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’Japanese planners facing delicate period to frame next yr budget’
TOKYO, Dec 8: Toyoo Gyohten, a former top official at Japan's Finance Ministry who now heads Bank of Tokyo the Japanese economy would start recovering, by the middle of ndxt year at the latest; ‘ftjlbrts AFP.
But he also warned that economic planners were now facing a "very delicate period" in framing the government's budget for the new fiscal year starting in April, which he described as "very crucial" to the scale ofIhe recovery.
The 1993 budget bill will be viewed as Japan's response to the global desire to rc-stimulate the economy," he told a luncheon. "Between now and the end of the year could be a very crucial period for those policy planners."
Gyohten. who oversaw the impact of the yen's surge against the dollar as Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs between 1986 and 1989, said last week's gross national product (GNP) data was "not very encouraging.”
The GNP figures showed that Japan had technically entered a recession, with economic activity in the September quarter shrinking 0.4 per cent from the previous three months following zero growth in the June quarter.
The contraction was the first since 1986 and marked the most protracted economic decline in Japan since after the first oil-price shock of 1973.
But noting that the latest GNP figures included "elements which would indicate the economy has. bottomed," Ihe Bank of Tokyo Chairman 'forecast that "recovery will be in progress at the latest by the middle of next year."
Gyohten also said that the "main problem" currently facing the economy was the par-' llamentary delay In approving the government's supplementary budget, part of a 10.7 trillion yen (87 billion dollar) package adopted in August.
Although approval is expected in the next few days, Gyohten noted that "the entire process will take about two
years" to appropriate and disburse funds. The package "will yield significant results" although any need for more funds "will depend on the dc-velopment bf the situation tn the coming inonths."
Gyohten, one of the most widely respected former Finance Ministry officials outside of Japan, acknowledged that Japanese borrowers were already facing a credit crunch of sorts but noted that there was also "very weak"' demand for funds. "'In that sense, it's not a credit crunch per se," he said.
But "there is a certain element of credit crunch now
particularly with small and medium-sized firms. These firms are not as well collateralised as their big brothers." he said. Their credit standing is naturally-not as high.
Japan to explain refusal to open rice market
Reuter adds : Agriculture Minister Masami Tanabu is to visit the United States and Europe to explain Japan's refusal to open its rice market, government officials said here.
"I am going to strongly
• restate our opposition to the tariffication plan," Tanabu was quoted as saying by a ministry official.