The furore that has erupted over the Sept 5 by-electlons Is very, very alarming, and bodes ill lor the fragile future of this land of promise and immense potential. The statements demanding the immediate resignation of the CEC failing which there might be widespread agitation, is reminiscent of events that unfurled Just a few years ago. The party (ies) in power may soon reap their harvest for confrontational seeds sown in the recent past. And while all this is going on, the public at large and the economy are being subjected to body blow after body blow. At a time when Bangladesh so desperately needs some modicum of political stability, and at a time when so much optimism was generated by the June 12 elections, it truly is depressing to sense that an atmosphere of hopefulness is on the verge of evaporating again.
Both the government and the opposition must share responsibility fo<; maintaining the peace but a, close scrutiny of events during the last three months or so by any impartial observer lead to the unfortunate conclusion that the BNP is out to create trouble merely for the sake of doing so. While the AL and its erstwhile allies, when they were in opposition, put the country through considerable heartache, had the government of the day been more flexible and less arrogant in their ap-Eroach, they would very likely ave been returned to power by the electorate. More importantly. the demand for a caretaker government was a perfectly reasonable one on its own merits, given that the BNP itself had come to office through a
similar mechanism. The installation of a caretaker administration to oversee polls was widely hailed and welcomed. and in fact it is an innovative institution that many other developing countries should emulate from us. The BNP lost the June 12 polls, fair and square, because the electorate felt that the alternative should be given a chance to prove its mettle.
The BNP refusal to accept the electoral verdict leaves one at a loss of words. They have instead resorted to insulting the caretaker government, the CEC. international and local observers. and have actually started to believe voices in their own head which say that there is a bureaucratic conspiracy being hatched against them and a cirtlian coup has taken place. In reality, it is almost impossible for any developing country to have a completely free and fair election but the outcome of the June 12 Bangladesh polls were a reasonably true reflection of the electorate's wishes and the BNP will do its re-election campaign in five years time (or perhaps sooner) a wealth of good by respecting the outcome.
As far as the by elections are concerned, an analysis of the 15 seats shows that the BNP might have valid cause for concern in three seats. Lakshmipur-2. Chittagong-1 and Sylhet-4. However, it would appear that in Lakshmipur. the choice of the BNP candidate (a JP defector) was the main reason for the very narrow victory of the AL candidate (who was further assisted by the withdrawal of the JP candidate), and in Chit tagong-1 the narrow margin by
which the AL's Mosharrai Hossain lost to Khaleda Zia on June 12. and the huge margin by which he trounced the BNP choice. M A Jinnah, on Sept 5. probably Indicates that the electorate decided this time to support their" man. Mosharraf Hossain. In the absence of a leader of the stature of Khaleda Zia. In Sylhet-4. Imran Ahmed lost to Saifur Rahman by less than 300 votes on June 12. whereas on Sept 5. Imran Ahmed won by a margin of some 6.000 votes over his near est rival, an Islam! Oikya Jote candidate; the BNP did not even figure this time. In the Bogra seats where the BNP has been returned by large margins, local BNP party officials have opined that the voting was very fair I If anyone was the loser this time around. it was the JP with H M Ershad losing two safe seats in Rangpur and It is they more than anyone else who should theoretically cry foui.
In all likelihood, the Sept 5 results, like those of June 12. were a balanced and fair representation of what the electorate wanted. The BNP should and must accept this. If they continue their present tactics of stubborn and unreasonable rejection. they will lose further support in the days ahead. That is the stark reality and a bitter pill to swallow. The BNP is the major opposition party with considerable country wide sup port and they stand a real chance of returning to office next time around but only if they rethink their approach and strategy to one of criticism and obstruction on sound and workable foundations.
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