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ADB forecasts 4.7 pc GDP growth this year

By Staff Correspondent
The Aslan Development Bank (ADB) has forecast a growth of 4 7 per cent in the Gross Domestic Product (ODH of Bangladesh during the rur rent financial year
William R Thomson, visiting Vice-President of the Bank disclosed this yesterday while briefing academicians, gov emment servants and media men on the Asian Development Outlook. (ADO). 1992. pub Hshed Just recently
ADO. the annual review of the economies of the member countries of the Bank, is being
published for the fourth con secutlvc year. The present edition of the ADO consists of three parts. review of macro economic situations, reports on member countries and a rotating special topic on rural poverty In Asia
The Bank also believes the country will achieve a growth of 5.2 per cent In ODP during the coming financial year
Emphasising the need for a balanced development programme. the ADB Vicc-Prcsl dent said that the projected improvement in the economy
of Bangladesh over the next two years would lesid to higher real wages, a marginal redue tlon In the rate of unemployment and lower Incidence of poverty
Referring to the lending situation of the Bank, the Vice-President said that Indonesia was the largest borrower with 1.2 billion US dollars followed by India with 900 million US dollars
Thomson said that ihe world economy was undergoing a profound transfornwiion and at a time when the devel oping countries were tn neec of capital inflow.
Referring to the reforn measures Introduced in differ ent countries, the Vlce-Prcsi dent said that the reforms o the present decade woul< raise the rate of economi< growth in many countries. Bu he added 'official developmen assistance and commercia lending are likely to be constrained in coming days.'
The Vice-President furlhci added that peace and order ir the region would be sufficien in coming days to generate re sources to use tn social secton like education and so on.
Underscoring the need foi alleviating rural poverty, Thomson said that availability of credit was important in tha direction.
Presenting the findings o the ADO, John M Dowling Jr Assistant Chief Economist o the Bank said that the Industrial sector policy reforms introduced in Bangladesh pro vldcd for very lucrative Incentives for overseas investors anc were expected to attract substantial amount of direct for eign investment.
The balance of payments was expected to improve during the next two years, work ers' remittances would bt higher and merchandise exports were expected to In crease by 13 per cent during the next two financial years, h< added.
Dowling, however, added that the debt service ralic would exceed 21 per cent ir coming years, marginally higher than tn 1991, as the increase in debt-service payments would outpace the Increase In export earnings ol Bangladesh.
The ADO, referring to prospects for growth in the country, says that unless the government makes a major effort to ovcrcorqe the problems of education, health and so on, the possibilities of rapid and substantial improvements ir human resource development that are crucial for achieving sustainable growth over the longer term will be very limited.
Former member of the Planning Commission Dr Sha-hadat Ullah, Professor Abdullah Faruk. S M Al-Hussainy. former chairman of the Public Service Commission. Subid All. President, Chamber of Industries. Dr Harun-ur-Rashld. Secretary, Planning Division and Professor Muhammad Ma sum of Jahangirnagar(Univer-slty raised some questions about the lending operations of the Bank in Bangladesh.
In reply to a questioner the ADB officials said that Bangladesh had a rich experience in alleviating poverty. ADB is a newcomer in this field and would like to share the experiences of Bangladesh In this regard.
G H P B Van der Linden, chief of the Bangladesh Resident Office of the Bank and Truman Becker, Information Officer of the bank were also present during the briefing.
Incidentally, the Bank Is celebrating the 25th year of its existence this year. Starting with 30 members back in 1966. the ADB today has 36 countries of the region as members. The members are represented by their governments while the Bank has a committee to formulate the policies. The present President of the Bank Is Ktmtmasa Tarumizu of Japan, also the executive head. Of the total members . 28 are borrowing countries. There are 16 non regional countries linked to the Bank that provide resources.
The Bank provides loan on a 6.5 per cent rate of lending, likely to change in coming days
There was a time when South Korea was the biggest beneficiary of the services provided by the Bank. Today, the lop four beneficiaries are Indonesia, India. Pakistan and China
ADB sources told The Daily Star that the Bank was speeding up Ils operation in Afghanistan. Mongolia. Viet nam and Cambodia and the rotating special topic of the ADO for 1993 would foc us on transition from centrally pla nned economy to market economy