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AS I SEE IT

D Minus 5 : Countdown or Meltdown?

Ikram Sehgal writes from Karachi
THE third and final Pathfinder Poll 116-25 Jan 97) ascertained the preference of the electorate in 75 cities and towns on a much more comprehensive basis, including most of the rural areas not fully covered in the two earlier polls confined to only 30 cities and towns. Two vital queries had been added, viz 1) whether elections or accountability first? and 2) the voter preference lor candidates in different constituencies ? In Punjab. Sindh and NWFP a majority did want accountability first but overall a slight majority (5 per cent) of the populace favoured elections first, mainly because In the urban areas of Sindh, mostly the deprived MQM. wanted elections first In overwhelming numbers.
The translation of voter preference to seat acquisition oy political parties remains a somewhat inexact science in Pakistan, particularly because of the "first past the post system. Imran Khan’s Tehrik-i In-saaf (Tl) displays nationwide support of almost 1 per cent, averaging about the same in all the Provinces, but has only 3 seats projected in the National Assembly (NA) to show for it. In the NA seat for the Islamabad Capital Territory. Benazir’s Pakistan People Party (PPP) is ahead at 38 per cent to Mian Nawaz Sharifs Pakistan Muslim League [PML (N)| al 32 per cent with TI a distant third at 22 per cent. The PPP vote has been buoyed by PML (N) turncoat MNA. Haji Nawaz Khokhar's vote bank going to PPP as well as the fact that PPP candidate Nayyar Bukhari has always been a strong candidate even in previous NA elections.
However there are indications that Khokhar s supporters may not toe his line and will still vote PML (N). Out of the 1765 people who responded to questions in the Punjab in 34 cities and towns, a solid 42 per cent supported PML (N) with only 21 per cent for PPP and 3 per cent for it's PML (Junejo) ally, making a total of 24 per cent for the Pakistan Demo-
cratic Front (PDF), the PPP-PML (J) alliance. The TI followed al 16 per cent with noncontestant Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) at 4 per cent and Ghinwa Bhutto's PPP (Shaheed Bhutto) at 2 per cent. In actual seat counts for the NA in the Punjab. PML (N) Is favoured to win about 73 seats while PPP is ahead in 22 seats with PML (J) expected to get 3 seats. For the Punjab Assembly consisting of 240 seats. PML (N) with 141 seats has an overholding lead over PPP's 61 with ally PML (J) getting only around 8 seats. It's 16 per cent support Province- wide in Punjab gets the TI only one seat. In the NWFP. PML (N) at 23 per cent is leading in voter preference of the 577 voters approached in 17 cities and towns, slightly over the PPP at 22 per cent but when you add ANP's 14 per cent to PML (N). the grand total (37 per cent) of the alliance is much more than the PDF count of 27 per cent’when including (PML (J)'s 5 per cent.
Tl is at 17 per cent. JI (9 per cent). PPP (SB) 5 per cent with others such as Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) clocking in with 6 per cent votes concentrated in certain areas. PML (N) Is projected to get 9 NA seats and its ally ANP 6 seats while PPP has 4 and its PDF ally PML (J) 1 seats. The JUI (F) should get 2 seats. For the Provincial As sembly which has 80 seats, the results are startling as PML (N) despite leading in voter percentage (more than 6 percentage points) agreed to give away more constituencies to ANP to preserve the alliance. Result is the ANP should get 30 seats while PML (N) only 14. PPP has 10 and PML (J) 4 seats. JUI (F) has 5. but there are a large number of independents who may get elected, as much as 14. In Sindh where 966 voters were requested to give their choices to a menu of various questions in 17 cities and towns, both PPP and PML (N) had equal support
at 21 per cent except that PML (N) support was spread throughout the Province as was the 12 Kcent support of TI but the
’ support along with PML (J) at 4 per cent was mostly focussed in the rural areas.
PPP (SB) clocked in with mainly rural 11 per cent support, most of it because of the crossing over of mainline PPP rebels. Caretaker Chief Minister Mumtaz Bhutto's Sindh National Front (SNF) has little electoral support but would get about 4-5 seats in the Provin cial elections because of seat adjustment with PPP (SB). In contrast. most MQM support (17 per cent) is in their major urban strongholds of Karachi and Hyderabad. This translates into
focus of seats in rural areas for the PPP hoping to get 12 seats in the NA while the urban area is dominated by MQM's 14 seats. PML (N) gets 6. PPP (SB) 7 and PML (Functional) of Pir Pagaro only 1 seat. Independents (at least 2 aligned with PML (N)) are favoured to win In 5 constituen -cies. For the Provincial Assembly PPP could get as many as 42 seats but Is short of an absolute majority (at least 51 In a house of 100 seats). MQM follows not far behind, favoured to win In 29 constituencies. PML (N) is on target for 8 seats while PPP (SB) 6 and SNF 4 follow with Independents winning in 6 seats. PML (J) is expected to win in 1 constituency and PML (F) in 1. Tl's 12 per cent spread gets it no seats.
