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Commodity markets: Prices of base metals, sugar soar while tea irregular
,LONDON. Oct 30: The prices of base metals appeared m defy the law of gravity this week, soaring on speculation and increasingly firm fundamentals, reports AFP.
Copper led the complex upwards as dealers expect i here to be a shortage of the metal in November, while copper aluminium, zinc. lead, nickel and tin all registered between two and four-year highs.
Oil rose steadily on increasing demand as refineries reopened after the summer maintenance period anti began to buy crude oil supplies for the winter period.
Elsewhere, prices of all agricultural commodities rose or remained stable with the exception of coffee, which dropped after better weather conditions in Brazil.
GOLD: Regular. Gold traded in a narrow range between 388 and 390 dollars per ounce as the market waited for the US third quarter GDP figures, which will indicate Inflationary pressures in the market.
Dealers fear that a stronger than expected figure will cause a rise in US intereSt' rates, which could in theory strengthen the dollar and weaken gold.
Elsewhere. Japanese conglomerate Sumitomo Corporation predicted that Japanese demand'would rise by two pet cent in 1994 to around 30C tonnes, of which 115 tonnes would be used for Jewellery.
SILVER: Fluctuating. Silvei fluctuated nervously betweer 5.3 and 5.4 dollars per ouna on speculation. One dealer sale the market was "fundamental!' weak' in view of the. large
amount of world stocks.
PLATINUM: Finn. The price of platinum anti palladium — both metals are used In the production of catalytic converters — remained firm on strong industrial demand and as Japanese buyers took advantage of the stronger yen.
Platinum rose to above 420 dollars per ounce, while palladium went above 160 dollars per ounce,
COPPER: Rising. Continued strong demand worldwide and speculative buying boosted copper 60 dollars to breach the key 2,600 dollars per tonne level for the first time since January 1991. rising to 2,640 dollars.
One dealer said '• had become evident that there was not enough metal to satisfy demand in November as the housing and car markets gradually recover.
Traders at GNI damped market enthusiasm, saying that at these prices, producers holding reserves will be strongly tempted to sell the metal.
Weekly stocks on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 3.325 tonnes to around 335,075.
LEAD: Higher. Lead was pulled higher In . the wake of copper, lifting around 12 dollars to 670 dollars per tonne — its highest level since 1992.
The metal rose at a slower rate than the rest of the metals as It was hindered by a continued rise In stocks — up 1.025 tonnes lo 371,150 tonnes.
The market was also affected by disappointing figures for the use of lead in Japanese car battery production, down 0.5 per cent in September
compared to the same period In 1993.
ZINC: Jumping. After several weeks of weak fluctuations prices rose by around 50 dollars to around 1,130 dollars per tonne — their highest level since February 1993, after large-scale stock downdraws.
Encouraging figures from the European Zinc Institute (EZI) showing world production stocks had dropped by around 20.000 tonnes also helped prices.
Weekly stocks on the LME fell by a massive 27.275 tonnes to 1.211.300 tonnes.
ALUMINIUM: Soaring. Aluminium Jumped 100 dollars during the week to around 1.840 dollars per tonne — its highest level since November 1990 —as a speculative wave hit the market.
But Angus Macmillan, an analyst with Billiton Metals, said the price rise was exaggerated.
He said that although the world plan to reduce production. signed in February, ap peared to be holding. It could break down in the first quarter of 1995 if prices continue to rise, as producers could Increase output.
One Russian producer, however, said his country would not flood the market with low-cost aluminium and that Russian exports would fall by between 200.000 and 300.000 tonnes in 1994. and by the same amount in 1995.
Weekly stocks on the LME slumped a massive 62.050 tonnes to 2.058,975 tonnes.
NICKEL: Rising. Nickel prices rose by around 300 dollars to 7,350 dollars per tonne — their highest level since
August 1992 — after investment fund buying and in the wake of aluminium.
Analysts predicted a sharp drop in stocks as demand rises, with year-end consumption at only 12.5 weeks.
Certain • dealers. however, said prices were inflated and could drop back next week on profit-taking. • . . -
Weekly stocks on the LME rose 1.296 tonnes to 149.262 tonnes.
TIN: Sharply higher. Prices rose to around 5.900 dollars, per tonne — their highest level since January 1993 — as the metal lifted in line with the rest of the complex.
World production of tin fell by 10.55 per cent in the third quarter of 1994. which also encouraged the market.
Weekly stocks on the LME fell 880 tonnes to 30,340 tonnes, .
COCOA: Firmer. Prices rose around 15 pounds to 985 pounds per tonne during the week on worries about low exports from Ivory Coast, the world's largest producer.
Although the harvest began several weeks ago. deliveries to the ports are arriving slowly — less than-20,000 tonnes has been delivered so far.
Large-scale rainfall caused rhould to appear on the cocoa beans, affecting their quality and leading dealers to wonder if the harvest would be as large as expected.
