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BETWEEN THE LINES

UF Has Learnt to Live Together

Kuldip Nayar writes from New Delhi
THE central politics has become repetitive. It Is like a gramophone record which has got stuck at a particular refrain Leaders of political parties go over the same exercise in the name of new developments. In a similar way, the media spruces old scenario up so that it reads or sounds fresh. The situation has not changed since the United Front assumed power one year ago. except a new prime minister in the saddle.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which sees every third day the beginning of a countdown to the general election. Is churning water. Its helplessness or frustration is apparent from the usual rath yatra, which disturbed the dust but failed to do anything beyond The party is hoping the UF to disintegrate or Congress to withdraw support. It has no other strategy, no other programme, but for some outbursts in parliament on the day's news.
Congress would like to be in power or lead a coalition. But how to do it has been its problem. particularly to appease some anxious aspirants waiting in the wings. The party can stall a government decision if It feels so strongly about it. But Congress president Sitaram Keshri has no reason to rock the boat if it is going to crash
The party is afraid of a situation where a mid-term poll becomes inevitable. It has wooed Mulayam Singh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh and there is every possibility that his Samajwadi Party and Congress will fight the next election Jointly. For-
mer Bihar chief minister Laloo Prasad Yadav feels indebted to Congress for Its support to his wife. Rabari Devi, in securing a vote of confidence as the state chief minister He may also come to an understanding with the party at the time of a midterm poll.
But what does Congress do meanwhile? It cannot sit idle, crossing the t s and dotting the I s. Basking in the glory of a dependent government is one thing and running the government is another. Keshri also finds his flock restive. His Eoblem is that the mathemat-
i of numbers does not work in his favour. In a house of 545 members. Congress has only 146 Even if the DMK and Tamil Maanila Congress were to support it — and even if Mulayam Singh and Laloo Yadav are in his bag — Keshri would remain short by nearly 70
On the other hand, he finds that Congress is in no shape to face the electorate so soon, especially when the taint of corruption has not worn off. He sees a bit of revival of the party in Karnataka and Maharashtra But the Congress Waterloo has been the Hindi-speaking states. The party has not retrieved aiw ground there.
Therefore, both Congress and the BJP look towaras developments within the United Front. Their hopes are up when on a particular day one con-
stituent of the UF feels irritated and makes a threatening statement. But when analysecf it turns out to be an ego problem or at best a misunderstanding, which is sorted out On another day. some other worked up con-stituent is up in arms. Again the crisis is nothing but a storm In a tea cup The media also realises that it has made mountain out of a mole hill.
There Is nothing to suggest that the UF is disintegrating or
that a new set up at the Centre is in the offing. The mills of rumours are busy overnight and everything happening within the UF becomes the grist for their propaganda. But there Is nothing concrete so far.
What Is not realised is that a group of 14 parties is bound to nave differences. But they are necessarily Insurmountable. This is what is happening within the UF in the past one year. That it will break up is a sheer wishful thinking. True, it remains tentative and tenuous as it was at the time of its foundation. But Its looseness Is probably Its strength. Ever new problems have ade the UF con
stituents more patient and more accommodating They have learnt to live with one another They still play to the gallery and try to take stand which may be popular but not realistic Ultimately, they apply their mind to arrive at a solution and find one.
Prime Minister Inder Gujral says that there is not a single decision which has been taken on vote either in the UPs steering committee or in the Union
Cabinet. Everything is decided unanimously. He says that he has served many governments but has known none other than the UF which goes into every aspect of the problems and reaches an agreement after a full discussion. Inherent contradictions of the UF may come to the fore at times. But all of its constituents are aware that they, regional parties, have begun to count in the country. They do not want to be vassals of the Centre as they have been in the past. This cements their relationship.
The key Is In the hand of the communists They may not be happy with the UF — and they
snipe at it almost daily — but they will never damage the UF beyond repair Theirs is no altruistic motive They Just do not want either the BJP or Congress to come to power at the Centre. The UF helps them stall them. The communists are as much stuck to the UF as it is to them.
Congress has reportedly tried to persuade them to stay neutral as they did during the regime of Indira Gandhi when her government lost a majority in the Lok Sabha in the wake of split in Congress in 1969. The communists have not yet been taken in by the argument. How can they have any understanding with a party which is fighting them at every inch in the states of West Bengal. Kerala and Tripura?
The Laloo Prasad Yadav episode has hurt the UF in the sense that his government was continued without any decision for several weeks. The UF looked divided and helpless and. at times, a reluctant supporter to his stay. The replacement by his wife has not lessened the ignominy. The UF looks compromising. It has damaged its image in the pro-
The real crisis will begin the day Congress feels that the UF is supplanting it in the eyes of the electorate. The party can afford to wait for its turn. But it cannot brook a situation where It begins to become redundant.
The moment the UP begins to earn good name. Congress will begin the demolition programme. Congress can also initiate the move if and when it feels that it can come back to power or draw old Congressmen back to the party
The argument is that if the party could accept Krishna Kant, once Congressman, as the vice-presidential candidate, why can't old Congressmen return to its fold. The logic is not convincing. Yet some in the UF are flirting with the idea of effecting an electoral alliance with Congress at the next polls.
The communists are dead against it. So is Andhra Pradesh chief minister Chan-drababu Naidu, whose Telugu Desam is in direct fight against Congress. The communists may like the UF to fight the election as a group, with their support from the outside. This, no doubt, keeps out Congress and the BJP. But is the UF combina-Uon viable? And if and when it wins a substantial number of seats, can it depend on the support of Congress, which It would opposed in elections?
The fear of the BJP coming to power may work then as it has worked now. What the UF has to guard against Is its inner contradicUons. It may sound repetitive but the danger to the UF has been from within, not without. At present, former prime minister Deve Gowda and Janata Dal president Sharad Yadav are bent upon yawning distances. Their opposition to Inder Gujral is persistent and open. This can create problems for the UF.