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Far East to play greater role in world oil market
SINGAPORE. Sept 15: The Far East, already the world s second largest oil user, will play growing role in the inter national oil Industry this decade as the region s surging economies outpace the West, energy analyst Danie. Yergln said, reports Reuter.
"As we move into the next century this will be the centre of economic growth.’ the President of Cambridge Energy Research told the Asta-Pacific oil conference.
’From 1986 to 1997 we see almost no oil demand growth tn the US and almost no growth in western Europe. In the same period we see a doubling of demand tn Asia,' Yergln said.
OECD nations tn Asta will see growth gains of only about two per cent per year in the period, reaching around six million BPD by 1997. But nonOECD Aslan countries will report growth of over six per cent per year to around 12 million BPD.
Some 50 to 65 per cent of
new world oil demand this decade will come from the Asia Pacific region, tightening world oil supplies and poten Hally driving prices higher, analysts said
Inc trend, spurred by (ailing Aslan output, will raise Asian reliance on Middle East oil from 73 per cent of imports tn 1990 to 90 per cent by 2000. the highest import dependence in the world according to Singapore's Institute of South East Asian Studies.
"Asian demand growth of four per cent a year in the 1990s is not unreasonable but production will grow only three per cent leaving a clear deficit." Shankar Sharma, the institute's coordinator of energy projects, said earlier this summer.
Indeed, growth In sonic countries and South China has been In the double digits
Much of the gain will be In transportation fuels, like jet and diesel fuel, as populations soars and Industries boom.
"We're looking at five million BPD demand growth In Asia this century — 75 per cent of it Is In transportation ." Yergln said
Except for the temporary impact of the current economic slowdown In Japan and South Korea, there Is little spare refining capacity left in the Far East and more than 3.5 million BPD of new capacity will be required by 2000. Yergln said.
Despite fairly ambitious plans for refinery construction and expansion In the region, few of the announced new refineries are moving forward. Hawaiis East-West Center said recently.
The group estimates considerable Imports could be required to meet demand, heightening the region s role In world markets
"Forecasts of 1995 and 2000 product balances add up to a diesel deficit of nearly 870.000 BPD by the year 2000 — a figure so daunting that it leads one to ask how the
shortfall can be managed.'' the East-West Center said last month.
The Far East will need heavy injections of both capital and technology to meet its relentless demands.
Cambridge Energy estimates regional refiners and government may be faced with a price tag of 70 billion dollar for new downstream development by 2000.
The sheer size of the bill Is prompting exploration of new strategies for the 199Os. Including deregulation, already underway 1n various Aslan nations. privatisation of government monopolies and Joint ventures with foreign firms.
But Yergln warned that a new wave of environmentalism also has the world oil industry on the defensive and Asia will not be Immune.
Energy legislation in the US. notably the clean air act. has demoralised the US oil Industry with high costs and uncertainties. prompting companies to spending, he said.