Another cause of worry Is that Abidjan is studying the possibility of raising taxes on its coffee and cocoa exports. This would have an immediate effect on prices, as the Ivory Coast supplies a third of the world's cocoa.
Elsewhere, the International Cocoa Organisation (JCCO) predicted that the deficit in the world's cocoa production would be less than expected, at only 75.000 tonnes in 1993-1994 (October to September) compared with 102.000 tonnes previously predicted.
The downward revision Is mainly due to lower than expected consumption by Russia. Germany, Britain, the Netherlands and Japan. Around 2,48 million tonnes is expected to be consumed worldwide this year compared with production of 2,43 million tonnes.
COFFEE: Lower. Rain has been relatively plentiful in recent days in Brazil, causing • prices to fall by around 200 dollars to 3.500 dollars per tonne, as dealers worried less about shortages in the harvest.
The dry period which has recently hit Brazil had delayed and damaged the flowering process of the coffee plants and reduced the 1995-96 harvest.
The arrival of rain allowed the plantations to return to a normal cycle, although the harvest had already been hit by two cold snaps in June and :Ju)y. cutting the harvest to only 14 million bags (each of 60 kilograms) compared with 20 million this year,
SUGAR: Soaring the price of refined sugar jumped to its highest level since July 1990 at around 345 dollars per tonne on fears of a cut in Brazilian exports.
Brasilia has decided to impose a 10 per cent on its sugar exports to limit supply and protest the internal market. Last winter a shortage in sup-
ply pushed up domestic prices and aggravated inflation.
Exporters have petitioned the government to abandon the tax but so far without success. Brazil is the world's second largest producer.
• Prices on the futures market also rose on news of a sharp cut in the sugarbeet harvest in the Ukraine and on rumours of imports in Algeria and Iran.
One dealer, however, estimated that the rise in price was essentially speculative without much fundamental support.
VEGETABLE OILS: Higher. The price of the main vegetable oils rose on the Rotterdam market in the wake of soya, which was boosted by rumours of Chinese buying and lower than normal stocks on the US market.
Palm oil remained firm as the producer stocks are low and demand is still strong. One dealer said Indonesian pro--duction which normally reaches a peak at this time, was low after a dry period.
OIL: Higher. The price of Brent Crude North Sea Oil rose steadily during the week, getting up through the key 17-dollars-a-barrel on Thursday on strong demand from refineries.
Nick Antill. a specialist with Hoae Govett, said the rise was mainly due to the reopening of several refineries closed for maintenance during the summer.
"The refineries have increased demand for crude oil as they stock up for the winter season." said Antill.
Prices were also boosted by a record weekly drop of 5.8
million barrels in US stocks, reflecting sharply rising 'consumption.
The breakdown in the US pipeline which serves the East Coast due to flooding also contributed to stronger prices on the US markets.
Elsewhere. British production in the North Sea rose in September to its highest level since April 1988. with an average of 2.57 million barrels a day. the Royal Bank of Scotland said.
RUBBER: 1-ower. Prices fell to around 870 pounds per tonne on profit-taking lifter recent speculative rises on the Japanese, market
World demand, however, remained strong on a cut in production in South-East Asia. Malaysia, the world's third producer, has seen production drop by five per cent in the first eight months of the year to 676.986 tonnes.
Analysts said Malaysian exports should drop by four per cent in 1994. compared to 1993. and by 2.2 per cent in 1995 to 900.000 and 880.000 tonnes respectively.
GRAINS: Firm. Grains prices remained firm during the week on the European market, with wheat rising one pound, to 105 pounds per tonne, and barley little changed at 101 pounds per tonne.
Prices were little affected by a three point cut tn the European Union "seat-aside" rate, which should see the European grain harvest rise to 3.5 million tonnes in 1995.
One London dealer said this year s poor harvest should cut slocks to the bare minimum, so much so that the European
grain surplus should be welcomed by the market.
One Chinese importer, told dealers that his country will not import any more this year. The news surprisingly, had no effect on the French market which had been expecting a record purchase by Beijing.
The Chicago market fluctuated during the week despite the prospects of large-scale sales of US wheat. A record drop in world stocks has caused demand for US grain to rise.
The International Wheat Council (IWC) estimated that the 1994-95 world harvest (July to June) would be the worst for six years, at only 530 million tonnes —r 28 million less than the previous year.
The decline is mainly due to a drop in Australian produc-'tlon after the worst drought since 1972. The harvest is expected to drop to 7.5 million tonnes — half that of the previous year at 16.9 million tonnes.
TEA: Irregular. The price of top quality teas rose 10 pence to around 200 pence per kilo, with certain teas from Uganda and Assam from India particularly sought after.
Medium and poor quality teas remained stable at 112 and 84 pence per kilo respectively. Ceylon teas dropped between three and five pence.
COTTON: Higher. The reference prices rose to 0.75 dollars per pound after speculative buying on rumours of Chinese Imports, and a rise in world demand.
WOOL: Higher. Prices rose 23 pence to around 4.51 pounds per kilo on a rise in exports on the Australian market. particularly to China.