***The BUP conducted a national survey in late April 1996, which included questions relating to the forthcoming elections. Some 50 per cent of those polled declined to answer the question as to which party they would vote for or said that they had not yet made up their mind. Of the other 50 per cent, 19 per cent favoured the Awami League while 17 per cent favoured the BNP, with 10 per cent opting for Jatiya Party, 3 per cent for Jamaat-e- Islami, and 1 per cent for other parties. Another survey .was conducted by the BUP during 26-30 May 1996 in 13 constituencies of Dhaka. In this survey, 34 per cent of the respondents either did not answer the question or said that they had not yet made up there mind. Of the other 66 per cent, the support expressed in favour of the Awami League and the BNP is exactly the same at 29 per cent, followed by Jatiya Party at 5 per cent, Jamaat-e- Islami at 2 per cent, and other parties at 1 per cent.***
HE whole nation is I looking forward to June 1 the 12th eagerly with high hopes. Free and fair elections on the day will put the country on a more secure democratic foundation, and will generate a more secure basis for building the future. The nation will as a result be able to march towards 21st Century and the new millennium, which are only a few years away, with confidence and pride. Confidence because the environment can be enabling, focused on renewal and reconstruction. And pride because it will strengthen the opportunity for a democratic social order to flourish, raising the prestige of the nation in the world. As an optimist. I envision this scenario to .emerge.
Both the President and the Chief Adviser have repeatedly assured the nation that free and fair elections will be held on June the 12th. The Chief Election Commissioner has also repeatedly expressed his determination to ensure free and fair elections. The campaign by the political parties nave been gaining. increasing momentum. Understandably, there are now expectations and uncertainties Jn all camps.
Public opinion generation and its utilization in national policy making processes remain neglected in Bangladesh; and opinion polling is yet to be developed and organized here. No doubt such polls are indicative of.the pulse of the voters and may not always be accurate even in countries where poll taking has a long history and is properly organized. In Bangladesh, this activity. that encourages public participation and raises public awareness in electoral and public policy making processes, is of recent origin. Over the Mst year, a few organizations have started conduct-
Ing such polls. Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad (BUP) has been regularly implementing public opinion research on a wide range of subjects since the early 1995.
On the value of public opinion polling relating to elections, one may note that in the Polish presidential election last year, polls correctly predicted a close defeat of the Incumbent president. Polls also indicated the poor showing by the Congress Party and a good showing by the BJP In the recent Indian elections. Polls found Incumbent Israeli prime minister losing ground fast from a commanding lead some months ago and predicted a narrow win for him in last week's Israeli elections; in the event, he lost narrowfy. One important thing that the opinion polling does is to plug the ordinary people into debates regarding national as well as local policy making processes.
The ^BUP conducted a national survey in late April 1996. which included questions relating to the forthcoming elections. Some 50 per cent of those polled declined to answer the question as to which party they would vote for or said that they had hot yet made up their mind. Of the other 50 per cent. 19 per cent favoured the Awami League while 17 per cent favoured the BNP, with 10 per cent opting for Jatiya Party, 3 per cent for Jamaat-e- Islami. and 1 per cent for other parties. Another survey was conducted by the BUP during 26-30 May 1996 in 13 constituencies of Dhaka. "In this survey. 34 per cent of the respondents either did not answer the question or said that they had not yet made up there mind. Of the other 66 per cent, the support expressed in favour of the Awami League and the BNP is exactly the same at 29 per cent, fol-
lowed by Jatiya Party at 5 per cent. Jamaat-e- Islami at 2 per cent, and other parties at 1 per cent.
In February 1991 elections, all the 13 seats of Dhaka covered in the latest BUP survey
were won by the BNP The re spondents ol ilie present sur vey were also asked as how they had voted in 1991 II was indicated by '48 per cent that, at that time, they had voted for the BNP. and by 19 per cent
that they had voted for the Awami League. It is therefore clear that there has been a substantial swing in favour of the Awami League compared to 1991. This read with the national survey conducted in
April 1996 would indicate a favourable position for the Awami League. However, the voters who were either undecided or did not answer the Jiuestion could make a big dif-erence and. I suspect, they will make up their mind on the basis of how the top party leaders and the candidates come through to them as the campaigns proceed.
As an independent observer, I would like to make the following few comments. I have observed that over the past few years the Awami League president Sheikh Hasina has matured admirably as the leader of a major political party that is aspiring to lead the nation. Since the caretaker government was installed. her performance has been sensible, constructive and purposeful. She has also . done something, the like of which is very rare, if at all. In this country. She has apologized to the nation for any shortcomings and failures of the Awami League government that was briefly in power in that extremely' difficult and trying period following independence in 1971.
It is my understanding that the chairperson of the BNP. Khaleda Zia enjoyed a broad-
based support during the initial years of her Prime Ministership. But she (hen lost touch or failed to come to grip with the overriding national policy issues either by default or because of a lack of focus on her part. Let me mention one event, which I have referred to in several of my writings. She gave a keynote address at the FAO Headquarters in Rome on the World Food Day on 16 October 1992. 1 was present in the audience as an FAO invitee. In her speech, she showed a sensitivity to a serious predicament Imposed by the economic reforms programme in the context of poverty alleviation. It was a courageous statement highlighting severe restrictions imposed by the economic reforms programme on the government’s ability to address poverty Issues the way they should be. given the prevailing realities. Unfortunately, the challenge issued in that speech never had any reflection on the policy making process in the country. Moreover, as time went by. she became increasingly isolated from the reality on the ground and the people at large, perhaps as a result of her becoming a prisoner of the coalition of sycophancy around her. One also notices an air Of arrogance in the speeches that she has been making since relinquishing the post of the Prime Minister.
The future of the country is dependent on the kind of leadership that will come to power following the 12 June elections. I am sure, in free and Tair elections, the people will make the right choice. And for that leadership to perform well, national consensus on major issues facing the country will be needed. Therefore, a process of dialogue and consultation would be necessary. One institutional mechanism that will need to
be established is effective local government with appropriate devolution ofroower. Others may include advisory mechanisms involving experts and knowledgeable people at various levels of administration — from national to local — on Important issues such as economy. education, and environment. Public opinions generated in different legitimate ways may also be used profitably not only in the policy making but also in the democratization process.
In the meantime, however, it is the 12th June that all eyes are focused on. Let sanity that returned with the establishment of the caretaker government prevail and a new administration is voted to power by the people in free and fair elections. Finally. I wish to fully endorse the view expressed by Mr Mahfuz Anam. editor of The Daily Star, in his signed article titled "Army Leadership Must Think Twice Before Allowing Itself to be Used Politically’ in the 4 June issue of the paper that no one must try to use the army for a political purpose and that the army leadership must not allow itself to be so used. Indeed, the army has performed its assigned functions very sensibly, refrafhlng from interfering with the political process since the fall of Ershad autocracy. Internationally also, members of our armed forces have earned, name and fame as UN sponsored Keace keepers under very azardous circumstances in different parts of the world. In my travel around the world. I have, with pride, heard it .mentioned that Bangladeshi armed forces were performing praiseworthy peace keeping functions internationally. We do not have much to be proud of. Let this image of our armed f->rrAS not be tarnished.