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OPEC member states divided over production target
GENEVA. Sept 18. Shortly after OPEC clinched a new oil production deal. Iran rejected the accord, complaining it would not drive crude prices high enough in the winter, reports AP.
This really doesn't help prices." said Iran's Oil Minister. Gholamreza Aqazadch, a perennial price hawk.
Late Thursday, the second smallest member of the cartel. Ecuador, became the first na tion to pull out of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Ecuador had complained about limits on its production and membership fees. Without the Latin American country, the cartel has 12 members.
Ecuador, the second-smallest member of OPEC, accounts for about 1-2 per cent of the cartel's production, with about
320,000 barrels per day.
The ministers of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries who agreed on the accord worked out Thursday night that it would push prices up a dollar or two a barrel by year's end.
To do so. the producers pledged to hold oil production at 24.2 million barrels a day in the October-December quarter. Kuwait can pump extra as Its oil industry continues to rebuild from the Gulf war.
That supply guideline is roughly OPEC's current level of output, but sharply under some forecasts of oil demand in win ter. assutaing cold, not mild, weather.
The nations argue that if they keep pumping steady while demand for oil rises, then prices will climb.
The agreement will give a
big impetus to the market," Insisted Hisham Nazcr. oil chief of super-producer Saudi Arabia. ”1 hope the price will go up."
Analysts- agreed prices arc likely to rise, but maybe not as much as OPEC is hoping.
"If they really stick to it. prices should strengthen." said John Lichtblau, chairman of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation in New York. The market will require more than 24.2 million barrels a day-
Estimates of demand in the final three months of the year go as high as 25.7 million bar rels a day. Much will depend on the weather. A cold winter would push up demand; a warm one would dampen It.
Prices, have been firming recently. Western customers have been replenishing Inven.-
tories ahead of winter in the United States and Europe.
An OPEC marker was 19.64 dollar a barrel earlier this year. According to cartel calculations, inflation and the tumbling dollar have snipped about 3 dollar a barrel off the recent value of oil. Oil is priced in dol-
OPEC has a poor track record In keeping Its production promises. When prices climb, nations often increase supply to bring in more revenues for their developing economies. Once output starts surging, prices tend to slip.
But the cartel is producing close to Its limit since Iraq, one of its biggest suppliers is barred from selling oil. United Nations sanctions were imposed on the Baghdad government after its soldiers overran Kuwait In August 1990.
Aqazadch. Iran's oil minister. argued that the nations should take advantage of the situation to cut their production and force up prices.
We thought it was a good opportunity for OPEC to adjust production and help priced (and) revenues for our countries," he told a dews conference.
Aqazadeh, who claims his nation has sharply boosted Its oil capacity, said he did not Intend to flood the market to protest the accord. But he did say he would raise production with higher demand.
The group's final statement Includes an appeal for the na Hons to avoid "any actions that could disrupt the stability of the market."
The final accord makes no mention of an oil output celling. instead, it said the group
decided "the market share" for the fourth quarter would be 24.2 million barrels a day.
Setting a firm celling apparently would have forced the ministers to dlwy up the production among the nations. Such a discussion would no doubt spark a fight between rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran over which country should get what.
The ministers hope to sidestep such a battle at least until sanctions are lifted on Iraq and it can resume oil sales.
A Reuter report says: A dis putc between traditional OPEC antagonists Saudi Arabia and Iran threatened on Thursday to block a deal that the group wants to boost world oil prices to Its coveted target of $21 per barre).