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To the Editor...
Population and development
Sir. The other day. representatives of 160 or more nations of the world met in Cairo for the UN .International Conference on Population and Development. The UN estimates that the world population could double by the year of 2050. reaching the 10 billion mark — more dramatic predictions speak of as many as 19 billion by the end of the next century.
The forum, third in 20 years, addressed some vital is- * sues like family planning, contraception. education and abortion. Despite threats frdm fundamentalist terrorists, religious objections from Muslim fundamentalists and orthodox church — the Pope, the meeting discussed the rights of the women especially the right to choose when to have children.
But the whole approach, as certain critics say. is flawed by and rested on five 'Great Myths': 1. Population size can be predicted and controlled; 2. Overpopulation has an adverse effect on human welfare: 3. There is a huge unmet demand for modern contraceptive services in the Third World; 4. Introducing contraceptives to lower fertility rates: and 5. .Population size can be controlled without coercion.
The end of the world was predicted right from the beginning of the past 2000 years, due to over-population. Doom merchants' who have predicted enormous population growth leading to a hell' on the earth have repeatedly got it wrong. As early as in the 2nd century Tertullian. the Christian Philosopher, alarmed that the population of Britain was almost one million and
was predicting famine,, war and earthquakes to reduce the number. Thomas Malthus, the tgreat population ’ projector.
panicked his generation of politicians and leaders with his population theory 1798. In the 19th century, economist-Stanlay Jevons called for population controls after predicting that coal reserves - would be exhausted resulting failure of industrial revolution. In'"1969. Dr Paul Ehrlich, a respected biologist, said in his book. The Population Timebomb. "The battle to feed humanity is over. In the 1970s. the world will undergo famine — hundreds of millions of people, are going to starve to death." As late as in 1972. the Club of Rome, a group of internationally respected economists predicted that by the year 1994 gas. petrol, silver, tin and mercury would be exhausted alongwith many food items.
None of these predictions has been realised. World popu lation took its own course everytime predictions were made and adjusted in the way as if desired by some power from above. And human exis _ tence remained a reality.
However. living conditions definitely deteriorates in a country where conditions are not conducive for uncon-trolled/runway growth of population — small in size, less resources, poor education, political turmoils, mental state of people etc. etc. Whatever may be the thinking or planning in the developed nations. countries like Bangladesh would need to organise its won Action Plan to reverse the present situation — larger families with the poorer sections and birth-rate decrease with the well-to-do
Considering voluntary family planning and state-determined population targets are intrinsically inconsistent. We in Bangladesh have- to take a path by which the above situation could be reversed.
Cot (Retd) Mirza Shafi BanartL Dhaka
Dhaka Stock Exchange
Sir. Recently I went to visit Dhaka and stayed there for fivtv days,. The trip was so short that 1 could not even see friends of my days of Dacca University. But 1 made some time to go to see trading on the floor of Dhaka Stock Exchange. The trading on the floor is done, the way it was done 100 years ago in New York Stock Exchange. There is no liquidity in the market. But there must be enough buyers and sellers in the market. 1 also made some inquiry how to buy stocks in large quantities, to hold for long term, but nobody could help me not even an international bank in Dhaka.
One bank gave me information" that it can handle Investment Account up to Taka one lakh whereas I was looking for opening account to buy stocks worth five lakh Taka very year for the next five to 10 years. That's how an institution buys stocks for its account. I had a feeling that the country was marching toward the path followed by all other countries in the region like Indonesia and Thailand. We can also prosper like all other countries in the region if we do things smartly Let me give a few tips, as I feel how the market economy works:
* Create an environment of competitiveness through private sector: government sector will control Arm Forces. Postal services and may be Police. The rest should be in the private sector.
* Hire a consultant from USA or Europe who may advise how to repair the lousy image we have in the world. Everybody thinks, Bangladesh is asking donation not investment. Let ail nations know we only accept capital for investment not donation.
* Automate Dhaka Stock Exchange and create liquidity so that people will invest through stock market. We can seek help from'one of southeast Asian countries which has done it.
* Concentrate on improving image of the country, international marketing and in some cases lobbying. Advertise in financial newspapers of world to attract investment capital and use commercial section of all embassies in Dhaka
* Participate in all trade shows in all continents.
* Increase the draft of Chittagong and Mongla ports
* Build another international airport, may be in Chittagong.
* Free entry and issue visa at the airport and put no restriction on any item other than drugs.
* Give maximum export incentive to exporters of merchandise produced using our labour Allow free flow of capi tai, no restriction whatsoever
* Let government sector employees know that they are nothing but employees of the people they must not act In a way that might prevent prosperity of the country For then
they may also lie fired and have to look for jobs in private see tor where they will get pay according to only what they produce.
Ekram Be lai 20 Radnor Ct. Hicksville. N Y 1.1801
What to plant now — tea or rubber?
Sir, Tea is one of the major export items of our country. Nearly one third of our annual production of tea is consumed locally and the rest is exported. Last year, our tea export, rq^rketwlse, was quite alright as we could sell it above the actual cost of production, but this year the price has dropped sharply. In 1993 our average tea price was Tk 49 per kg but now it is only Tk 38 per kg at our Chittagong auction market. There Is possibly no tea estate in our country which can produce tea at a cost below Tk 40 per kg. Therefore, the situation appears grim to me, a tea planter.
By now. the world tea production has increased considerably In some countries of Africa, tea is produced nearly 15000 kgs per hacye while we. in Bangladesh are produc Ing below 1000 kgs. The Africans are going for ad mirable and quick expansion of tea plantation and are planting high yielding and superior va rlety of tea saplings As a result tea production In that region will be further Intensified and will ultimately meet a high percentage of the world tea demand Till August 1994. Sri Irinka has produced more than 12 million kgs of tea. nearly 40% of I he total annual export target of our country Due to
the high quantity of production their cost will surely be lower Ilian ours. and buyers will surely go to them to procure their requirement considering both ■ competitive price and quality.
Considering the present situation we must give a serious thought to find out a suitable and long lasting crop which can support and subsidise our tea Industry. Rubber may possibly be the best chosen items, as we can meet-only 30% of our present requirement from our own sources, and the balance has to be imported. If the areas presently under tea plantation which have a yield 500 to 600 kgs per hactre are replaced with rubber, the situation will hopefully be better, in course of time. In the process, our yield per hactre of tea. will go above 1500 kgs and will definitely minimise our pre sent cost of production.
The demand of rubber as a raw material will increase day by day and it will be safe to plant rubber as we now import nearly 70% of our present requirement. After about seven years of planting a rubber plant begins giving latex and its cost of production is less than that of tea Many tea estates have adapted rubber plantation schemes. which need to be extended as soon as possible.
Our Government and financial sectors should think over the matter seriously, and pro vide all possible assistance under a mandatory rubber pianta tion programme, with the help of bank loans for the greater Interest of our economy and thousands of workers engaged in our tea Industry
Modus Samad Chowdhury Phultota Tea Estate Sythet