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ON THE RECORD

Politics in Thailand — Beginning of a New Phase

by Shah AMS Kibria
POUTTCS In Thailand haa taken a fascinating turn. The bloody attempt by the military to Impose its will on the people haa failed. Quite clearly, the flrat round haa been won by the people.
The laat minute deciaion made by the King, reportedly on the advice of the Speaker of the Parliament, prevented the appointment of Mr Samboon Rahong, the leader of the coalition backed by the military. Instead, much to the sur prise and perhaps relief of the people. Mr Anand PanyaraChun has been appointed by the king as the interim Prime Minister Mr Anand has declared that he will dissolve the Parliament in two or three weeks and hold general elections in four months time. This decisive action by the king seems to have diffused tension and ended the political uncertainty In the country. In fact, this also marks the beginning of a new phase in the Thai pcopk-'s long struggle to establish democ racy tn the country.
It Is perhaps too early to predict the future of Thal poll tics. Has the mtllthry decided ' to call It quits and return to the barracks? I doubt It. Thai armed forces still believe that they are the custodian of the country’s Interests. This belief is so firmly embedded In the psydhe of the officer corps that it Is considered to be almost a divine right to intervene In
politic* when they deem it right. A belief held for more than half a century cannot be shaken ao easily But the learning process has begun. The bloody riots of 1973 and 1992 have no doubt taught a lesson to those tn the military who are willing'to learn. The trouble Is that some of the officers may not be keen to learn. Per sonal ambition as well as greed for money and power may stand in the way for them to see the writing in the wall.
The military seems lo have failed to notice the fundamen tai change that has occurred tn the last three decades in the structure of the That society. The phenomenal economic progress achieved by the coun try In the last three decades has created a large and affluent middle class Industrial worker* without much link with land are concentrated tn urban centre*. The tempo of economic growth has quickened In the last ten years creating a new yearning for a life style similar io that In the developed countries. Even the rural population Is not immune to the Influence of the western values though the military still seems to have some hold on them.
The urban population, growing rapidly in number and wealth, are assuming the characteristics of an industrial cul ture, similar to that in Korea and Taiwan. Higher education is having its impact on the ur
ban elite. The businessmen, conscious of their power and strength and supported by the educated urban youth, are unwilling to accept the domination of the military. Thus, one can sec the current power struggle as a fight between the entrenched power of the Thal military and the rising Indus trialists, bankers and business magnet*. Since Thal politics 1* not Ideologically oriented ft was very easy for the busi-
nessmen to gain control of the political parties and establish their hold on political power. Despite wide spread corruption among the politicians — primarily drawn from business circles (and some retired military officers) they succeeded in getting the support of the educated youth as the lesser of the two evils This ambivalence on the part of the academics and students was evident in their attitude towards the
Chaichai Govt ousted by Gen Sur hinda Gen Chaichai was the first elected Prime Minister In many year* but hi* administration was generally be lieved to be thoroughly cor rupt. Yet the academic* and students were calm. The coun try was economically making rapid strides and the rapidly rising level of income and employment ensured a degree of stability though the Chatchai Govt did not enjoy much public respect. Perhaps this is why there was no public outcry when Gen Suchinda staged hl* ooup to set the stage for his eventual take over He did not lake Into account the combined strength and power of the urban middle class and the business community. Of course, the agitation gained strength and momentum be cause of the leadership pro vldcd by charismatic persons like Gen Chamfong — the popular governor of Bangkok. A devout Buddhist and an ascetic. Chamlong’s leadership was crucial for the success of the mass uprising against the military's grab for power.
The king and the royal family has traditionally provided stability lo That society and this is especially evident in turbulent periods such as one witnessed In the last few weeks. The king Is not only revered because of hfs position as the monarch but also as an Individual who has served his subjects with dedication ever
since he ascended the throne. He is very careful in adhering strictly to the principles of this occasion the nation looked up to him for guidance and he responded. The appointment of Anand Panyarachun is seen which will stabilize the country and put the economy back on
The fight between the military and the civilian demo cralic forces in the country is far from over The politicians will have to earn the respect of the common men and women before they are seen as the genuine champions of democracy and people's rights. The armed forces will have to readjust to the changed circumstances. Thailand is no longer and agricultural country. The rapid growth of industry and urban population has created a society vastly different from the largely rural one over which the military dominated.
The educated urban youth and the industrial workers nre 1m-bued with western Ideas and values. Quite clearly they will not rest until the political ay* tern in the country is modified lo reflect their aspirations for freedom and democracy. However while the military haa been restrained for the present they are not yet defeated.
We have to wait for the next phase to see the final outcome.