BEIJING, Apr 3: China’s grain production is likely to drop in coming years as farmers abandon the fields infrustration over high taxes and worthless government promissory notes (IOU), the official China Daily reported, according to Reuter.

'Shrinking arable land and deflated enthusiasm among farmers are being pegged as the causes for what appears to be a sure slide in grain production." the newspaper said.

The pessimistic forecast-follows predictions by foreign grain analysts that China’s demand for grain, especially feed grain, is going to shoot up and the country is likely to become a net grain Importer within the decade.

China's leaders want to see 442.5 million

tonnes of grain produced in 1993. In 1992 the country fell around 2.5 million short of that target, which is roughly unchanged.

In a report to parliament this month, said the world's most populous country should aim to produce 475 million tonnes of grain by 1997

Hut the China Daily said that economists and officials now agreed that overall grain output was likely to drop In the ncarterm, "posing somewhat of a contrast" to the Premier's optimistic target. '

"Although we haye plenty of grain right now. we re expected to sec grain production tapering off soon," Chen Junsheng, a councillor In China s cabinet, told the newspaper.

This have gone so far that a quick fix to the

unsettling scenario is unlikely," the China Dally added.

A major reason behind the forecast output drop Is farmers' anger over government policies that have left them with higher tax bills and no cash to pay them.

Under China's old system of state economic planning, the government bought most agricultural produce at fixed prices, guaranteeing farmers a stable if meagre income.

For several years Beijing has bought more of its grain with government lOUs, which are so dillieull to cash some farmers says they arc not worth the paper they are printed on.

Local governments have added to the farmers' burden by imposing a raft of extra taxes and fees — sucking up as much as 10 per cent

of each farmer’s Income, the newspaper said.

Beijing which knows China's 800 million peasants are the backbone of its political and economic stability, has called for a stop to lOUs and extra fees, but analysts say tt may be too late to prevent migration away from agricultural work.

Grain output Is also expected to drop because China's current economic boom has seen housing, factories and infrastructural projects , eat away at farmland.

The China Daily said as much as 1.6 million hectares (3.9 million acres) of farmland had been lost as local authorities scrambled to build economic development zones after senior leader Deng Xiaoping called for faster growth last year.