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Are We Skating on Thin Ice?

by Chandra Shekhar Das
***Bangladesh may not quite have a history replete with quakes but the fact of the matter is that we have long come to be regarded as an earthquake-prone country and according to leading seismologists of the zone, we stand the chance of a major earthquake by the turn of the century.**
THURSDAY’S tremor shook Sylhet more than any other place in the country. But what probably the brief convulsion of earth really shook Is our smugness over the possible appearance of earth-3uake as a natural disaster of te worst kind. The seeming lack of concern reflected in the posthumous reaction of the fourth estate and people in general to the morning wobbliness of the visible world was alarmingly surprising in the context of seismic reality in Bangladesh.
If press is to be regarded as a mirror of sorts for reflecting the problems of a country and people's reaction to them, then most newsp^pprs'witb the, expected exception of one or two. did an inexplicably inadequate job the following day. Tnere was very little information and analysis, on the basis of Thursday's experience, of the prospects and dangers of a major earthquake in Bangladesh, something informed sources fear as a strong possibility, let alone being a long shot.
The logic behind not becoming hysterically loud about the prospect of an earthquake has an air of automatic justification about it. Despite the absolutely mirific progress of science. it is still beyond man’s reach to predict the time and place of an earthquake. Neither
it has been possible yet to reduce the extent of damage to nothing for. the type of calamity is such; so intrinsically mighty and expansive.
But the moot point here is even if it is impossible to be foolproof against the dangers of destruction, there is a huge scope for minimising the casualties by way of awareness and careful planning. And that is possible through a system of monitoring', the global, quake pattern and regular exchange of information with tne leading research institutions or agencies around the world,
Bangladesh may not'quite have a history replete with quakes but the fact of the matter is that we have long come to be regarded as an earthquake-prone country and according to leading seismologists of the zone, we stand the chance of a major earthquake by the turn of the century. Yet, our ap-Eroach in this regard seems to e utterly haunted by the spectre of Rip Van Winkle.
We have a seismological observatory at Ambagan of Chittagong but the functional role of the country's lone earthquake-
monitoring centre seems to be shrouded in mystery. References in the leader column of the two leading Bengali dailies will elucidate the point.
It was informed in the editorial of the daily lltefaq of May 12, that all three seismometers or devices for measuring the quavering Intensity of earth are still intact. What one is likely to understand by that? That the tools and apparatuses of the observatory may not be functionally capable thdugh looking quite all right physically, or they may be functionally as good as they look.
Let's consult the leader column of the other dally, the Sangbad. of the same date. Referring to the non-committal and uncertain pattern of the met office observation that the intensity of Thursday's quake could have been 4.5 in the Richter scale, it informs quite surefootedly that the observatory at Ambagan is bereft of skilled staff.
The Inquilab, another Bengali daily, which apparently stole a march on its more traditional and popular rivals for its swift reaction in furnishing
readers with details about seismological reality of Bangladesh and the history of earthquake in this zone, had earlier quoted Akashvanl. the Indian national radio as having mentioned the intensity of Thursday's earthquake at 5.7 in the Richter scale.
Now, the bottomline of all these references is that we have a very yague or no idea of what the lone seismological observatory is capable of We do not know whether it is the necessity of a technological overhauling or qualified and skilled staff that the monitoring centre is suffering from presently. The governmental indifference in this regard simply beats the imagination. We fail to understand how the successive governments could afford to be blind about the meaningless presence of just one seismological observatory In a country where, according to experts, there should be at least three of the type. It is learnt that the plan for establishing three seismological observatories has been okayed by the ECNEC but we are yet to see any signs of their being erected.
The quarters concerned should consider it seriously that-Bangladesh happens to be in an earthquake-prone zone; more so. due to the unabated lifting of subterranean mineral resources. In fact, the belt from greater Mymenslngh to Sylhet is an extra-ordinarlly vulnerable zone for a major earthquake. More seismologists have been heard of predicting a quake of the intensity of six to six-and-a:ha)f. in the Richter scale in Dhaka at any time. There is only one possible explanation for trifling with such a huge potential of natural calamity: We do not think. It is indeed frightening to think of the consequences of even a quake of medium intensity in old Dhaka where, on top of huge population, the danger is enhanced a few times more by the congested pattern and ramshackle condition of the constructions.
It is true that a poor country like' Bangladesh has many
other problems than earth quake to deal with and there Is very little that can be done in terms of readiness for a situation like that but there is no doubt that if allowed to stay in the consideration as a dark possibility in all matters related to construction or urbanisation. we will only be doing ourselves a great favour. Given the pattern of government triviality with the prospect of earthquake, it can easily be surmised how dangerously must even some of the latest constructions must be. Then what about public awareness about the small but invaluable life-saving tips in time of an earthquake.
Should there be a quake, we will probably incur more lo$s of human lives and property due to our own incomprehensible tradition of indifference than the instant impact of the cataclysm itself. Panic is the enhancing catalyst of all problems. We need not panic but we certainly need to be infinitely more conscious and contemporary in our approach to earthquake as a natural calamity. For. it is the most powerful, transforming curse of nature civilisation has known until this day.