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Commodity market: Oil price collapses, copper surges
LONDON, June 26: This week saw a great upheaval in the commodities market as oil !>rices crashed by over a dol-ar after a meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), while copper cash prices soared to a five-year high, reports AFP.
Prices on the physical market jumped to exceptionally high levels as worldwide copper stocks fell dramatically, and the other base metals lifted on the back of copper. Tin was also at a high since August 1992.
Oil moved in the opposite direction, with prices diving after a disappointing OPEC meeting in Vienna.
Dealers fear not only a rise in production of non-OPEC countries — like Norway — but also the possibility that the organisation’s production ceiling will be raised in 1996.
Elsewhere, rubber continued its downward motion while cereals strengthened further on fears of a decline in world stocks.
GOLD: Slight depression. After a strong performance lest week, when prices rose to 391 dollars per ounce — the highest level for one and a half months — gold slipped this week, hit by a firmer dollar.
•Gold fell by between one and two dollars towards the end of the week, to below 390 dollars per ounce.
The market was also wlongfooted by rumours of
gold sales by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
But the overall market trend remains upward due to' the continued decline in south African production, dealers said.
SILVER: Steady. After last week's rally, the price of silver remained at around 5.45 dollars an ounce, little influenced by gold's fall.
PLATINUM: Calm. The Erice of platinum remained at ast week's high levels of around 440 dollars per ounce.
Dealers said the market was unmoved by the announcement of a merger of the platinum activities of the British conglomerate Lonrho and of South African mining group Gencor, creating a giant in the precious metals world.
COPPER: Higher. Copper for three month delivery ■jumped some 40 dollars during the week, ending at 3,011 dollars per toppe, while the cash prices soared to a high since April 1989, lifting to 3,158 dollars per tonne.
Dealers said copper monopolised attention on the London Metal Exchange ILME) this week, with the backwardation widening to 147 dollars on Friday.
LEAD: Lifting. Lead rose by seven dollars during the week, ending at around 633 dollars per tonne, lifting only
slightly in the wake of copper, dealers said.
News that workers at Canadian zinc and lead producer Cominco voted last Friday for strike action in the event of failing to agree a new labour contract had already been factored into the market price, they added'. Lead stocks fell by 8,050 tonnes to 245,950.
ZINC: Up. Zinc prices lifted by some 15 dollars to 1,040 dollars per tonne, in a market lacking news, dealers said.
ALUMINIUM: Higher. Aluminium jumped some 50 dollars during the week to 1,845 dollars-per tonne, helped by positive stock downdraws, dealers said.
A 19,275-tonne drawdown in midweek LME warehouse stocks and figures from the International Primary Aluminium Institute (IPAI) showing only a 100-tonne rise in average daily production iti May compared with April, helped prices, they added.
Elsewhere, on the con sumption side, European tin plate manufacturers are claiming that they will be able to gain a large share of the aluminium canning market over the next two years GNI said.
They also believe that the cost of changing lines may force can manufacturers to make shifts in production
which would not be easily reversed, the dealers added.
Weekly stocks fell by, 45,175 tonnes to 725,050.
NICKEL: Jumping. Nickel lifted some 560 dollars during ■ the week to 8,440 dollars per tonne, lifted by gains in copper and aluminium, dealers said. Otherwise, there was little news, they added.
TIN: Soaring. Tin prices jumped around 80 dollars to 6,800 dollars per tonne — the highest level since August 1992 — while cash prices 120 dollars to 6,940 dollars per tonne, with a backwardation of 140 dollars.
COCOA: Slow. The price of cocoa on the London mar ket was little changed, fluctuating around 950 pounds per tonne on a quiet market.
Dealers at GNI said, however, the market was showing signs of picking up an was "technically better oriented", although fundamentally conditions are mediocre and the 1995 harvest is considered too large
COFFEE: Difficult. Fears of a further cold snap in Brazil ian plantations towards the end of the week failed to ere ate the expected rise in prices which dealers predicted could be the calm before the storm
SUGAR: Higher then lower Prices climbed to more then 320 dollars per ton, the
same level as last year's highs, after large-scale investment fund buying in New York encouraged Dy a temporary tightness in the physical market.
