INTERNATIONAL Geo sphere Biosphere Programme on global change refers to the consequences of any bloaphcrtc. gcospheric, oceanic or socio economic process that alter the global environment directly or through the accumulation of local or regional impacts. Changes Hke deforc station or toss of farest can be measured tn months or days while natural variation in the climate system span decades or centuries.

In view of the growing concern for large scale changes in the earth system caused by human and anthropogenic activities, the International Council of Scientific Unions ha* initiated an International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) which is one of the most ambitious global research programmes up-to-date and is to be conducted by the scientists of the member countries.

The goal of IGBP Is to describe and understand the interactive physical, chemical and biological process that regulate the total earth system and unique environment that it provides for life, the changes that are occurring In the system and the manner tn which they arc influenced by human action.

The total population of the planet is about five billion and the population growth rate had reached nearly one billion per year. The global consumption of energy amounted to 13.1 Terra Watts (one Terra watt»energy produced by one billion tons of coal). People in developed countries consume 7.5 times as much energy as each of the 4.1 billion people who live tn developing countries. If current consumption continues, the human population will have consumed the total earth endowments (total fossil fuel and half of petroleum) in the next 20 years

In order to understand and respond to global change. It requires a knowledgeable public, since difficult political, economic and life-style decisions must be made and accepted particularly by the developed nations The alm of IGBP research projects, therefore, is to determine how and why the global environment is changing and'tfic risks that are involved and options that are available to respond to these risks. Programme of global change research must draw on natural, medical and biological as well as social sciences.

Why national IGBP is necessary

Without a central integrating and coordinating body, government departments, university researchers and other agencies will simply go their separate ways with environmental global change research. There will be little scope for cooperation but considerable

duplication. The result will be that there will be enormous loopholes tn the end product

Although Bangladesh in the context <»f global rx.gn.phy i. a small country, it I* located In a most sensitive area from eco logical point of view and anv glotad change will have serious Impacts on tt* agro-ccology, flood plains, coastal zones and what Is most important, on Its human habitat. Its location also makes tt vulncmbk- to regional changes, such as deforestation th the alluvial basin of Its three major rivers, Brahmaputra. Ganges, and Mcghna. soil erosion, sedimentation rate, water quality etc. Also Himalayan snow-melt change deserves al-tentlon. Bangladesh cannot, however, shut Itself out from the natural process that is taking place on regional or global scale and must develop and initiate policies and action regionally.

The Bangladesh IGBP programme (studies on global change programme) was initi alcd in 1987 under the Bangladesh Academy of Sciences and with the encour age me nt and help of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and IGBP Secretariat at Stockholm. Sweden. A national committee of IGBP was set up which was reconstituted In 1990 with representatives from universities, government agencies, semi-government organizations which were working in different aspects related to environment. The committee was reconstituted again in November, 1992 taking into consideration only those research organizations and scientists that are directly involved in environmental research. It took for the national committee 3/4 years to formulate a broad long-term plan on research that is relevant to IGBP core projects which were not finalised by IGBP until 1990. There was no environmental research framework in the country which could Incorporate the proposed interdisciplinary research projects that were supposed to be initiated by the national committee. Apart from a few isolated research undertaken at the Initiative of a few scientists, there was no goal-oriented environmental research in the country. The overall aim of the national IGBP committee Is to ensure that IGBP research is cohesive, comprehensive and responsive to national needs and International initiatives.

The specific objectives of the national committee of IGBP is to:

—- develop a national framework for global change research:

— assist in the formulation of effective policies focused on amelioration of environmental hazards and anticipatory action:

— bring together appropriate research disciplines and ■ organization within the policy sector;

— promote the integration of natural, biological, medical and human aspects to research on global change;

— foster the development of specific research projects;

— stimulate and encourage inter-disciplinary research coordination;

— provide a national information base for IGBP activities and projects :

— act as the focal point for communication and interaction with international IGBP programme and Its network.

The national committee does not have any budget of Its own to fund research activities

except in sponsoring research projects for funding by IGBP or other agencies.

Bangladesh national committee had, after considerable discussion and review of IGBP core projects, decided to take up the following projects if funds are ensured.

Biospheric Aspects of the Hydrological

Cycle (BAHC)

Plants and soil affect the fate of rainfall, return of waler to the atmosphere and heat budget al the earth's land surface. The BACH project is supposed to quantify the role of terrestrial ecosystem In land, air water fluxes and the hydro-logical effects of environmental change.

