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A Gamble, but it Could Come Off

Derek Ingram from Hong Kong reports on the prospects for a seamless transition in 1997
***At the top level China and the Hong Kong government led by Chris Patten are not on speaking terms. Lower down the line, things are very different. When the Hong Kong chief of police went to Beijing he was given VIP treatment, and at the border officials are in a working relationship all hours of the day.***
HONG Hong Governor Cluis Patten is the last in a line of politicians Britain has sent to handle the final stages of tricky decolonisations.
Before he took up the post of Governor of Hong Kong in 1992 it was freely said in London that the Colony should have a politician as its last ruler. Now many people are saying it was a mistake. History may take a different view.
Currently the Governor's relations with Beijing could hardly be worse. He is called a monster, and the chief Chinese negotiator, Lu Ping, refuses to talk to him. Lu has just visited Hong Kong again and studiedly ignored invitations to talk from Patten and his Chief Secretary, Anson
Chan, who could be a candidate for the job of first Chief Executive after the transition.
The idea of Patten as a monster is ludicrous. He is one of the most amiable and intelligent politicians Britain has produced in the last part of the 20th Century. It he had not lost his seat in the 1992 election in Britain the former cabinet minister might now be the only leader who could save the Tories from electoral oblivion.
As it is, he will sit it out in Hong Kong until the Union lack comes down at midnight on 30 June 1997 and miss the next British election which must be held at the latest a
few weeks before that date.
Patten and the British government of John Major which he serves have taken a gamble in Hong Kong. It has been cheeky to introduce some form of democracy in the last two or three years after ruling the colony autocratically for a century-and-a-half.
The British are trying to leave a small democratic legacy to reduce the risk of repression by having an elected legislature and local government, an independent court of final appeal and retaining freedom of expression. Some strong voices say Patten is not doing enough; others would rather he did none of this.
The Chinese say they will have none of the reforms. The business community is largely hostile because it says a bumpy transition is bad for business now and after 1997. There is little indication so far that the politics have upset business or investment.
The controversial building of the new airport has gone ahead regardless of the political quarrelling. But however smooth the ride, there is bound to be some uncertainty in the countdown to China's resumption of sovereignty.
The 1989 Tiananmen Square riots rocked the colony and helped to politicise some of its people, pro-
ducing demonstrations such as had never been seen there before.
But Tony Miller, Hong Kong's Director-General of Trade, points out that local investment hardly blipped in 1989. For five years after Deng Xiao ping kicked open the door in the late 1970s, income from hotels, port facilities, railways and ports went up 15 per cent a year. Hong Kong became the world's biggest container port, still growing at a million boxes a year.
Then there is the lingering on of Deng and the current political maneuvering and rumour-mongering in Beijing.
The longer Deng remains on the scene the less time there will be for the dust to settle before the Hong Kong handover.
Given such recent history as the Cultural Revolution, it would be surprising if Hong Kong people did not wonder what the future can hold. It will not pay any political leader in Beijing to be seen to be giving ground to Britain. Lu Ping nad a hard time in China during the Cultural Revolution and he needs to play tough until he is sure who his post-Deng masters will be.
Patten's aides point out that the vilification of the Governor of Hong Kong and the language used are nothing new. The Chinese have quarrelled with every governor. Abuse and rhetoric are part of Chinese political life. When the much respected Governor Sir Edward Youde died, an outpouring of popular sentiment in Hong Kong said he had been killed by the strain of negotiating with Beijing. British Prime Minister Mar garet Thatcher was personally subjected to abuse from Deng himself during-early negoua tions. They later became friends
There are those who say the gamble by Patten and the British is futile and ask what cards Britain has left, given that they are handing over power anyway in two years time. The answer is that the cards are still strong.
The Chinese cannot afford to let Hong Kong slide. Its prosperity is vital to China's prosperity. Its expertise and its infrastructure must be kept. Investors must not be scared away.
People now flow back and forth between China and Hong Kong on a huge scale. The forftialities at the border have become minimal as the growth of the hinterland gathers speed. The Chinese dilemma is how to import the economic ideas without the political ideas. What if the people of China become restless because the people of Hong Kong enjoy rights denied to them?
Worries in Beijing on this score have led to political quarrelling on a number of issues, while at other levels the transition proceeds smoothly. These days the train from Kowloon (part of Hong Kong) to Gwangzou (formerly Canton) is non-stop. It is kriown as tne through train.
In the graphic language with which the Chinese describe political processes, the hoped-tor seamless transition in 1997 is known as the through tram. The Chinese how say the through train is no longer possible, although relations between police, customs officials, anti corruption officials arid in many other areas are proceeding virtually without a hitch.
When Honk Kong Police CommissionerJEddie Hui Ki-On went to Beijing recently it was like a royal visit. He was feted, taken to the Chinese police chief's home village and pictured on television.
Day-to-day cross-border liaison is paperless. Similarly Chinese liaison with Hong Kong’s highly successful Independent Commission Against Corruption (1CAC) is close.
Witnesses can be inter viewed in cities either side of the border. Both sides are worried that corruption will rise after 1997; indeed, it has already risen in Hong Kong in the last two years
The public view is that there is a "make a fast buck before 1997" syndrome, but the Commissioner, Bertrand de Speville is not sure yet. He is strengthening the Commission s committees, making it more open, and seeking greater powers. The Chinese are happy for the ICAC to remain in operation after 1997.
All this may be a better pointer to Chinese intentions than the Patten-Lu Ping quar telling, which takes the form of rows over such matters as the handing over of official files (China wants them sent to Beijing, Britain says they will be handed over to the next administration in_Hong Kong), the make-up of the Legislative Council (China says it will abolish it and start again), and the Court of Final Appeal,
The Patten reforms may or may not be swept away in 1997 The Chinese have al ways shown themselves capable of U turns Much of what is happening now looks like diplomatic by play and blustci The British like the word posturing/
What everyone seems to have overlooked is the fact that there will almost cer-tainlv be j different government in power in Britain by 1 luh 1997
A Labour government's Hong Kong policy r unlikely to .litter greatly from that of the lories In opposition Labour has supported the present policy, But the change in London will give both sides a chance to save face — some thine he Chinese might particularly welcome
In tnat case the Chinese inav make far fewer changes than many people in Hong Kong presently tear And the Patt' n gainble could pay off.