THE third United Nations sponsored Inter national Conference on Population and Development opens in Cairo today. Sept 5 The UN puts on sueh a conference once every 10 years The first population conference was held tn Bucharest In 1974 and the second. in Mexico City In 1984 Like the earlier two the Cairo conference also will fo cus on global population growth and its Implications for the human society and eco nomic development The con ' ference will (hen draw up a plan of action for the next decade — based on consensus among the participating na tlons — numbering 150 or so. As )t happens, certain components of the draft plan of ac tlon to be considered by the conference, have generated waves of controversy world wide Impassioned arguments, heated debates — even anger — featured the phase marking the run-up to the conference. Indeed, it is a question if the conference would reach a consensus on a programme of action for next decades, or degenerate into acrimony — ending up on a note of discord, as it closes on Sept 13.

Such Is the plethora of the points and counterpoints being made about the issues in dispute that It gets to be difficult at times to see through the maze. It is said that the language of the draft plan of action encompassing future global population policies had had to remain fluid enough to suit the diverse nature of the participating nations economic conditions, social cus-

toms. moral and religious compulsions All the same, drafted this way. the document also lends itself to a variety of interpretations, often conflict Ing What follows in these columns now. has mostly been culled from news media re ports Chanees of slip ups remain Still. It'S worth a try to And out what is the tumult all about

First comes the consldera tlon of global population growth profile The low. medium and high variants of the United Nations population projections range from a low of 7 27 billion people In the year 2015 to a high of 7 92 billion The UN alternate projections put the world population by the year 2050 at a low of 7.8 billion people anti a high of 12 5 billion By and large. It is the population policies pur sued by the nations of the world In the coming decades that would make the differ ence In growth rates The lat est projections come from the annual report of the UN Population Fund, published last month According to the re port, world populaUon hit 5 66 billion this year and would grow to 6 billion in 1998 8 5 billion by 2025 and 10 billion by 2050. assuming continued declining fertility There will thus be too many people crowding the earth, runs the argument, unless a more balanced population growth Is en su red There are dire forecasts that unbridled population growth will only Increase the incidence of poverty and hunger, malnutrition and dis easf worsen environmental degradation and. above all. deny humanity a sustainable future.

The world then should show an Increased awareness of the perils of population ex plosion and act with more de termination to contain the growth rate The target is to stabilise the world's population at 7.27 billion by 2050 Subsuming a heightened international concern over the issue, the draft action plan for the Cairo conference seeks global consensus on certain guidelines for shaping popula tlon policies in the next decade In effect, the document attempts at refining the focus of action on population issues by Identifying women as the catalytic agent for limiting the size of the family and this Is where trouble erupts.

It s not so much a question of equality of men and women. Indeed, that is not an Issue at all. Rather, It Is a question of recognition of the Importance of women s contribution to family planning As the UN Population Fund asserts, re cent findings contest the view that poverty is the main bar rler to Increased recourse to family planning Instead, it says, these findings identify a direct link between Individual choice and family size and when women, even poor women, are offered a real choice, they opt for fewer children.

So then the Issue is to create a population policy frame work that would enable women to exerejse their choice about family size freely To this end. the draft plan of action seeks inter alia, empowerment for women to apply thetr rights in family planning Among other things, the document also says Women should have ready ac cess to quality health-care ser vices that include reliable In formation, counselling and medic al care to enable them to terminate pregnancies in those cases where il is allowed by law. if they so decide Does this proposal advocate legitimizing abortion as a means of controlling family sizes? Proponents of the move assert that it does not. The proposal, they say does not endorse abortion as such. Rather. It seeks to establish women's right to safe, legal and voluntary abortion. They also point out that the recommendations would not be binding anyway Women can exercise the right to abortion only if natlopal legislation permits

Opponents of the move disagree They say that the pro posal is designed to establish universal right for women to demand abortion when they decide so This they argue, is incompatible with the tents of religion and moral values Such a measure. they assert, would only encourage premarital sex and other forms of licentious behaviour They are not Impressed by arguments about reproductive health and safe motherhood As for the draft action plan s proposals being non-binding, they aver that once an International right to abortion is established na tional legislations can but only follow, leading to calamitous consequences for the world

The draft plan of action contains certain other highly controversial proposals too For instance, the move for acceptance of non traditional families, is-being read as sane tlonlng single mothers and homosexuality Likewise, the recommendation urging par ticlpatlng countries to promote responsible and healthy reproductive behaviour among l he leenagers has been interpreted as encouraging secret Illicit sex

It also needs be noted that population growth rates vary from country to country By and large increase in population has come to lie regarded as an overwhelming affliction for the poorer countries. It is estimated that most of the population growth in the coming decades will occur In the poorer nations — some «ay as much as ninetyfive per cent of It. Population Is growing slowly in most of the rich countries — Is even in absolute decline In some The proper tion of geriatric people Is on the increase in richer socl eties. Some of the richer na tlons also allow controlled mi-

er* Uon of people from densely populated countries Develo ping countries themselves have come to acknowledge lie need for reducing population growth Yet even at the 1974 Bu< barest conference develo ping countries were heard expressing misgivings that the talks of a population programme were really meant to keep the poorer nations off world s resources Let us hope that the Cairo conference will not revive fears of richer societies trying to impose I heir norms of social behaviour on the poorer nations of the world

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WHILE the Cairo con ference strives to strengthen linkages between population policies and sustainable development. It may be of interest that there is a school of though who believes otherwise There are mainstream population economists who argue that the scarcity of world’s exhaustible resources is at most a minor restraint on economic growth They concede that under conditions of high fertility, negative effects of population growth are clearly discernible at the individual and household level However, looking at all the forces at work In the economy, matters appear less definitive They also note that there is no statistical evidence of a negative connection between population increase and economic growth. Rather, they believe that population growth unlocks resources The more people the more geniuses — that is what they say