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Will Post-Deng China be Able to Cross New Hurdles?

by AMM Shahabuddin
*****New President Jiang Zemin, in his first public statement, after assuming power, vowed that he wouldn't "swerve" from Deng's policies, adding, that he would "outdo his achievements".
WITH the sudden, but not unexpected, passing away of the great leader of new China Deng Xiaoping. China has lost a great and dynamic personality, after Mao Zedong. But the new glorious chapter of the Chinese episode, opened by Deng, will be there with its blazing trail to show the way to the new leadership to mould the destiny of 1.2 billion Chinese people in years to come. Deng opened a new vista for economic emancipation of his people with his dynamic economic reforms, by opening his country to the outside world, leaving for good, the traditional closed-door behind the bamboo curtain' policy.
His exit from the national scenario, -gave rise. to. speculations in the West about the capability of his successor Jiang Zemin who was considered by many as a "powerless transitional figure". Some even described him as a "political vegetarian". Only future will show how far he succeeds to carry the torch' handed over to him by his 'mentor', Deng.
New President Jiang Zemin, in his first public statement, after assuming power, vowed that he wouldn't "swerve" from Deng's policies, adding, that he would "outdo his ' achievements". This was rather too frank and too bold an announcement by Jiang and too early also. How the people of China will take such rather "disrespectful show of arrogance" to a leader, who is considered as the "supreme leader" and "architect" of China's new economic order, is difficult to Rredict. It was Deng who picked im up. practically from 'obscurity'. and groomed him to shoulder the future leadership, just as Stalin once brought out Khrushchev out of 'obscurity' and put him to responsible position.
Deng's Good and Bad Days
Deng had the bitter, and sweat tastes of both 'the best of times' and 'the worst of times' during his long career as a dedicated communist activist, from the days of Mao Zedong. He fell from grace of Mao when he criticized Mao's much-publicised 'cultural revolution' (1966-1976) as a "grave mistake" for which he was stripped of his post and sent to do menial work' in a countryside factory. He had the worst sufferings in those days. But he stuck to his gun and endused patiently with better hopes that came literally on a silver platter after the demise of Mao. But in one sense. Deng was lucky
not to leave his country and live an exiled' life like Trotsky who left his country in 1927 due to his feud with stating, to live in exile in Mexico where he was assassinated in 1940. Thus Deng could come back to power and rule the country for about two decades.
But the two sides of each coin are not always the same of shining glaze. There are at' times light and shade. And Deng's regime shows these two sides glaringly. Just as he would be remembered for his historic eWNWC refow».that.,pror. dueed far-reaching - effects on ithe^Qn as a whole, he would also go down tn China's history as playing a 'key-role' in crashing the pro-democracy movement that led to the massacre a the Tiananaman Square on 4 June 1989. During this turmoil. President Jiang was 'politically' born in the hands of Deng as a 'mid-wife'. With both far-sight and foresight. Deng made him Communist Party chief after Zhao Ziyang, a reformist and a close associate of Deng, was stripped of his post, because he was dubbed as a supporter of democracy movements so what Mao did to Deng, the same was repeated by Deng in the case of one of his close associate Zhao.
Deng More Cautious than Gorbachev
Deng was indeed a champion of "building socialism with Chinese characteristic". He was in the fore-front in his philosophy although similar voices were heard from some after communist leaders, including Marshal Tito and Fidel Castro. Deng successfully brought out China from behind the tight-roped so-called "bamboo curtain" rigid communist economy to the outside world with fresh air from the West with its open market economy. Although he became appreciably quite liberal in his economic policy, perhaps taking a cue from Western economic success, but he proved rigid so far as importing' western type of democracy was concerned. Perhaps he learnt a hard lesson from Gorbachev of former Soviet Union, who was raised to the sky by the western leaders and orchestrated media because of his 'openness', both politically and economically, with two popular. slogans of glasnost and prestroika that led to his quick
fall. Deng was cautious and took measured steps avoiding 'pitfalls' and 'minefields'.
Deng started his economic reforms particularly from the rural areas where the vast majority of 1.2 billion people live and work. His policy brought about a tremendous change in the quality of life of the peasants and landless labourers during 1979-1984. when, according to one estimate, the farmer s incomes rose by 17 per cent a year, lifting them from near-subsistence level and giv-
ther rise But just as It happens with western economic System, every rise has its fall and an irt-evitable crash follows a certain period of boom. So happened with the flourishing Chinese farmers in the 1980s. And some media reported that their annual income fell from 17 per cent to only 2 per cent, creating a panic and havoc among the farmers. There was shortage of jobs, dearth of scopes the national economy seemed to have reached a saturation point. Ironically, it led to huge exodus of unemployed farmers and a large-scale migration from the rural to the urban areas in search of jobs. Millions of farmers were on march. Perhaps a cruel reminiscence of the historic Long March which led the Chinese people to establish world's second Communist country. According to one report. about ten million migrants entered Guangdong province (Canton).
