Zimbabwe is heading lor an industrial crisis as teachers and workers threaten to go on strike, demanding wage Increases to keep up with rising prices

Reeling under the effects of the four-year old Economic Structural Adjustment Progr anime (ESAP) the employees want pay rises twice the inflation rate just to bring them back to the 1990 salary levels in real terms

Employers say that the economy cannot sustain wages above the inflation rate, now pegged at 22 per cent In 1992 inflation spiralled to 49 per cent before dropping to 18 per cent last December It has again started rising, largely be cause of the 17 per cent deval nation of the Zimbabwean dollar kijamisry

High wages, they argue will derail the country's fragile economic growth just as It is beginning to pick up following the 1992 drought

The government — under pressure from the major fi nanciers of ESAP the Inter national Monetary Fund and the World Bank — is likely to gang up with employers to ensure that the growth eoniin-

Incenaed by the recent 30 to 64 per cent^salary

liament. ministers and the president, the workets say if there has to be any belt tightening to ensure ESAP succeeds. then everyone should tighten their belts and not Just the workers

They argue that wages are not responsible for Inflation and blame the government spending for Inflation The government had promised to borrow less than 500 million Zimbabwean dollar during the current financial year which ends in June but it had already borrowed four times this amount by the first half of the year

Lawyers and teachers are threatening industrial action if they are not given a rise Step hen Mahere Secretary-General of the Zimbabwe Teachers Association (ZIMTAJ which has a membership of 50.000 out of 90.100 teachers. says teachers will not accept anything less than a 40 per cent increase. Even this will only bring them back to their 1990 salary levels They want an additional 20 per cent Increment to make sure they have a salary increase in real terms

The Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU). which represents workers in the private sector, has demanded a minimum 25 per cent wage increase At a recent meeting

of the government, employers and the' ZCTU. employers Insisted they could not sustain wage Increases beyond 16 per cent.

The government is hard put to defend lesser increments as President Robert Mugabe has publicly announced that the economy Is likely to record a 4.5 per cent growth this year up from last year s two per cent and 1992 s negative eight per cent.

A weak labour movement cannot organise a meaningful strike. Employers, aware of this, exploit the situation. Says George Makings. President of the Institute of Personnel

Management "We are very for tunate in thia country in having a non-militant workforce which rarely acta collectively against employers".

This Is not surprising as strikes are still illegal in Zimbabwe and workers can face Instant dismissal In April striking junior doctors and laboratory staff were summarily dismissed when they refused to go back to work

Under the regulations, workers have to give 14-day notice If they want to strike but even then the Minister of Labour has to approve it. Un der the Law and Order (Maintenance) Act workers In

"essential services' such as electricity, water, fuel, transport. communication — are not allowed to strike at all.

Legal advisers to the ZCTU are planning to challenge the Act as they believe it violates the constitution which guarantees freedom of expression, assembly and association

The lawyers are hopeful, having won a case in February when they managed to nullify a section of the Act which re qulred people to seek police permission before holding any procession.

But most workers are more interested In keeping their job than bothering with legal complexities Jobs are so hard to come by workers would rather suffer In silence than lose their only source of income.

Only 1.2 million people .out 'of a potential workforce of five million are In formal employment. Hundreds of new reales each year add to that total. Out of every 300.000 school leavers each year only 10.000 get jobs In the formal sector

Ironically, stifled wages are costing the employers some business as the standard of living for an average worker declines

According to the suthorita tivs First Merchant Bank s Quarterly Guide to the Econ

omy, private consumption spending has been seriously affected by a sharp erosion of purchasing power which has been caused by wages falling well below inflation

"Estimates place current incomes at only 68 per cent of the 1990 levels in real terms, suggesting that even a significant cut in Interest rates would not be enough to stimulate excessive consumer demand." it says in a paper ZCTU economist Tapiwa Mashakada argued : At a stage when the economy is moving away from being driven by supply to become one which is demand driven, the awarding of reasonable wages can only be a desirable ... policy instrument

"And st a time when government revenue Is dwindling. It la Imperative to widen the tax baae by raising potentially taxable incomes and bringing many workers Into the higher tax brackets. '

This advice may be taken up seriously as the government prepares for the elections which according to ZANU (PF) publicity secretary. Nathan Shamuayarira. are likely to be held in February

Gemini Neu»

(Charles Rukuni is a Zimbab utean freelance Journalist.)