The Bangladesh research project will address these issues through remote sensing studies, vegetation affecting water apd energy exchange through evaporation, absorption of solar radiation and carrying moisture from below the ground and thus influence soil structure, and organic matter by the decomposits of plant, organic matter and through soil, fauna and flora. Change In natural vegetation cover in the alluvial basin of the three major rivers flowing through Bangladesh, have significant influence on the water cycle and other component of the climate system. Studies in the Amazon basin indicate that replacement of forest cover by shrub ^nd grass land has Increased the surface temperature from 1 to 40C, and has brought about a change in waler run-off with significant effect on the frequency of flooding and water quality. Such a study on regional scale is absolutely necessary by India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and China in order to understand the root causes of flooding and the precess Involved. The

study of snow melted in the Himalayan region and deforestation and slltatlon rate and water quality flux arc impoi tant areas of studies and must be undertaken jointly by the concerned regional countries

SAARC can be an excellent forum for Initiating such Joint studies on the three mighty river systems (the Brahm Xutra. the Ganges and the ghna) whs'li might lead lo an understanding of dcvel opmenl efforts in controlling flood tn the plain with tremendous benefit lo millions of people 1n plain of the region

It Is recommended that re glonal-scalc studies should be simultaneously initiated tn

order to prepare a base for flood control projects on a sounder scientific basis. Other research projects/studle^ relevant lo BAHC may be consid ered for implementation provided fund is available.

(1) Transportation of nutrt ents and organic matters from land and rivers lo ocean.

(it) Quality degradation of fresh water

Global change and Terrestrial Ecosystem

Studies on the impact of the global change on agriculture and forestry arc intended to investigate the effect of changes In atmosphere composition on yield of selected crops. The research studies will, include monocropptng, rotational and intercropping and will also be focused on some economic crops.

Studies on species’ richness on nutrient cycles and other system process of extreme environmental changes (cyclone, floods etc) for the viability of plant species are also neces-

Othcr areas/topic* that need to be addressed are:

(1) Emission of green-house gases CH3. Co, Co2. N»o etc.

These studies will be done In collaboration with IGAC researchers.

(2) impact of human population growth, including development, on environment.

Methane (CH3)

One of the priority topics taken up by the national committee is the measurement of the emission of methane from wet paddy lands. Methane is produced as a result of activity by anocrobio bacteria which unlike their aerobic cousins stop a little short leaving methanes as a major product. Methane is also an important product of the digestion or food by grazing so also in the guts of termites. Methane

although In smaller proportion in Co2, plays a greater role tn blocking heal from the earth than Co2. Il slays in the atmosphere for more than 8 to 10 year* before it is broken down.

Fossil fuels are other sources of methane. Incomplete eombastion of fossil fuel or biomass adds inethars to the atmosphere.

Quantifying emission from different sources Is difficult. Emission of methane from dll’ fercnt classes of wet rice fields Including Irrigated field* and u»t- of fertilizer, different cultivated practice* make measurements subject lo great variation. Anyway some estimated source* and sinks of methane arc as under:

It is necessary for Bangladesh to make systematic efforts to measure methane. N20 Nitrons Oxide is also « greenhouse gas and its source I* rice land but its production depends on fertilizer ase, cultural practices and soil type (including breeding of new land).

Global warming have significant impact on crops and Insects and thus require attention of our agricultural scientists. Impact studies have indicated that crops will be affected differently In different region* of the world. For instance in the crop region In mid latitude of North America and Europe with no change tn precipitation, warming will reduce average yields by as much as 15 per cent with an increase of temperature by 2o C. Ten per cent decrease in north America would be cquiv ak-nt to 10 per cent decrease In global trade of cereals.

In northern India 0.5c higher temperature may mean 10 per cent tower yield from the wheat harvest. In central India the situation may be worse unless,rainfall increases. On the other hand crops might benefit from fertiliser affect of Co2 on summer crops. It is not possible to speculate what would happen in Bangladesh with rise in temperature as no Impact studies have been made. Rise in temperature with no increase In rainfall may benefit some areas, while in other region ( e.g. tract) the reverse may happen. Pests may be benefited by warmer weather. Our future rice research strategies may take note of the fact that both temperature and rainfall pattern may be changing and they must pay attention to breeding for quick maturing rice for certain areas; for other areas drought resistant rice may be useful. Drought-resistant crops Introduced, or indigenous or evolved may be on demand and may be identified. Similarly, irrigation efficiency will assume importance in areas with declining water sources.

(The author is Chairman. National Committee. IGBP) This is the first part of a two-part feature. For a follow-up see next week's environment page-