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Lebanese Peace Hinges on Population Balance

Mounir B Abboud writes from Beirut
*** Christiana are concerned the resettlement of Palestinians in Lebanon will upset the religious balance, a mqjor factor to peace.
LEBANON'S refusal to accept Palestinians deported by Israel strikes deep at the country's hard-won peace.
This peace rests on a delicate balance between the Muslim and Christian populations. It remains fragile, constantly shifting like sand.
Concern has long been aired over Palestinian refugees. The fear is that the influx of Palestinian refugees will upset the delicate population balance between Muslims and Christians. This fear Is partly based on the fact that Lebanon's population is shrinking. It was shrinking during the 16-year civil war and is still shrinking due jo the war's after-effects.
Even before thousands who migrated during the 16-year civil war can return to their homes, many Lebanese arc still crowding foreign embassies for visas so they can leave the country which, because of the war's devastation, has very little to offer at the moment.
Police remains tense while the economy worsens and unemployment soars.
The situation threatens to further deplete the country's population, already reduced to almost half of what it was about a decade ago — 4 million. Lebanon's population today is 2,730,000.
The drop in the country's population was not due to low
birth rates but to the exodus of people fleeing from the destruction and economic dislocation.
People either left Lebanon altogether or moved to other places in the country, abandoning farms and occupations to avoid the devastation.
An exhaustive survey made by the Institute of Studies in the Applied Social Sciences, which was set up jointly by the University of Saint Joseph in Beirut and the Universitc I.aval de Montreal with' the support of Canada's International Development Research Centre (IDRC) and the Ford Foundation, showed the extent of population displacement in Lebanon as a result of the war.
The beginning of the protracted war between 1975 and 1976 caused the most significant displacement of people, affecting 39 per cent of Lebanon's population. In 1983 84, the second most significant population displacement took place with 17 per cent of the people affected as combatants battled In the mountains and various factions fought in West Beirut.
At least 125,000 households or about 681,000 people were affected when people fled because of perceived or real danger. They represent about 22 per cent of Lebanon's total population. Many of those who fled were heads of the family and the families they left behind often Joined other households.
West Beirut had the densest concentration of displaced people who, in 1987, made up more than one-third of Its total population. Other parts of the capital also have significant numbers of displaced people In residence, for example, 30 per cent of residents in the southern suburbs. One person In four in the eastern and northern parts of the capital is a displaced Lebanese. '
While Beirut became a favourite destination of displaced people, the capital was steadily losing its own resi-dents. The survey found that around 56 per cent of displaced people originated from Beirut and the metropolitan areas surrounding it.
The survey found that in no part of the country is there less than 10 per cent concentration of displaced people. Displaced people account for at least 12 per cent of population in various parts of the country.
No estimates of Lebanese who left the country altogether have been made so far hut the
exodus to other countries appears to be unabated despite the end of the war and pronouncements by countries of destination that they are not inclined to accept Ixibanese immigrants now that the conflict is over.
The Scandinavian countries, Canada and Australia are among those which have already declared the Lebanese will no longer be qualified for political refugee status with the end of the conflict. The United States has granted visas to only 5 per cent of applicants since the war officially ended.
But these difficulties might not completely- deter the Lebanese from^lrying to get ouT.*Th fact, many Lebanese who returned home following the end of the conflict' have left again because they cannot find employment or cannot cope with the hardship.
The powerful ConfedcratiorT of Trade Union says unemployment has reached 30 per cent of the total work force. Union leaders warned of more bread riots, similar to those which occurred last May, if the government did not act to check the depreciation of the currency and the rising Inflation rate. The American dollar Is now worth between 2,400 and 2,700 Lebanese pounds, one thousand more than what It cost prior to the May riots.
The political situation also remains volatile as disagreements between Muslims and Christians continue to surface. The delicate balance in Ix-banons population between the two main religious groups, which was seriously threat cned by the civil war, could be In danger once again as Christians warn of another mass exodus over some electoral disputes.
In late 1992, the Lebanese government expressed alarm over a decision of the United Nations Relief and Works agency for Palestine Refugees (JJNRWA) to Issue new Identity and ration cards to refugees.
The Lebanese feared this signalled a move to resettle the thousands of refugees In their country. UNRWA, however, gave the assurance that the measure was only intended to ensure better identification and more accurate census of Palestinians in Ixbanon. The agency gave the assurance that ft had no intention "now or In the future to resettle Palestinian refugees in Lebanon.''
Christians, in particular, arc concerned that the resettlement of. Palestinians in Lebanon-will upset the religious balance, a major factor to peace. Lebanon's largest Christian group said under no
circumstances should the country agree to having thousands of Palestinians resettled there.
UNRWA estimates that there are 300,000 Palestinian refugees in Ixbanon most of them living in 13 refugee camps. The lebanesc government's own estimate is between 400.000 and 450,000 refugees.
The Christians, who were In the majority when Lebanon became independent in 1943, have seen their numbers shrink and the Muslims emerge as the dominant group during the years of con-flict.Thcy hold the Palestinians responsible for the outbreak of the civil war In 1975 which, according to latest estimates, claimed the lives of 144,240 ' people, wounded 17,415, and disabled 13,455. Newspaper reports say 17,415 people, are still missing up to now and 13,968 were kidnapped during the civil war.
Palestinians, before the civil war. established a virtual state within Lebanon, using occupied territories In the countty to launch attacks against Israel.
Lebanon, made wary by this previous experience, has refused to enter into any agreement with the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) to guarantee civil rights to the Palestine within the countty. The government said ft would only recognise refugees registered with UNRWA while the rest will have to leave.
— Depthnews Asia