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Saudi economy needs massive restructuring, experts opine
ABU DHABI. Oct 29: Low oil prices coupled with huge payments for the Gulf War and growing debt have pushed Saudi Arabia into a corner, when- it is left with no choice but to borrow, curb lavish spending and restructure its government-dominated economy. say experts, reports AFP.
The world's leading crude producer and exporter has apparently become unable to secure cash at will, its once vast overseas investment empire has tumbled under heavy expenditure. and world credit bodies that used to rush in at the first signal .have become sceptical about its’financial capability.
"That is not all/ a Gulf banker said. "After years of be ing a capital exporter. Saudi Arabia has become a pure capital importer and this has greatly upset its balance of payments and drained its foreign reserves."
From more than 100 billion dollars a year in the early 1980s, Saudi Arabia's revenues
from crude exports stood at around 43.5 billion dollars In 1993 and are expected to be slightly lower In 1994 due to weaker oil prices.
Given its heavy dependence on oil income. Its gross domestic product will likely record a negative growth in 1994 although the strengthening private sector will again register positive growth, according to Saudi bankers.
The current account, which had recorded a persistent surplus during the oil boom, suffered from a deficit of nearly 12 billion dollars in 1993. 19.4 billion dollars in 1992 and a record 27.6 billion dollars in 1991.
The high figures were due to financial contributions to the Gulf War of more than 50 billion dollars, part of which Is still being paid. The kingdom's budget deficit also hit a record 54 billion dollars in’1991.
Saudi Arabia, which produces nearly 12 per cent of the global oil supplies and
whose crude reserves exceed a ■ quarter of the world total, as not revealed its debt but independent estimates put it at more than 25 billion dollars, excluding military debts owed to the United States.
"Saudi Arabia is having problems with securing cash because it is paying large sums every year (o honour its Gulf War commitments in addition to debt repayments abroad and debt to local banks." a Saudi banker said.
"That is why contractors in the kingdom often complain about delays In government payment of their dues. This sometimes compels the government to seek more loans from the banks to meet its obligations to contractors."
Saudi Arabia has launched an industrialisation drive to di-versify its economy but despite progress, non-oll industrial exports do not exceed 2.5 billion dollars a year, only five per cent of the crude exports.
Weak oil prices and ’ high spending have exhausted more
than half Riyadh's overseas assets of nearly 120 billion dollars while its reserves with the International Monetary Fund have plummeted to around 6.5 billion dollars this year from 11.6 billion dollars in 1991 and 22.6 billion dollars In 1987.
According to the Wall Street Journal, cash shortages have forced the Saudis to delay a six-billion-dollar order of up to 50 aircraft from Boeing and McDonnell Douglas. 85 per cent of which will be financed by the US Export-Import Bank. President Bill Clinton, making his first .Middle East trip, is expected to discuss the deal when he visits the kingdom late Friday.
Another .newspaper, the Financial Times, said on Wednesday the availability of short-term export credit insurance for.British companies doing business in Saudi Arabia had been sharply reduced because of the kingdom's "very grave".