Experts said yesterday that it wotdd be premature to foresee a '88-like flood condition this time. But they did not outright reject a possi bility either.

The country is poised to undergo added flood vulnerability as the rain shifted from the southern regions to wards tir northern by the influeiKe of a very active monsoon, thes said.

Monsoonic rainfall began to concentrate in the northern half of the country" from yesterday. In addi tion. migrators water from the hilly areas across the border is contribut ing to the saturation of major rivers here in Bangladesh, said Md Sajedur Rahman, Deputy Director of the Storm Warning Centre in Dhaka.

Rahman said an worse flood situ ation developed in 1988 as both the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins experienced severe rainfall at a time in the middle of August

A meteorological expert said the country might be vulnerable to a flood of that level if both the basins are subjected to heavy rainfall at the same time as a result of recurring monsoonx depression.

The flood situation could furtlier deteriorate following the shift of rainfall towards the northern districts, officials at the Meteorological department and flood forecasting wing of the Water Development Board said. The downpour in the northern belt could overflow rivers and adjoining plain lands on its way towards the Bay, they said.

In June, the country experienced a surplus rainfall of 10,287mm as against the normal 10,000mm, according to Met office data. Monsoon depression is a significant weather event in Bangladesh. Five to seven depressions form in the Bay during the rainy season ranging from June to September and cross over the country and the adjoining Indian coast An average of 72.5 per cent of the total yearly rainfall occurs during this period, according to Met experts.

"It is not the quantity of precipi tatkm but its distribution throughout the season which is the critical criterion in determining flood and drought vulnerability." said Sajedur Rahman.

Met office sources said that the rainfall in the current season was about 26 per cent less than during last year and was around 30 per cent higher than in 1993.

Meanwhile, the flood forecasting wing foresees a sharp rise of water levels in all the major rivers during the next 24 hours. Bralimaputra will flow-32 cm above the danger mark at Chilmari point, 45 cm at Bahadurabad, 9 cm at Sirajganj while tlx (ranges will flow 31 cm above danger level at Bhagyakul and 8 cm at Goalondo points.

Waler levels of rivers Surma and Kushiara may also register a steep rise at downstream points, sources said.