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Cambodia — a land where people must buy rice in morning
PHNOM PENH. Sept 17: Rampant Inflation that could top 300 per cent this year is threat cning to turn Cambodia into a country where people must buy their rice in the morning to beat price increases by afternoon, writes AFP
And the UN Transitional Authority in Cambodia (UNTAC), despite a mandate for direct control over the four factions that admin later this country, can do little to stop it, according to economists and financial analysis.
They have a massive problem a long time in the making and they don't have the means to adjust it,” said one economist. They're stuck."
Just like the former Soviet Union which used to prop up this economy. Cambodia is at tempting to shift from a communist to a cap! talist system. But it has no foreign exchange or gold reserves. Is running a budget deficit of 40 million dollar and owes more than 70 million dollar to foreign Institutions
The Phnom Penh administration Is rapidly flying in money printed in Moscow to pay civil servants, with bfll« are so new the Ink comes
off on their hands.
In July and August It printed 27 billion riel (13 million US dollar), according to International Monetary Fund figures.
As a result, the riel Is plunging against the US dollar. From 350 to the dollar In December, it hit a tow of 2,800 to the dollar last week and bounced back to 2.300 on Wednesday.
Inflation was 30 per cent in July alone — up from 20 per cent in June — according to the IMF.
There's no chance of the inflation rate coming down until well after the election" in May 1993, said an economist with a western diplomatic mission.
Cambodia threatens to become a "banana republic-like economy where people say they better buy this morning because the price will go up this afternoon." he said
If the government stops printing money,
The only solution, economists say, Is a massive capital infusion. In any other country, the IMF or World Bank would ball out the economy while a restructuring could take place.
But Cambodia's unique political situation — where the Phnom Penh administration with the most land and power is not acceptable to the United Nations because It was installed by Vietnam — makes any World Bank or IMF loan unlikely until after the UN-run election.
Roger Lawrence, the American In charge of finance at UNTAC, has been lobbying hard for such fast cash but has little hope of it being granted soon.
Instead, he planes a long-term strategy of helping the government Impose taxes — which are presently nil — clamping down on smugglers and corrupt officials and urging patience.
There are difficulties and we're simply going to overcome them." he said In an interview It can't be reversed In a couple of weeks." while Cambodtans In ths c-pltal and provtn
cial cities are feeling the pinch. Uiwrcncc argues that there was not much impact on the rice farmer in Kompong Cham."
About 80 to 85 per cent of Cambodians are living at a subsistence level off their farms.
But in the cities, the price of medium grade rice — every Cambodian s staple — has gone from 330 riel per kilogram two weeks ago to 400 riel (17 US cent) Wednesday. Both arc the equivalent of 17 US cent, ns the exchange rate was 2,000 riel to the US dollar at the beginning of September.
It now costs 90,000 riel (40 dollar) a month to feed an urban family of four, according to one eulbassy study.
Traffic policeman Douni Sevan. 36. earns just 13.000 riel (5.6 dollar) per month.
"I feel so upset with the dally Inflation." he said The only thing I can do Is depend on my wife She sells (rice) cakes at central market, and sometimes I borrow money from my friends."