In Balochistan. 241 voters were requested to answer questions in 7 cities and towns. PML (N) and TI were tied at 23 per
cent each with PML (J) at 16 per cent and PPP at 11 per cent A large number of voters (13 per cent) were still undecided, while PPP (SB) had 3 per cent support. JI 4 per cent and MQM 5 per cent. In seat count, however, the results &re mostly area/tribe represented. For the NA. PPP. JUI (F) and Nawab Akbar Bugti's Jamhoorl Watan Party (.JWP) stand to get 2 seats each, while Balochistan National Party (BNP) headed by Sardar Ataullah Mengal. Balochistan National Movement (BNM) and Balochistan National Movement ((Hayeel (BNM (H)| and Pakhtoonkhwa Mill! Awami Party (PKMAP) 1 seat each. While in the Balochistan Assembly of 40 seats, the fragmen-
tation is even more acute, with the largest group being independents (9). followed by PPP and BNM 5 seats each. PML (N) 4 seats. BNP. PKMAP BNM (H) and JWP 3 each. JUI (F) 2 seats while new entrant Awami Qia-dat Party (AQP). PML (J) and PKM (AL) are on course to get 1
There are at least 9 independents sloted to win Nawab Zul-flkar Ali Magsi. the former Chief Minister, has already been elected unopposed as an independent. PML (N) with 88 seats in the NA and its electoral ally ANP (6 seats) make a total of 94 MNAs between them are near the magic figure of 109 seats to get an absolute majority in order to form the government at the Centre. The PDF alliance. PPP 45 seats and PML (J) 3 are quite a ways behind with a projected total of only 48 MNAs. It is expected that MQM
with 14 seats and PPP (SB) with 7 seats will Join the ruling coalition with a number of independents. The FATA tribals are likely to follow suit. Mian Nawaz Sharif is. therefore, on course to lead the Federal Government with a comfortable majority in the NA.
The PML (N) with about 141 seats projected in the Punjab Assembly is clearly placet! to establish the government in the Punjab while an ANP-PML (N) alliance is on course to form the government in the NWFP Despite the surprisingly strong projected PPP showing (42 seats) in Sindh, one expects it to be in the Opposition with the cobbling together of a post-elections alliance of MQM with PML (N). PPP (SB) and SNF with a number of independents Joining in with one of the political Fiarties in the ruling coalition.
n Balochistan, who will form the government is anybody's guess as the permutations and combinations thereof among the parties is quite mind-boggling. Maybe Nawab Zulflkar Ali Magsi can repeat his last Houdini act as Chief Minister, maybe Nawab Akber Khan Bugti's JWP will lead the alliance. It is also quite possible BNP’s Sardar Ataullah Khan Mengal can be the leader of a new coalition. In any case the fragmentation of parties makes any safe guess Impossible. Balochistan will have more of the same.
The pre-elections polls show that the PPP suffered mightily because of the 3 years Zardari reign. Its vote bank has been eaten into mainly by Imran Khan's TI in all the Provinces but especially by Ghinwa Bhutto’s PPP (SB) in Sindh. With political survival at stake and Zardari away from the scene. Benazir Bhutto has fought back courageously to remain in contention. It has been quite a performance in the circumstances. PPP (SB) has benefitted enough
lor it to be In line for a possible slot in the ruling coalition In the Centre as well as in Sindh, but TI has been left way out in the cold in spite of Its strong showing voter-wise nationally. Tl has less than half the seats JI normally gets to show for its performance nationally or in the Provinces. TI should be proud to have made a statement of sorts but has no real future In the present electoral system. Some of the problems can be traced back to lack of time for preparation, bad organisation and logistics as well as very poor selection of electoral candidates. Unless Tl learns that politics is the art of compromise. its supporters stand to be nearly completely dlsenchan-frised because of the present "first past the post" electoral system There is a strong case here for 1) Proportional Representation (PR), and 2) a run-off vote ie. if the first election does not yield an absolute majority (50 per cent plus) in any constituency. A Joint Electorate is a must simply because the competition for Minorities seats Is a farce, they are not largely contested and are not really representative of their communities. Above all there is need for a National Census on an urgent basis and fresh delimitation of const!tuences thereof. Fully 60 per cent of the people of the country now live in the urban areas but have only 40 per cent of the seat allocations in the Assemblies whereas rural population (40 per cent) has 60 per cent of the seat allocations ie. less than half the cake given to their rural cousins.
For Mian Nawaz Sharif, winning the elections after 3 years out in the political cold will be the easy part, the problems Pakistan faces are daunting enough for any person. Mian Sahib has to exercise checks on his close aides and advisors, the type of opportunists who failed Benazir. They may now try and out-do Asif Zardari. Mian Nawaz Sharifs control over them will be the measure of this success, in that success will He the future prosperity of the country.