MANILA. Oct 9: Buoyed by hefty doses of foreign investment and driven by reform minded governments. Asia has sidestepped the crippling debt crisis that cost Latin America and Africa at least a decade of lost development, reports IPS

But Aslan anti debt activists warn that appearances are deceptive. They say debt time bombs are silently ticking away tn several major Asian countries.

Even if none of these explode into a full-blown crisis, debt burdened countries in Asia will increasingly find themselves adopting the sort of austerity policies that make economic growth painful to poor people and unfriendly to the environment.

"When you talk of Asia, people usually think It's only the Philippines which has gotten caught in the debt trap." says Leonor Briones. President of the Freedom from Debt Coalition IFDC). a Philippine anti-debt group "But there are in fact

Other silent crisis points In the region."

FDC hooted a consultation meeting of about a dozen Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs) from seven Aslan countries in laic August. Hie coun try reports submitted by dele gates say the region's debt problems are growing alongside its rising prosperity.

Two cases stand out. says Yoko Kitazawa of Japan s Pacific Asia Resource Centre These are India and Indonesia, two of the region s largest coun tries The totaj debt of these two countries has risen rapidly In recent vears. particularly since 1985

The Aslan Development Bank (ADB) estimates India's foreign debt will reach 82 billion US dollar this year, double the 1986 figure. Indonesia's total debt will hit about 92 billion US dollar, compared to Just 50 bll lion US dollar in 1987.

Despite the mounting pile of debts, the ADB and World Bank and bullish about these two

countries and the entire region

World Bank figure* «how Asia's total foreign debt stood al about 430 billion US dollar In 1992. up 45 per cent from 1988. Thal sum was about 29 per cent of the world debt, up from 24 per cent.

Tile region * debt service ratio had declined from about 20 per cent to 15 per cent, indicat Ing how rapid the region's exports had grown relative to the debt burden.

Exports are the key If export revenues grow fast enough, the bi inlet i will be manageable

On this point. India and Indonesia get good marks Both liave launched economic liberalisation programme* which are seen to be needed to boost export.

Thus, the ADB forecasts that India's debt-service ratio, generally seen as a key test of a country * ability to pay its debts, will continue to decline since hitting a peak of 30.8 per cent during the country's foreign exchange crisis of 1991

But some Indian economists say the country * long term debt pro*)>ect* are worrisome.

India » terms of borrowing have been getting tougher, especially in the 1980s when it gradually opened up It* econ omy. say* a paper by Biswajit Dhar of the research and Infor ■nation system for the non aligned and other developing countries.

India Is getting less soft loans from governments and more hard loans from private banks. The share of official loans Is down from nearly 90 per cent of total in 1980 to about 60 per cent in 1991

As a result, average Interest rates on loans rose gradually from 5.2 per cent in 1980 to 5.8 per cent in 1991 Repayment periods were shortened drastl cally from about 34 year* on the average to about 20.

The promtae of liberalisation is these debts will be paid off an increasingly efficient and competitive economy But so far.

especially since the mid-1980s, debt has been growing faster than the economy, says Dhar

The mid-80s were also a turning point for Indonesia, say* Willy Darmawan of the Asia Regional Fellowship Indonesia. Since that time. Its payments on Interest and loan principal have exceeded new louns.

From 1985 to 1990, this net outflow lias amounted to almost four billion US dollar and the sum will keep growing in the coming years Darmawan says

Such trends do not alarm Institutions like the ADB In Its 1992 survey of the Indonesian economy, the Manila-baaed bank noted Jakarta has kept monetary and fiscal policy tight, practising the son ol prudence that has kept the region s debt problems within bounds

Moreover, exports are expected to keep growing al rapid tales of about 13 per cent and thus ensure that country » debt service ratio will decline this year and next