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South Asian Economic Bloc: Will it Ever Materialise?

by Nilratan Halder
IT lakes ■ nun of vision to see into the futurr The vision in order is more so when the Improbable Is the subject of prediction Kuldip Nayar is no visionary: nor Is he an ordinary man With no less than four decades of distinguished Journalistic career behind him. specialising In domestic and International affairs, he is more competent than most to pass Judgement on Issues concerning the politics of the South Aslan region. But when the veteran Journalist, more known as a columnist with in clstve Insight, almost certainly predicts a grouping — more economic than otherwise -among the states of the region within next 20-25 years, not many people would be found to buy hts idea, much less to share his conviction.
Now the question is, If what he envisions Is completely outlandish What Is tl»c basis of his inferences to reach such a conclusion? Economic com pulsion, more than anything else, according to Kuldip, will be the deciding factor Even a cursory look at the developments sweeping across the wide world at a very fast pace will most certainly point to the fact that there is enough pith in Ills argument. Economic ne cesslty. not military interests, has brought the West European countries together to look for ward to a one Europe. In a counter move. America has formed with Mexico and Canada a North American trad Ing sone - the world's largest uptlll now Diplomatic forays by Japan into ASEAN (Association of South East Aslan Nations) countries along with China and other nations of the region manliest lire Japanese concern for its trading Interests abroad Add to thia the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the abrupt departure of commu nism from the East European soil there Indeed emerges a set of new priorities (ar re moved from the one before the end of the Cold War
In a more-than-ever-before competitive world, the group Ings of nations, aimed to pro led thetr collective but no iesi selfish interests, are the natu ral outcome The free markei economy certainly has thii drawback of not being enough liberal when it comes to the question of unrestricted trade the world over On no accouni were It desirable to drag the row over the conflicting Inter ests tn the General Agreement on Tariff and Trade (GATT talks. But the unpleasant hai taken place only because the rich nations, particularly America and Europe, have not found a meeting point of then Interests. Nations, therefore, are Increasingly looking lor al lies to strengthen their individual economic positions through such regional collec Live fora The EC. in particular. Is moving fockstock-and-bar re I towards that end The rat-son d'etre for its member countries can under no circumstances be more compulsive and greater than the peoples of the South Aslan region for getting so cfoser
therefore. the point Is that the compulsion behind the SAARC countries to bind
themselves In a sort of economic bloc not in the sense of EC integration but a more loosely arranged system for looking after their common economic interests, will tn the coming days prove overriding. If the present trend of diminishing military options continue. there is every likelihood of the rivalries between India and Pakistan ending up In a negotiated settlement Terri torial disputes will prove less contentious because the general consensus will weigh heavily In favour of preserving their existence more than accruing new land which may be an added liability Indeed, devolution of power rather than Its centralisation will gain currency because that way the separatist movemenu now taking a heavy toll of lives and resources In India. Pakistan. Sri Lanka and Bangladesh can be brought under effective control.
Political considerations apart, the geographical proximity offers a vast market the potential of which need to be exploited through a collective decision by the members of the SAARC The technology
required for the means of production Is there, the unity among the diversity of the peoples socio-cultural settings should prove an advantage rather than the reverse. True, the stages of scientific and technological development In the different member countries have not been uniform; but the gaps are not unbridgeable. so for as the means of production are concerned. What Is Important Is their Identical needs, social advancement climate of investment as well as the problems of marketing the merchandise and the absence of adequate Infrastructure for production and distribution Ethnic problems. no doubt, will still put pressures at times on the administrations of these countries but to what extent they will exacerbate will depend on (ar tors that have until now only marginally come into focus
The most outstanding of those factors Is the quality of life of the peoples tn the region While the peoples of the EC nations enjoy a relatively decent living standard — even not excluding the ones at the bottom of society — the major ity of the population in the SAARC eke out a living pitiably low A minimum standard of
life is a prerequisite for the peoples of different geographic entitles to get closer under the umbrella of a supra-natton For the EC. the move has opened up a new vista In cooperation among nations —notwithstanding the multifarious difficulties. If the new realities are so overpowering for the European nations, the South Asians, with the more or less same level of poverty among them, could find virtue In a similarly close cooperation. But that is not to be Even the basis of a re spectable and fruitful coopera tion ought to be a quality of life achieved through ensuring a minimum socio-economic Justice for all people Intra-na tfonally If a sensible social
order within a nation can be established, only then the at tempt for a regional enduring tie stands to be successful
Evidently, the absence of such a social order tn each of the countries of the region will prove to be the greatest stum bling-block Equitable distribu Uon of wealth has so far not become the strongest point for the South Asian countries This, in turn, lias been respon-sible for the low level of edu cation and culture among the people at the lowest rung of society Even the rising fundamentalism in parts of Asia can be explained by this fact of life. A lot will depend on how the individual countries separately deal with this ever in creasing trend of social polar! satlon. Resources. Instead of trickling down to the poor, must be rationally available to al). Only then the social advancement In the region will reach a stage where all will discover a workable meeting point.
The common man does not directly take part tn a negotiation for a closer regional link, but silently his actions ultimately decide the fate of state-to-state relations. There fore, the South Asian nations should give top priority tn re ducing the existing social disparities in society Otherwise, optimism of people like Kuldip Nayar notwithstanding, any economic bloc of South Aslan nations will remain elusive