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NAFTA — powerful trading bloc may be as arduous as tortuous

by John Ross
Ratification of the Just signed agreement forming a North American Free Trade Association (NAFTA), compris Ing the United States. Canada and Mexico, may be just as ar duous as the tortuous. 13-month negotiating process ’ The text, covering 20.000 separate trade Items, now goes to the legislatures of the three countries for final approval. Only in Mexico will It sail smoothly through. ■
The accord needs to be ap proved by the Mexican Senate, where the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PR1). which has ruled for 64 years, now controls 61 of the 64 seats
President Carlos Salinas has staked his political legacy and the credibility of the PR1 on signing the agreement before he leaves office
Although many Industrial lata, small businessmen, unions, farming groups, nationalists and leftists are not enthusiastic about NAFTA, the PR1 will ensure its peaceful imposition.
The most difficult leglsla Uve task facing Salinas will be lobbylng the US Congress and the Canadian Parliament for
In Canada, where the 1988 free trade accord with the US has fuelled unemployment. Prime Minister Brian Mulroney's popularity has plummeted to 29 per cent of the electorate while approval of NAFTA Is another seven per cent lower
Mulroney could face an election within months, and he wants to move NAFTA quickly to put such unplcas-antries behind him. Yet pushing ratification will put at risk his advantage In parliament.
And the left-centre New Democratic Party, which could become a coalition partner with the Liberal Party in a new government, is pledged to abrogate NAFTA within 60 days if It gets power
The US Congress Is likely to keep Salinas hanging on to the edge of his seat for many months. Much rests on who wins the presidential elections.
Although the withdrawal of the maverick H Ross Perot, who opposes NAFTA because of short-term job loss to Mexico, has left two White House can didates who support the treaty. Democratic Party challenger Bill Clinton has begun to draw distinctions between his vision of NAFTA and that of President George Bush.
Clinton has repeatedly risked labour union support by endorsing the treaty “In principle" - largely, he says, because of the gargantuan market it opens for US goods and services. He now Indicates that he will renegotiate key environ-
mental and worker retraining provisions if he becomes president.
The announcement on Au gust 11 that agreement had been reached on NAFTA thrust the Issue of free trade with Mexico Into the middle of the US election campaign. Wash ington pundits suggest the news was timed to boost Bush's Image on the eve of the Republican Convention in Houston. Texas.
The slate of Texas is an tm-
portant electoral prize and under the agreement ft is ex pectcd to be a big commercial winner. Actual consideration of NAFTA by Congress will not begin until next spring.
Congress will have 90 days to vole It up or down without modifications in language - the so-called fast track procedure that was approved in May 1991
by a scant 35 votes.
With 100 seats and the entire US Senate up for grabs In November, that slim margin may be challenged In the new Congress. Even with Mexico's estimated billion-dollar lobbying barrage, further souring of the recession-riddled US economy could put pressure on the new Congress and lead to NAFTA's defeat
If NAFTA clears all the leg islatlve hurdles ft would take effect In January 1994 with tariff reductions coming in at five. 10 and 15-year stages
What defeat or deferral would do for Mexico is an untested scenario. Constitutionally. Salinas has to stand down In 1994 and failure to complete a signed treaty will sorely erode the PRTs already tattered credibility. Such an outcome would also exacerbate traditional Mexican distrust of the big neighbour to the north
Whatever happens, the indelible imprint of free trade Is fast transforming Mexico Into the southern most outpost of North America. One thousand US based fast food franchises (including 300 McDonald's) now stipple the central Mexican landscape.
United Parcel Service de livers the mall. Pepsi Cola has bought up an entire ejido (rural communal production unit) in the north.
Mexico's trade deficit with the US has ballooned to a record busting 20 billton dol lar In the past year— roughly equal to Its cash reserves
With or without NAFTA. 500 years after the coming of the conquistadors ft seems the New Conquerors are setting in for an extended stay —GEMINI NEWS