report, South Asia's Integration into the World Economy. predicts that the region. . buoyed by India, can experience | 'the world's fastest growth in exports in the period leading up to 2020.
For South Asia, currently the region least integrated into the global economy, faster integration holds the promise of higher growth rates and the large-scale eradication of poverty.
But this will depend on whether South Asian countries can continue to enact broad-based reforms, improve governance. and further liberalise trade. With these changes, the report s export growth models suggest a nigh increase in export volumes between 1992 and 2005, including almost 12 per cent a year growth in India — potentially the world's highest rate.
"The message of the report is essentially: so far so good" says John Williamson. World Bank Chief Economist. South Asia Region, "but the study also makes it clear that South Asia still has a long way to go."
Exports have responded to new opportunities, regional economies are opening up. direct investment Inflows are increasing. Average nominal protection rates are now around 20-25 per cent, half of what they were five years ago. Real exports grew at 11 per cent a year in the 1990s. faster than in any other region except East Asia.
Despite these gains. South Asia continues to have the highest tariffs in the world and more quantitative restrictions on trade than most other regions.
Some sectors, such as agriculture and consumer goods in
India, have remained largely unaffected by liberalisation.
Per capita exports are five times lower than in other developing countries, and South Asia's share In world trade is just 1 per cent, compared with 4 per cent for China. Intra-re-gional trade Is still minuscule, accounting for 4 per cent of total trade.
South Asia's inflows of investment capital also remain modest compared to other regions. Private capital flows to South Asia increased sharply in the 1990s, but by 1996 its share of net private flows to developing countries was 4.3 per cent, down from 7.6 per cent in the 1980s.
Foreign direct investment was about 0.5 per cent of the region's GNP in 1996. compared with 4.2 per cent for East Asia and 1.9 per cent for other developing regions. South Asia also remains vulnerable to external shocks, due to its strong concentration of exports in cot-
ton textiles and garments, heavy reliance on imported energy (particularly for India and Pakistan), high levels of external indebtedness, and the high share of volatile portfolio flows in foreign financing.
South Asia remains the region with the highest incidence of poverty and the largest absolute numbers of poor. Sustained progress in poverty reduction critically depends on faster growth, which has been shown to be strongly and positively influenced by integration with the world economy.
The report argues that South Asia is now well placed to accelerate integration and growth. The combination of a favourable external environment, the implementation of the Uruguay Round, the abolition of the Multi-fibre Arrangement and increased regional cooperation is potentially formidable and should result in faster growth.
— WB press release.