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A Budget with the Right Thrust
The budget announced by the Finance Minister Saifur Rahman last Thursday for the financial year 1992-93 is bold, balanced'and a bit risky, It is bold in its tax reforms, balanced in its thrust for the private sector with necessary emphasis on social sectors; and finally, it Is a bit risky because one is not sure what the ultimate Impact of the reduction of agricultural subsidy will be on farm ers. especially the small ones. Tne Finance Minis ter deserves a pat on the back for making the best of a difficult sitbation.
In the area of lax reforms the budget moves away from the traditional and populist — but in reality self-defeating — position of piling up tax burden on those who can pay In its place the budget introduces a maximum level of direct per sonal income tax of 30 per cent, with the first Tk 40.000 being totally exempted. It also reduces corporate tax These are welcome moves. It is our hope that the higher income groups, who will benefit most from the reforms, will voluntarily pay taxes and help to broaden the tax-base.
The private sector thrust of the budget is not only natural under the circumstances but is also desirable in view of our own experience with public sector performance. Yet it did not go all the way in this direction because a developing country like ours is not yet ready to abandon the whole economy to market forces alone which, we have learnt from experience, tend to disfavour the disadvantaged groups. Therefore, ours has to be a stage by stage approach and the budget reflects it. Concerns for social sectors, especially education and health, are the hallmarks of the budget. However, a point needs to be made here that the government should be under no illusion that increased spending in education and health will lead either to better education or improved health care. That will depend on the efficiency of administration in general and the effectiveness of the ministries concerned, whose past performances do not inspire too great a confidence.
The reduction of agricultural subsidy, no doubt a result of donor conditionalities, is a’ risky step. Given the fragile nature of our rural economy and the caprice of nature that it is regularly subjected to, it is difficult to predict the overall impact of this move by the government.
While a more serious judgement of the impact of the budget will have to await indepth study, the initial reaction has been one of a pleasant surprise. However, as the Finance Minister himself pointed out in his budget speech, much will depend on the investment climate in the country. A necessary pre-condition for which is improvement in the law and order situation. Many of the incentives provided for in the budget will remain unavailed as the potential investors — both foreign and local, especially the former — will shy away from risking their investment in an environment where the rudimentary conditions of security are sometimes found wanting.
The budget has set the stage for an improved performance of the economy. But much — and we mean much — will depend on the governments ability to administer judiciously, stop corruption with a firm hand, and bring the armed miscreants to book immediately. Tne government must hold firm to the priorities indicated in the budget and not succumb to public demonstration by this group or the other and change budget allocation; some examples of which we saw last year.
The government will also have to ensure that the tax relief provided in the budget must reach the public and not remain in the pocket of the traders or the business community.
We expect a lively debate in the parliament on the budget. The first day's boycott by the opposition— save Jamaat — does not augur well. We are convinced that avenues are still open to engage the Treasury and the Opposition benches in a serious dialogue. We urge both sides to show flexibility and not to get trapped into their own positions. Politicians should remember that the nation is far above their parties, and that people are sitting on judgement on their performance.