Economic Disparity: A Different Stroke
But there is another side of the boom. The boom has shown a tragic boomerang too. When millions were on the march in search of jobs and food for survival. important cities, like Be-jing. were bursting with activities of the 'neo-rich' people. Thus Deng's policy created an outright economic disparity among the people, creating a so-called elite class, and a poor class. The elite class in Beijing and other flourishing cities had their posh new bunglows, new imported cars, domestic servants and "even feed their pets with imported pet-food", as one report says, while their poorest cousins' were struggling for food and shelter on an annual income of $65 only!
/Jthough Deng was successful in later years to tide over the
difficult time through subsequent five-year plans, but still much was left to be done to stop the recurrence of the huge migration of rural farm people in search of jobs in the urban areas. According to one estimate, by 2020. China's urban population could more than double from its current about 400 million to some 840 million, and says an analyst, "unless a way can be found to control it. the next century will present China with breeding grounds for civil unrest...."
'Food Rush" by Growing Population
Today, China's coastal areas are said to be the fastest-growing economies in the world. Unfortunately. that doesn't mean that the whole of China is throbbing with new prosperity. When blrxxl accumulates at one particular place, that's not a sign of health. People in the faraway rural areas in this vast country are still struggling on their subsistence-leveTincome. The new Chinese government, headed by Jiang, will have to meet this "food rush" of the growing population which is expected to reach at "peak" at 1.6 billion by 2040. even working on its present one-child policy. China's current Five-Year plan, launched in 1996. promises several million new jobs to meet the situation.. Chinese economic planners forecast economic growth of about nine per cent each year for next
If that goes ahead undisturbed and unhampered. Jiang will, no doubt, emerge as a popular leader, next to Deng, even if he can't "out-do" himl
Social Evils Showing Ugly Face
But apart from economic problems. Jiang will have to deal with pernicious "evils" that have already entered Chinese social life, like corruption, grafting, bribery, gambling, prostitution. A recent media report said that China had convicted some 41 bank officials for "franding" in a city near Shanghai, through "illegal" investment. of 1.5 billion Yuan ($ 184 million). It shows the ex-■ tent of corruption and 'craze' for getting rich quicker. Unless checked, such vices would eat into the vitals of the Chinese nation. Jiang himself, commenting on this, has rightly
said "Such official graft threatens the entire future of the nation and the Chinese Communist party". Jiang has touched the right chord at the right time. Even horse-racing and gambling (so-called capitalist or bourgeos vices), which were banned in China for the last four decades or so. have come back under the new name of "horse intelligent taste", and gamblers are around under the new name of "fun-seekers". Just to dodge the prevailing law. (Chicago Tribune report). At .least,, the new. leadersWp^lp, •China is no longer expected la ifollow a policy, as they,
"Hear all. see all. say nowt (nothing)".
Political Unrest: A New Phenomenon
The recent bomblasts in and around Beijing, killing several people, unheard of before, and political demonstrations in the north-western province of Xin-giang, dominated by a Muslim ethnic group, have undoubtedly rung the danger bell. They carry ominous signals. Besides, discontent and unrest is brewing in Tibet, now a province of China, for autonomy. It Is another pain in the neck of Beijing. It's looming large on the horizon.
That's why the Chinese military forces nave been put on "top alert' in both Xingiang and Tibet in a bid to "curb separatist activities" in these areas. According to a media report, the
Chinese Military Commission has urged the regional forces to be on alert to prevent overseas elements from inciting unrest in Xlnjians in a move to split the motherland". Also, a Chinese "armed riot police" has been sent to both Xinjiang and Tibet "to back up military forces and police". But China should take a lesson from the Book of Knowledge' of Russia. Because what is Chachnya and Maidova to Russia, Xinjiang and Tibet is to China. Russia has learnt a lesson hard way that use of military forces often backfires and results in total disaster.
Il’s, therefore, obvious that the post-Deng Chinese leadership has a tremendous task to lead'a unktedChina to its goal, sef, by, Deng, pyerepming both the sdcio-ecoriomic issues, which are creating economic discontent among the vast majority ol rural population, on one hand, and on the other, to pacify, politically, the political unrest that Is commenting troubles In some areas. As the Chinese government has already expressed Its apprehension about the "overseas elements inciting unrest", it is to be seen how far the government succeeds in its economic as well as political mission.
As the old adage says : "A chain is no stronger than its weakest link." the new leadership will have to show their economic and political sagacity to identify "the weakest link" in the chain of their unity to precept an obvious assauli on it from any side. The enemies always hit at the weakest point to settle their score.