German Research Group F O Licht, however, predicted a Freduction surplus of 3 milion tonnes over 1995-1996, while the British trader E D and F Man expected over-{reduction to reach 1.7 mil ion tonnes.
Production this year promises to be much higher than last year's mediocre levels with record production in Thailand, Brazil and Australia, dealers ^aid.
At the end of the week the speculators Retreated and prices dropped back below the 320 dollars per tonne bar rier.
VEGETABLE OILS: High er still. Vegetable oil prices in Rotterdam climbed on the strength of growing demand, except for soya which traded hesitantly due to cliniatic changes in the US.
The soya price hovered around 96 florins per 100 kilograms, affected at the end of the week by the onset of humid weather in the US which could benefit young shoots and boost production
Palm and sunflower oil Firices rose by around 20 dol ars during tne week to 675 and 735 dollars per tonne re
spectively.
OIL: Collapse. In a rare development, the reference price for Brent crude North Sea oil dived by more than a dollar over a few days, going from 17.70 dollars a barrel to 16.40 after rumours from the OPEC meeting and a weaker oil market in the US.
At the beginning of the week, the price dropped by dozens of cents to its lowest level since march in reaction to a comment attributed to Venezuelan Oil Minister, Erwin Arrieta, in which he failed to rulp out a suspension of the current quota system governing OPEC in 1996.
The end of production ceilings for all the oil producing members of the organisa tion would almost definitely result in higher production among the main exporters, notably the largest Saudi Arabia.
Although the Venezuelan Minister later denied these rumours, saying that it was too soon to talk of any changes, the harm was already done
Seriously weakened, the market received the knock out blow on Wednesday when on the oil market in New York prices fell dramatically after huge sales by refineries anxious to offload stocks be fore prices reached even lower levels
The US traders had per-
haps secretly been expecting some good news from the OPEC meeting Monday and Tuesday in Vienna. But the oil cartel merely confirmed the existing production ceiling of 24.52 million barrels per day until the end of 1995.
The Centre for Global Energy Studies (CGES) expects downward pressure on oil prices in the second half of 1995 as a result of production by non-OPEC members.
RUBBER: Collapse The London reference price tumbled further by over 10 pounds to 985 pounds a tonne after rising production in South-East Asia.
"Production has been above the norm during the wintering period" for the rub her of this region Jdmiary to April) said a British dealer
In addition, consumption in the US is beginning to fall oh and tyre manufacturers are holding back on purchases tn the hope of further price falls
The dealet said there was no reason why prices may not leach even lower levels
CEREALS: Steady Prices remained stable at a high level with an average of I27 pounds for a tonne of wheat and 105 pounds tor barely >>n prospects of lower world mix k^ and increasing demand
The Its maikei moved up wards with a growing number
>t dealers expecting supply to drop iollowing disappointing Autumn wheat harvests this summer in North America.
At the end ol the week, price' in Chicago climbed on the strength ot rumours of sales to t hina.
In the view of the Londonbased Economist Intelligence Unit (E1U), wheat prices are likely to react to the slightest problem affecting the har vest. ’ in thy coming weeks.
TEA: Respite. After weeks of decline, the market held steady at a low level. Fundamentally there, is still a downward pressure on prices in London due to the arrival of poor quality stocks and depressed demand. The price of medium quality teas ended the week at an average of 100 pence a kilogram
COTTON: Calm The benchmark cotton outlook price indicator remains at 0 97 dollars a'pound, a low since February after last week s crash in prices caused by a higher than expected US
(he futures market in i Imago took off mid week in the midst ot tears that har vests in the southern belt could suffer from cion disease caused be high humidity
WOOL: Decline Die reference pi we in Bradford Northern tngland. nded six txtu. down at ‘•06 pence a ilotuam deptewd by the liight i iiuinN t ot bale* on »ale hi the AiiMi.iluii market.