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Developed economies on way to recovery, says OECD
PARIS, Dec 2: Economic recovery has begun in the United States and will become apparent next year in the rest of the developed world, OECD Secretary General Jean-Claude Paye said on Tuesday, reports Reuter.
Addressing a French Association of Financial Journalists, Paye said he expected consumer and business confidence to provide the catalyst for growth In coming months.
The American recovery Is In the process of showing itself. it's the swallow before the summer.‘ he said. All the same, he did not expect any "roaring recovery" in the 24-nation Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development area.
Figures published last week revised US third quarter gross
domestic product growth up to 3.9 per cent from 2.7 per cent
Paye said quarterly data should be taken with some scepticism, especially when trying to make longer-term forecasts, but he added: "there's no doubt that the situation Is In the process of getting better."
Paye said Germany was not falling Into recession and he expected lower Interest rates there to aid recovery soon.
"Probably, Inflationary pressures there ought to subside tn the next few months and open up the prospect of lower interest rates in the next few months," he said.
One reason for his optimism was that German officials thought employers and unions would negotiate salary increases compatible with price stability in future years.
"If that is the case, one big factor that has contributed to inflation and Inflationary expectations will be removed "
High German interest rates are often blamed for keeping rates up elsewhere and therefore holding back European growth.
But Paye said central banks did not keep Interest rates high for the fun of It. "Central bankers are not sadists... they seize every opportunity to out rates."
The OECD acts as a thinktank and forum for Its mem bers.
Paye said the economic situation throughout the OECD area remained unsure, but he added: "the conditions for recovery are in place, it Is going to come."
He conceded that people had heard that before from the
OECD and other eminent forecasters. and he said he had Instructed his economists to address the question of why they had been so "obstinately mistaken" over the past 18 months.
The economic conse, Iuences of financial market eregulation was something they had not fully accounted for, he said, and confidence — "difficult to foresee, difficult to create, easy to destroy" — was not easily factored Into computer models.
The OECD's next formal crack at predicting the recovery will be In its half-yearly economic outlook, due out on December 16.
Reuter adds: A much-quoted OECD report saying a GATT trade accord would add almost 200 billion dollar to world output was highly theo-
retical and its use could be misleading, a top OECD official said on Tuesday.
Jean-Claude Paye. Secretary General of the 24-natton Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said the media had widely cited the sum but did not say such gains would take 10 years to achieve and most nations, particularly In the developing world, could be hurt by a GATT deal.
The figure was taken from a report by the Paris-based Economic Forum's Development Centre which said output of goods and services could be boosted by 195 billion dollar if Import barriers were lifted as part of a General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade deal to liberalise global commerce into the next century.