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'Further meaningful price rise in Asian bourses likely'
SINGAPORE. Feb 17: The current surge of funds into Asian bourses bear similarities to the situation that drove the market to euphoric highs in 1993, but price rises may be less dramatic, according to Salomon Brothers, reports AFP.
The US investment house said in a weekly Asian equities report received here yesterday that "Further meaningful price appreciation for regional markets is likely, given our expectation that liquidity flows will remain positive."
But it added that earnings growth and domestic interestrate conditions are "somewhat less favourable now." which suggests that price rises, although attractive, "may be less dramatic than they were two-and-a-half years ago."
While the inflation pictures are broadly similar, the "key difference" is many South East Aslan economies "have been showing clear sings of excess demand" judging from "high external deficits and rising Inflationary pressures."
It cited higher monthly in--flttion readings in Thailand ' and the Philippines.
Asian bourses opened strongly this year following the US Federal Reserve interestrate cut in December, along with expectations that more funds would shift to Asia if booming Wall Street went into a correction.
Salomon Brothers said that while US Interest rates are now very close to their late-1993 levels, domestic interest rates in Asia "are^generally less
Rates in Thailand and Indonesia are "significantly higher" than they were in late 1993 and those In Malaysia are firming.
The comparison Is better for Singapore and South Korea, and Taiwan's rates should ease to end-1993 levels, it added.
The report said stock valuations in early 1996 were close to levels at the start of the 1993 bull run." but earnings growth is generally less ro-
"Combining the market and macro comparisons, there is no market (in Asia) where the interplay between fundamental conditions, profit growth and trailing valuations Is superior
to the circumstances in late 1993." it said.
For Asian markets to duplicate their 1993 feat, "improvements on the earnings and interest rate fronts must be seen or even more forceful liquidity flows must be felt." Salomon Brothers said.
It said "gains of a smaller scale than the previous surge are likely, particularly given memories of difficult market conditions in 1994 and 1995."
A monthly journal of the Stock Exchange of Singapore (SES) published here Thursday. said Hong Kong and South East Asian bourses managed to Improve market capitalisation despite being dogged by bad news through most of 1995.
Unlike in 1994, when many ended the year in negatlve-frowth territory, most mar-ets weathered the sluggish sentiment well, according to the SES journal.
Leading the pack was the Jakarta Stock Exchange, which posted a 46.62 per cent ?growth in market capitalisa-ion to 152.24 trillion rupiah, it said.