***While the PM's wish not to appear to buckle under pressure is fully justified and understandable; for her to appear indifferent, uncaring and dangerously irresponsible IS NOT.***

Aman tripped and fell off from the 50th floor of a skyscraper. As he was falling down, another person from the window of the IOth floor asked How are things?' "So far so good’ was the reply Most of ns may have heard this joke But none of ui saw it in real life, as we are seeing now II is so far so good for us But where are we heading? Do we know? Does anybody know''

For several days now 1 have been going around talking to the lop notchers (except the very top) of both the opposi Bon and the ruling parties, asking them what s going on. and what’s likely to happen? " Wait and see. everything will be all right" »ay some, "Something is bound to happen say others, " A last minute solution will surely come” say still others. Behind these inane optimistic nothings’ they seem to know very little. They all have some idea of who said what, and to whom . even perhaps when. But none had any notion of what is really being done to solve the crisis. When I pointed out that first the vacation of the opposition seats, and then the dissolution of the parliament, (even if we consider that the election schedule can be postponed) have made all our actions time bound, and that we have to act within that boundary unless we want to violate the Constitution, everybody said " We know but what can we do? Tell that to the other side. They are responsible for it"

There Is a thinking inside the ruling party, proponents of which believe that there is no need for any understanding. Things will fall into place once the election fever acquires full swing. Opposition, they say. will not be able to resist that swing, and if it tries. It will split. Opposition parties will have to lake pari in the elections. If they don’t then their members will desert them, and join the polls. "We will take full advantage of it. and help that process." For this group, there is no need to exert for any understanding. Already Begum Zia has conceded too much, they feel.

II may be recalled that it Is the same group who advised Begum Zia two years back that opposition will not be able to maintain its unity and therefore there is no need to pay heed to its demand. So BNP for long two years ignored what the opposition was saying, both inside and outside the parliament At one stage BNP even felt that considering the opposition demand was to give more Importance to it than II deserved. So the beat thing was to ignore it.

Subsequently when the threat of opposition s resignation came about, the same group said "The opposition can never resign. How can they give up their perks and privileges. Plus when the crunch really comes, their unity will break." We know how terribly mistaken this view was. and how fundamen tally flawed BNP s strategy was dealing with it.

Now this group is this telling Begum Zia that the opposition will not be able to pull off its election boycott plan. "When the time comes, either they will be forced to join or the opposition will split on the issue ’ So there Is nothing to worry. Just wait and see.

There are two reasons why I recount the above. First is to show how ill advised Begum Zia has been all through. It was one miscalculation after another by her party stalwarts which she, in her turn, was too eager to believe, that led us to the present mess. If the Prime Minister was not misled as to the seriousness of the opposition's position, if she was given a proper assessment of the strength of the unity against her. if she was told that the concept of the "neutral caretaker government" to oversee the next election has struck a chord with a large number of our citizens, then she might have acted differently.

The difference in her action does not necessarily mean that she would have acceded to the opposition's demands. She would have Just handled

things better and more Intel ligently. It could have been that she would have made a better attempt to bring her case to the people It was only the other from when the ruling party really tried to tell the people what It stood for For a long period BNP's strategy was to Ignore the oppositions demand Which In reality meant that the ruling party carried on Its business as usual, while the opposition did all the mass contact.

The second reason why I recount the above Is because the PM continues to be ill advised even now. as she has so far been If seen in totality, the concessions made by the BNP chief is considerable She has now moved to the position of: ajresigning 30 days before elections: b) agreeing to an in terlm government on a five plus five plus formula: c) agreeing to the President being the centrepiece of "caretaker".

administration to supervise the elections. These are significant concessions for an elected Prime Minister to make. And yet. with all these give aways she has not been able to get the political and public opinion dividend that she should have got. The reason being that she gave too little, too late, with the result that none of her concessions made the desired Impact, and she was left with the political stalemate as before. There appears to be a total lack of any sense of timing. No politician is worth his or her salt, unless she/he knows that In politics what is valid' today, may not be worth the paper it Is written on tomorrow. Timing is. on occasions, just as important as the substance of the issue.

