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News Analysis

India looks at visit of Begum Zia in an upbeat mood

Kuldip Nayar, The Daily Star Guest Columnist, cables from New Delhi
With the stage set to accord Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia a warm welcome on her first-ever state visit to India, starting tomorrow, officials here appear ready to discuss the whole range of bilateral issues In Indo-Bangladesh rcla Hons, in an atmosphere of goodwill and understanding
However, while they recognise the differences between the two sides on most of these Issues, they acknowledge that Begum Zias return to Dhaka without any assurance from New Delhi on water may have adverse political fallout. As the first democratically elected
Prime Minister of Bangladesh, after Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, she has succeeded In restoring the people's rule to her country once again. The failure of her visit can "tell upon the process," as an analyst here puts tt.
As seen from here. Dhaka s current "obsession," as some observers describe It. Is the water from the Ganges. To a large extent. It Is understandable why tt blames New Delhi for Its ills because not enough water is being let through the Ganges for use in Bangladesh. Nearly 30 million people have been affected and even the standing crop has wilted beyond redemption. There are only 13,000 cusecs of water available against 30,000 which flowed from 1977 to 1982 when India had guaranteed that much minimum to Bangladesh through an agreement.
However, India Is not alone to blame. One part of the agreement was that both Bangladesh and India would look for alternative sources to augment water. But the two sides turned down each other's proposals. New Delhi did not agree to Dhaka's suggestion to associate Kathmandu, a third parly. Io build reservoirs in Nepal to increase the quantum of waler. Now, to Ihe Irritation of Dhaka, India has signed such an agreement with Nepal.
Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which have depleted the Ganges further by drawing more water from It are governed by opposition parties. Il Is different with West Bengal
which may not like to fritter away even the limited gain from the Farakka Barrage.
Officials here say that the sharing of waters In the past, covering the period between January and May averaged 55 per cent for Bangladesh and 45 per cent for India. Even in recent two months, when the flow at the Farakka came down to around 55,000 cusecs from nearly 80.000 cusecs In January and February. India honoured Its part of the agreement, withdrawing only 35,000 cusccs of water.
Begum Zia has picked up the thread from where ft was let off in 1982. Her personal envoy, Bangladesh Minister for Irrigation Majcdul Huq has prepared the ground. But It is not easy to span the sterile relationship of one decade, of arguments and counter- arguments, accusations and counter-accusations.
Besides, Prime Minister Naraslmha Rao told Majcdul Huq that his Is after all a minority government, a constraint when II comes to taking
major daring long-term policies.
It Is against this background that the two sides can reach some kind of an understanding that paves the way for moving forward. However, Indian sources say that whatever agreement is visualised, it should be for four to five years and that during this period. Bangladesh must have its own projects completed to augment water. The Bangladesh Irrigation Minister agreed to this when he talked to some of us during his visit to New Delhi.
However, all said and done. India has an obligation towards Bangladesh, human and political. When millions In a neighbouring country (ace starvation because of niggardly supply of water, India cannot think of washing away the silt from the Hooghly or making Calcutta port more operational. True, there is no contractual comm-itment but the human family is one. We can argue that there is less water in the Ganges and that Bangladesh should share "our inadequacies." But India
cannot refuse to guarantee some minimum quantity of water.
Even by hinting at closing the door on Begum Zia, New Delhi would give the anti-India elements In Bangladesh a talking point. As some observers here say. there is a whispering campaign In Bangladesh that New Delhi Is "punishing" Khaleda Zia for having defeated "pro-lndla" Sheikh Hasina. It is said here that this line Is being fuelled by some of the leaders of the ruling BNP and that the Prime Minister Zia has taken no steps to silence them. During her talks In the Indian capital, she should indeed provide some evidence of her personal anxiety to contain the antl-lndla lobby.
As seen from here, prospects Indeed look good for the success of Begum Zia's state visit to India, a visit that should generate goodwill and cooperation between the two neighbours at both bilateral and regional levels.