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Mosque razing may hinder India’s economic reforms
BOMBAY. Dec 8: A political Crists in India triggered by the razing of a mosque by militant Hindus could setback the country;s bold economic reform programme and delay economic recovery, bankers and financial analysts said, reports Rep ter.
Fears of spiralling unrest forced the closure of the country's leading slock markets on Monday. Banks and offices closed early and many trains in Bombay were cancelled as police cordoned off parts of the city to isolate gangs of youths who set a police van and several buses on fire.
It's a very bad situation. Everything will be on hold.
said foreign exchange consultant Jamal Mccklal.
Indian news agencies reported at least 80 people killed across the country and scores more injured In Hindu-Muslim violence triggered by the destruction of the mosque in the northern state of Uttar Jhadesh on Sunday.
Financial analyst Ajit Dayal said renewed political uncertainty could delay further economic reforms, putting the country's multi-billion dollar aid package from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) In jeopardy.
Some economists said Islamic oil — producing states could threaten to out off oil to
India following the destruction of Ihe mosque
Mecklai. said the unrest would staunch the flow of vital ‘ remittances to India and undermine the country's efforts to attract foreign investment. Government plans to make the rupee fully convertible would be delayed.
He said he anticipated the rupee, which was devalued by 1.18 per cent against the US dollar on Friday, could fall further. Il was trading on the free market at 30.75 to the dollar, and could slide by one to two rupee.
The crisis prompted spccu latlon among bankers and bustneaamen about a possibk-
mid-term clArtton. or the re plaecment of Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao. accused by critics of falling to act decisively on the Ayodhya issue
"It's damaged India's credi bility substantially, said Bhaskar Ghose, Indian Representative of the Bank of New York.
While there may be a change of leadership. I think the Congress government will stay, he said.
The incident is bound to affect the economic programme adversely, said Nani Palhivala, a Director of Talas. India’s leading business house.
People abroad would wonder If there is any dependable
tie said Also if there’s a change sf government there’ll be apprehension whether the new ministers would continue with the reform programme.
Ramu Deora, Chairman of the Basic Chemicals. Pharmaceuticals and Cosmetics Export Council, called for decisive action by the government to control the situation.
"It's unexpected, but I think It can be resolved within a couple of days.” said Deora.
"We’ll have to see how the Prime Minister can consolidate himself, said Aspl Contractor, head of Research with Merchant Bankers DSP
Boris ralher^ky^r^ht^r*
Rao ushered in a programme of dramatic econorrtic reforms, ending 40 years of Socialism in India and sweeping aside trade and industrial restrictions. He opened India’s stock markets to foreign tn vestment and made the rupee practically convertible.
While businessmen see little real political alternative to the reforms, they would be worried by any change of leadership that could result in further deltas
An unstable government at the Centre will mean no decision-making. Contractor said
The most difficult decision
before the government la when to introduce a policy that would allow the closing down of loss making stale industries, and the sacking of workers by
Indu.n economy . juM edging its way towards recovery The razing of the mosque may act as a n-w dampener just as the economy was recovering from the lingering Impact of a 1.2 billion dollar ft nanciai scandal earlier tn the year
A fragile social situation may cause industrial production and rural consumption to stall, said Duyul. analyst with Jardine Fleming Affiliate Quantum Financial Services.