**Bolivia is electing a new president today. With military rule left to the history books, it has begun to find its way back to democracy — not so easy for a country that has had 190 coups in the last 168 years. Election front-runner, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, has already helped bring Bolivia‘s staggering inflation rate under control and laid the groundwork for a neoliberal regime. But Sanchez has several opponents and the campaign has been marked by questions about the election process.
Nearly two million Bolivians are about to elect their third president in ten years of democratic rule. Quite an achievement, no doubt, for a countiy that holds the sad historical record of having staged 190 coups d'etat in its 168 years of independent existence.
Bolivia is one of only two landlocked nations in Latin America. It rarely makes the news except In drug-related stories. It Is the world's second largest producer of coca leaves after Colombia.
1 However, Bolivia Is much' more than that, with the largest indigenous population in the area. It was one of the first countries in the region to put an end to decades of mlli-tary rule and begin to pave the way back to democratic rule, albeit, a restricted and peculiar notion of democracy.
In this election 14 presidential candidates and more than 25 parties are competing for the 130 parliamentary seats and 27 Senate seats.
The large and colourful ballot paper — full of logos, symbols and photographs of the candidates — may give the impression of plurality and democratic competition, but the plain fact is that only three of the 14 candidates have any real chance of winning.
Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, leader of the National Revolutionary Movement (MNR), one of the oldest parties, stands the best chance of being sworn in as the next president But anything can happen In Bolivian politics.
Sanchez, popularly known as Qoni, was planning minister under the government of Victor Paz Estenssoro (1985-1989) and played a key role in bringing down the devastating inflation rate of 23,000 per cent of the early 1980s, to a manageable 16 per cent by the end of the MNR administration. He did it via the implementation of an orthodox and austere stabilisation pro-
Bolivia is electing a new president today. With military rule left to the history books, it has begun to find its way back to democracy — not so easy for a country that has had 190 coups in the last 168 years. Election front-runner, Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, has already helped bring Bolivia‘s staggering inflation rate under control and laid the groundwork for a neoliberal regime. But Sanchez has several opponents and the campaign has been marked by questions about the election process.
gramme approved by the International Monetary Fund.
The MNR government is said to have laid the groundwork for a new neo-liberal Bolivia in 1985. Sanchez's so-called "Han for All" is merely a continuation of these policies, with its emphasis on privatisation, reduction in public expenditure and low salaries. This time, however, he promises to eliminate unemployment.
But the credibility of politicians has been greatly eroded-by obscure and corrupt practices. Monsignor Edmundo Abastoflor, President of Bolivia's Episcopal Conference, has warned voters that "nothing guarantees that the candidates' promises will be fulfilled. We know by now that
they are all lies."
This statement by a high moral authority does not seem to disturb the presidential aspirations of retired army general Hugo Banzer, head and cofounder of the Nationalist Democratic Action (ADN) and member of the ruling Patriotic Accord coalition.
Back in 1971, Banzer overthrew the progressive government of Juan Jose Torresand and installed a rightwing dictatorship. He became the country's de facto president. The born-again democrat has been a three -time candidate to the presidency and is now being supported by the Christian Democratic party, the Left Revolutionary Front (FRI) and current President Jaime Paz
Zamora's Revolutionary Leftist Movement (MIR).
The ageing former dictator has as a running mate for the vice-presidency, ex-Communist leader Oscar Zamora. It shows, once again, the pragmatic nature of Bolivian politics.
The most recent polls show that the electorate Is divided, a reflection perhaps of the fact that there are no substantial differences among the main candidates, since all adhere to the existing neo-Uberal social and economic model.
Sanchez commands around 30 per cent of the popular support; Banzer and the other main candidate, Max Fernandez, about 20 per cent each.
Fernandez Is a charismatic populist politician. A founding member of the Solidarian Civic Union (UCS) only four years ago, he is also the main shareholder of the Bolivian National Beer Company. His electoral platform is built on frantic criticism of the political class and the corruption that — according to him — permeates the whole public administration system.
However, he himself has been accused of laundering money from drug trafficking. Even so, Fernandez seems to have taken support from another main contender, Carlos Palenque.
Palenque Is a radio and TV personality who in the last election won-11 per cent of the vote, becoming the most voted candidate in La Paz. Polls give him around 10 per cent this time.
Bolivia's constitution says that if no single candidate obtains absolute majority — 50 per cent plus one of the vote — the Congress must elect the president out of the three first relative majorities. In fact, in 1985, Banzer Initially won more votes than Paz Este-nssoro, who was eventually chosen to be president by parliament
History repeated itself In the last election when Congress elected Paz Zamora, who came only third In the presidential race, as head of state. This year's likely winner, Sanchez, came first then with 23 per cent of the vote.
This has prompted Antonio Canales, political commentator of Los Tlempos newspaper, to say that "the people vote but does not elect.” The constitutional loophole allows for intense and — some argue — opportunistic and unethical political maneuvering.
Popular sovereignty is replaced by political engineering, for politicians are more concerned with potential allies in parliament than With the electorate's needs. Congress becomes a negotiating ground for power-sharing, allocation of key ministries, political responsibilities and well paid jobs in the state apparatus.
Today's adversaries may be- come tomorrow’s allies so candidates are careful not to offend their opponents. Notwithstanding this, Sanchez's MNR has accused the government of embarking on an Inorganic Issue of 41 million dollars to cover up the fiscal deficit.
They also accuse the government of mounting an election fraud by manipulating a Spanish-financed programme aimed at Issuing ID cards to nearly three million undocumented citizens. The government 1a said to have Issued the ID cards to peasants in exchange for their votes. The ruling coalition denies the accu-sations.
The neo-liberal model may have partially succeeded in bringing down inflation and opening up the economy to the unrestricted operation of foreign capital, but it has failed to improve the Ilves of poor Bolivians who are denied access to decent housing, education, employment and health care.
Average life expectancy stands at 53.1 years against 71 and 74 years in Argentina and Cuba respectively. Only two months ago, the powerful Bolivian Workers Confederation (COB) launched a nationwide campaign for better wages and improved working conditions.
At one point, nearly 300 trade union leaders were on hunger strikes to protest against government policies. Teachers, miners, building workers and peasants took to the streets to support the COB campaign. They were repressed by the police with tear gas and baton charges.
Indeed, little has changed for ths Bolivian people.
— GEMINI NEWS
LUIS TRICOT is a Chilean Journalist writing and broadcasting on Latin American af-Jairs.