The most dramatic example of this missed timing', and how Begum Zia made concessions and did not gain political

credit was her decision to resign 30 before the electtons It was a significant concession, and one. If made on time, would solved almost all the problems We remember at that time opposition leaders telling us that If she agrees to step down as the PM we will give up all other demands Al that time BNPs position was i hat Begum Zia was not only the heart and soul of the party but the very symbol of all Its successes She cannot be allowed to step down It will mean that she admits that she cannot deliver a free and fair election So while the opposition said ’ We will accept any body but Khaleda . BNP replied ' We will agree to everything else, except the removal of Khaleda" Remember the evening of 28 December 94 On that occasion the op position said that just a public announcement of Begum Zia agreeing to step down be-

fore the elections will be enough for us not to resign BNP found that too high a price to pay to keep the parliament intact. Yet within 24 hours of the opposition resigning, she made that very same, significant concession, and did announce In public that she would resign But the difference was that she du I not get her part of the political dividend - a full parliament -. and the consequent goodwill from the public.

Thia is not to suggest that the opposition does not have its own huge share of the blame for the present crisis. It Is our firm view that resigning from the parliament was a disastrous mistake for which the people of this country will perhaps never forgive those leaders. It was a betrayal of public trust with incomparable political and social consequences. Its other serious flaw was not to have paid sufficient

attention to the constitutional implications of Its demands This one single inattention is responsible for the most intn cate legal compiicatton that we now face

While the PM s wish not to appear to buckle under pres sure is fully justified and understandable for her to appear indifferent uncaring and dangerously irresponsible IS NOT She seem to put herself and the opposition on the same plane thinking perhaps that if it can be irresponsible, arrogant and stubborn so can she As the Prime Minister, even tn the interim capacity as she is now. it Is she who will have to act and extricate the country out of this crisis

Let us examine the options before Begum Zia She has two First to go for elections without caring who joins in and who does not. In this case meaning the combined opposi tlon The likely consequences of this course of action are a) her next government ( she is the likely one to form it as the only leading contestant) will be devoid of the moral authority and all round acceptability that an elected government, by definition, enjoys, b) it will be rejected by all the opposi tlon parties, and as such It will be crisis ridden and unstable; c) its claim to adhere to the norms of democracy will be severely compromised; d) her next government will be compared to Ershad s post 88 government This comparison would be a devastating blow for Begum Zia, especially as she did so much to. first discredit. then topple and finally punish him.

All the above are only relevant if the opposition does not resist the holding of what they call a one party election And it has declared that it will. In that case what we are looking at is a free for all. violence ridden election in which majority of the peace loving voters will not participate. Even if the army is deployed, and an election process is shown to be completed under its strict supervision, of what political

gain will it be to a leader like Khaleda Zia? Her reputation as a fighter for democracy, as a leader of the people as a uncompromising crusader for i he rights of the masses, will be significantly damaged, and replaced by an image of someone who destroyed the process of universally participated election because she refused to relinquish the levers of government machinery . while participating in the elections Let it be clear to Begum Zia that the constitutionality of her arguments will be far outweighed by the suspicion of abuse of power to win the elections Why on earth win she want such a reputation for herself’ This course of action, therefore. Is NOT A OPTION for her Those of her advisors who are goading her to take this route will prove to be as much correct as they did earlier

The other option for her is to take the steps so that all political parties especially the major opposition ones, participate In the coming election

As we understand, a broad agreement on the fundamentals already exist -a government with the President as the centrepiece, being helped by a few nonpartisan advisors The opposi tlon wants the PM to resign first before they sit for talks. The PM wants everything sorted out before doing so. Now this really a logistical difference. and one for which the whole election process cannot be jeopardised WHY NOT BOTH TAKE PLACE SIMULTANEOUSLY? This is quite possible. Through secret negotiations everything Is worked out. Then. In a televised programme. PM resigns and the opposition announces acceptance of an election for mula.

We have argued, we have appealed, we have urged and we have pleaded. What do these two leaders want this nation to do. before they will agree to be sensible. Arrogance has led many politicians to disaster here, and elsewhere. That, by itself, may not be all that bad. The tragedy is that they drag the nation with them.