THE rota war. m we aB know well, ended In 1989 but «x»e of the poKUca! And military atructur-ea erected to fight the war are •till in place As the Soviet system disintegrated, the Warsaw Pact just melted away but North Atlantic Treaty Organization is still afire and kicking. However, no one seems to know foe certain why It la still there. After aU. Ka raison d'etre was the perception. shared by ail the NATO countries, that the So vfet Union and Its allies pored a threat to their security. NATO was their response to this threat. Moscow, on the other hand, built up the Warsaw Pact to counter the perceived threat posed by the Western powers. Their fear of the German "revanchists" was based on historical memories. All this is history today. The NATO powers do not fear a sudden attack from any quarter. The successor power to the Soviet Union the Russian Federation or the CIS. is in no condition to attack anybody. Torn by Internal dissension, it has not yet overcome the traumatic experience of the collapse of the political and economic system built by Lenin and his heirs.
The recent confrontation between president Yeltsin and the parliament threatened to plunge the country into a civil war. Under the circumstances one is certainly entitled to ask : Who Is NATO's enemy? Its guns are aimed, as far as one can see, at no one in particu-lan A military alliance without any threat from any quarter is difficult to Justify. This, I believe. is the reason for all the awkward questions being asked about NATO. Should it • not Just wither away? Of course It can take a lot of satisfaction from the fact that it has served the purpose for which it was
created. But having served the purpose it can exist only as an anachronism. It is out of step with the times.
The break-up of former Yu goslavta and the subsequent blood bath tn Bosnia Herzegovina exposed NATO's weakness as a military alliance. Though the Bosnian episode happened in the heart of Europe and one may ssy. In NATO’s backyard, it was helpless either to prevent the masbacre of the Muslima or to resolve the crisis. NATO was not designed to deal with such problems. Its mechanisms. both political and mill tary. are geared to respond to a hulitary attack on the member countries. Absence of a common threat has removed the glue which held all these countries together. In a panic ular. the Europeans have started wondering whether they need the presence of American troops on their soil when they do not see any real threat to their security Despite these doubts about its identity neither the Europeans nor the Americans are yet ready to write tt off. Aa a super power he United States will lose an Important Instrument of Its power. Naturally they are busy redefining NATO's role in order to ensure Its continued existence.
The eastern European countries, having cut the umbilical chord with Moscow, are seeking new moorings In an uncertain world. Most of them would like to Join NATO as members. But what can NATO do with alt these new members? Even the old members
do not know what to do with the alliance. So the Americans have- come up with a new concept. Les Aspen, the US secretary of defense, has proposed to offer what he called, "security partnerships" to the central and east European countries which are seeking the membership of NATO Such partnership would strengthen contact among senior officers, set up Joint military programmes and even joint manoeuvre. But NATO would not. under this plan, assume any commitment to come to the rescue of these
countries tn the event of attack from outside. Initially the Rus ■Ians welcomed the plan but later they changed their mind. In a letter to the western leaders. Yeltsin opposed any early expansion of NATO's membership and proposed instead that Russian and NATO should jointly guarantee the security of the eastern European countries. The latter countries saw in this plan the seeds of "spheres of influence" of Russia and NATO and they all reacted negaUvely to the Russian proposal The question is ex pec ted to be taken up again on January 10 next year when the NATO heads of government will meet In Brussels. The secretary general of NATO Mr Manfred Wormer. according to
a newspaper report, expects that the summit wlD produce a "declaration In principle' which will be a compromise II will commit NATO to enlarge but with no time table and no candidates, it is doubtful that even such a vague declaration will get unanimous support. Perhaps the alliance will eventually accept the American formula of "security partner ship" for the eastern Europeans looking up to NATO for their security.
The dilemma faced by the NATO countries was very clearly explained by Lord Car
rington In a recent interview with the Newsweek. Having served as Britain's defence secretary and foreign secretary as well as the secretary-general of NATO he Is certainly well qualified to speak on the subject. He summed up the situation by saying that no one knows for certain what Is going to happen next; So the NATO countries should wisely leave it alone. Stressing the unpredictability of life hr said.' The only thing I ever learned In the defense world is that the unexpected always happens. When 1 was secretary of defense. I remember asking two questions : How many times since World War II had British troops been engaged In hostilities? The answer was 40
times. And how many Hama had the clrcusaatances been foreseen and ptana made? Otay twice " Russian fear of NATO, despite the end of the cold war. seems to be still a togntfi-cant factor tn influencing decision on the question of expansion of the alliance mem bershlp. if the eastern Europeans join the NATO It will heighten Russian sense of isolation. Further, it might disturb the growth of trust and friendly relation between the NATO countries and Russia. Given the fragility of the democratic Institutions in Russia, the western countries would like to assist and nurture the process by removing possible causes for tension, friction and distrust.
NATO's future will ultimately depend on Its most Important member, the United States. Will tt continue to support the Treaty and maintain Its troops on European soil? Will it be swept by a new wave of isolationism? No one knows the answer for sure at this lime. But the trend towards reduction of troop strength and military budget to unmistakable Germany is planning to-cut its forces from the 1993 total of 408.000 to 300.000 by 1997. France will cut its troop strength from 411.000 lo 371,000. Italy from 325.000 to 287 Turkey, which defended the southern flank of NATO will reduce its forces from a 1993 total of 480,000 to 360.000. Belgium will cut Its armed forces by half. The United States, which la often described as a global police-
■M. is ptaMtag to cm Its troops from a total of 1,7*000 to 1,356.000. Such reducttons will not make MATO exactly a toothtees Ugw tax trend towards reductton to certainly significant TW it finds Ra new rote tn the world Ma neufoers wfB. in al psaba-Mkty under domestic pressures caoriaue to nibble away at the number of troops and the defense budget. Whether MATO win as a result, gradually wither away to a matter of cor^ecture Much will depend on how the CIS and the Russian Federation succeeds In siabihring its restless minorta Ues and the nearly indepen^ dent repubbes along Its borders.
Equagy important, what wfll be shape of the power equattan between the great powers W Europe and North America and the emerging powers of Asta such as Japan China ami India? There are clear that the United States Is increaa-tnjy shifting Its at tentton to^ wards Asia. Asia has not only become an economic powerhouse but also the major trading partner of the UnNed States. If American eyes are turned more towards the Pa cific than the Atlantic, it wfll naturally affect their attitude as welj as policy towards NATO.
For the time being, however, the United States to not planning "to change its course and one can see that NATO will be lhei4 aa a political and military alliance even if tt does not exercise any significant Influence on world events Perhaps Lord. Carrington explained the situation correctly when, commenting on NATO's identity ertoto. he said. "If 1 had a clear idea of what's gotng to happen in Europe and the rest of the world over the next 20 or 30 years, then we might be able to redefine what NATO is for "