***For six years, war has been raging between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the enclave of Nagorno Karabakh. broken only by a four-month ceasefire punctuated by cross-border shelling. Peaqe talks are continuing in Europe. But now there are warnings that other countries could be drawn into the conflict***

THE fragile ceasefire In Nagorno Karabakh. a disputed region deep in the heart of the Caucasus, may not hold any longer as fears grow of an Imminent attack from Azerbaijan.

The fertile, mountainous region close to Iran is just 165km by 65km and home to a mere 150.000 people. It was here that the term ethnic cleansing was coined, a phrase more commonly associated with Bosnia- And like Bosnia, conflict in Karabakh is a legacy of the Soviet leader Stalin and the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Since 1988. Nagorno Karabakh — a Christian enclave within predominantly Muslim Azerbaijan — has been caught up in a war of self-determination against the government in the capital. Baku. If Karabakh's survival is threatened, neighbouring Armenia — also Christian — warns it will send troops.

There are indications that Turkey Is supplying military help to Azerbaijan. Some observers fear its long-term aim could be to revive Turkish influence across the region. Other countries view the potential flashpoint with dismay. Iran has a sizeable Turkish minority and is understandably concerned. Russia has offered to send in peacekeeping troops. The deal has yet to be agreed. There are fears that the conflict could become an •international one.

'This is a particularly critical one that could mushroom." warns United States Congressman Frank Wolf, who recently visited the region.

An uneasy ceasefire was called after Karabakh managed to drive Azeri trodps from its borders and take the hinter-

land which separated it from Armenia.

It was a dramatic turnaround. Two years ago Azeri troops overran 40 per cent of Karabakh. bringing the death toll tp an estimated one-tenth of the population. Today, by keeping a buffer zone between

itself and Azeri forces. Karabakh is able to keep its villages beyond range of missile and artillery attack.

The conflict has created up to a million refugees, and ac cusations of atrocities have been levelled against both sides. Armenia says it will return occupied territories and let the refugees come back if a deal is struck to let Russian peacekeeping troops come In.

Politicians are at pains to say that this is not a religious war. Even so, on the frontline sit some 2,000 Mujahedin mercenaries from Afghanistan; Turkey Is maintaining a five-year blockade of Armenia, and there are allegations that the conflict Is being partially funded by Saudi Arabia.

"Of course’there are some political forces in Muslim countries who are trying to change the character of this war to make it a religious one." claims Karabakh MP Zori Balayan, “but Armenians have lived together with Muslims as neighbours for centuries and we exclude the idea that it is a religious war."

So who does history say owns Karabakh? Until the fifth century it belonged to greater

Armenia. It was partitioned by the Romans and ruled by a succession of empires until falling under Russian domination.

In the 1920s, the Communist Party declared that Karabakh belonged to Armenia. But Stalin, pursuing his policy of divide and rule, retained It In Azerbaijan.

In 1988. the enclave voted to secede, but the Kremlin hauled it firmly back under Azeri rule. Thousands of Armenians were driven out of Azerbaijan. Thousands of Azeris were forced to flee Armenia. Ethnic cleansing — on both sides — had begun.

In 1991, the Azeris began Operation Rings, a policy of ethnic cleansing in northern Karabakh. Widespread human rights abuses were reported by the Russian Andrei Sakharov Memorial Congress. In Maraghar. villagers had their heads sawn off. Western human rights observers, on the scene within 36 hours, saw exhumed bodies lying on the ground.

A referendum in Karabakh again called for independence. And as Soviet forces withdrew in 1992. the Azeris took over

the Red Army positions and, launched an attack.

The people of Karabakh were surrounded. Farmers with hunting rifles confronted tanks and armoured personnel carriers, but with little success. Karabakh was failing.

Galla Saoukhanln. 29. was among the refugees driven from the village of Nakhi-chevanik: "Can I forget the scene when I saw the children without arms, without legs? For months my children were crying»wfthout stopping.''

Then the tide began to turn. The lightly armed Karabakhls captured the fortress city of Shushi by driving their few vehicles around it at night reviving their engines to bursting point. The Azeris were tricked into believing a major counter-offensive was on the way and they fled along a corridor left open by the Armenians. Shushi was secured and missile attacks on the capital of Stepanakert were halted..

But now Karabakh intelligence claims Azerbaijan is marshalling its forces for a fresh offensive.

Says State Minister for Defence. Vasgen Sarkisian: "I am sure now-that If in two or three months Azerbaijan doesn't come to negotiation, they will try to make another attack, if not in autumn, perhaps at the beginning of spring." — GEMINI NEWS

ANDREW BODY Is a British freelance Journalist and author.