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Crude oil prices become firm while gold eases, tea remains steady
LONDON. May 24: North Sea Brent crude prices rallied this week during OPEC's meeting in Vienna as. contrary to expectations, there appeared to be a consensus in favour of maintaining the output ceiling at around the same level in the third quarter, reports AFP.
OPEC Oil Ministers appeared to be moving towards an agreement In early afternoon Friday.
Oil sources had feared before the meeting started that Saudi Arabia. OPEC’s biggest producer, would insist on the celling being raised by one million barrels per day (BPD) from Its current level of Just below 23 million BPD. But by Friday. Saudi Arabia seemed prepared to accept a compromise, gfv Ing Kuwait and may be Saudi Itself a slightly higher quota.
Coffee prices, which recently fell to their lowest levels since the early 1970s. staged a partial recovery. Brazil and Colombia, the world's leading producers, appeared to be closing the gap In their positions on a new Internationa] agreement.
The market was waiting for the producer meeting of the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), due from May 27 to 29 In lx>ndon.
Unilateral initiatives, such as Costa Rica s suspension of export* last week, seemed to be no substitute for concerted international action.
On the London Metal exchange (LME), zinc firmed and cash prices retained a high premium over forward metal on renewed optlons-relaled trade. Copper firmed as traders looked ahead to US labour negotiations in June. But tin fell back on profit-taking, after reaching 19-month highs, and aluminium reduced Ils gains as stocks rose to new record highs and demand remained weak.
Gold : Quiet. Gold prices eased slightly tn quiet trading. The group Gold Fields Mineral Services said In its annual re port, considered as the "bible" of the gold market, that western mining production- had grown by Just two per cent In 1991, the weakest growth rate in the past decade Production was "edging towards a plateau", the report said. Total supply of gold in the western world fell for the llnil time since 1983 last year, falling by over three per cent to 2.815 tonnes.
But lower Investor demand and lack of speculative buying interest had pushed gold prices down by six per cent to Ihclr lowest levels in real terms since the 1970s, making more than a third of the producing industry unprofitable.
But gold fields noted that It was difficult to predict the future trend A prices, as 56,000 tonnes of gold as well, as gold coins were stockpiled and could be sold on the market at any time.
Platinum : Erratic. After a hesitant start, platinum was supported by buying attributed to a US trade house, but later lost some of Its gains.
Johnson Matthey, the world's leading platinum reftner, gave what was considered an encouraging assessment of prospects for ihe metal in its annual report. Tie report predicted price* would recover from the third quarter of this year, due to an improvement tn the balance between supply
and demand.
Silver : Slightly weaker. Silver prices eased on the back of gold.
Copper : Firmer after weak start. Prices fell at the beginning of the week, despite a wage settlement In the German engineering industry Far East buying interest and hopes for an upturn in the market then supported copper prices from mid-week.
Analysts GNI predicted prices would rise in the shortterm, due to labour negotiations al US producers representing 800,000 tonnes/year of capacity over the coming weeks.
LME stocks fell 6,025 tonnes to 265,725 tonnes.
Zinc . Firmer. Zinc prices firmed after a hesitant start, on a renewed bout of opttons-related buying, traders said.
The premium for spot metal over three-month metal re mained high at 94 dollar tonne by the end of the week, but narrowed from 103 dollar at the end of last week.
The backwardation, a feature of the market since the end of March has reportedly been caused by certain traders buying to raise physical prices. Then selling their physical supplies to buy forward metal al a discount.
LME stocks rose 2,000 tonnes to a new record high of 256,950 tonnes.
Lead : Firmer after weak start. Prices fell at the beginning of the week, stabilised on consumer buying at the lower levels, then showed signs of an upturn towards the end of the week.
Japanese demand for lead was slack, according to traders In Tokyo, as battery manufacturers, the main end-user of lead In Japan, had excess stocks.
LME stocks rose 300 tonnes over the week to 136,650 tonnes.
Tin : lx>wer after strong start. Tin prices fell back at the end of the week on a wave of technical-based selling and profit-taking, after soaring to ihetr highest since October 1990, breaching the 6,300 dollars/tonncs level in early trading Thursday.
In Kuala Lumpur, Un prices reached new 10-month highs. The head of one of Malaysia's two smelting companies said prices were boosted by consumer demand.
Lme stocks rose 730 tonnes to 12.775 tonnes.
Aluminium: Easier after firm start. Prices lost some ground towards the end of the week on profit-taking, after breaching the 1.350 dollars/tonncs level mid-week.
Analysts al Billiton Enthovcn Metals forecast a slight rise in the average price of aluminium this year, to 60 ccnt/pound against 59.1 cent in 1991.
But the rally will accelerate ip 1993 to bring the average price to 75 cent, they said. The supply surplus in the West, which climbed to 915,000 tonnes in 1991, should decrease io 265.000 tonnes in 1992 and eventually turn into a 250,000 tonne deficit in 1993.
The latest International Primary Aluminium Institute (IPAI) figures showed western world production rose by an average dally rate of 400 tonnes in April from March, to
39,700 tonncs/day.
LME stocks rose by 7,825 tonnes to a record 1.239,500 tonnes.
Nickel : Easier. Nickel prices were hardly changed, and ended the week slightly down in a dull market, as they were unable to sustain levels above 7,400 dollar/tonnc, traders said.
LME stocks rose 336 tonnes to 27,390 tonnes.
Coffee : Firmer. Prices were supported by efforts by the world's two largest producers, Brazil and Colombia, to unify their stance on a new International agreement.
Representatives of the two countries met Monday in Rio de Janeiro and later indicated they had virtually closed the gap between their respective viewpoints. They agreed in particular on unification of the world market, the global volume of export quotas and methods of controlling quotas.
Sugar : Easier. Prices eased, despite a violent three-day military suppression of anti-government demonstrations in Bangkok.
Operators did nol expect disruptions to deliveries from Thailand, where 1991-92 production was estimated at 5.15 million tonnes by I-ondon traders Czarnikow, against 4.05 million tonnes last year.
London traders ED and F Man estimated that world sugar production would exceed consumption by three million tonnes tn 1991 -92.
Cocoa : Weak. Cocoa prices continued to ease, falling to their lowest levels In 17 years on fears of new sales by Ivory Coast and a lower forecast for this year's world production deficit from a London trade house
London traders GUI and Duffus revised Ihclr forecast for the world deficit In cocoa production against consumption for 1991-92 (October-September) to 107,000 tonnes from 177,000 predicted in January. This was largely due to a higher estimate for Ivory Coast's production, and sharply lower consumption In the former Soviet Union. But GUI and Duffus stressed that a second annua! deficit in 1992-93 would boost pricey.
The market remained depressed by the prospect of Increased sales from Ivory Coast.
Vegetable oil* : Weak. Vegetable oil prices eased despite lower estimates 'for harvests of Polish Rapeseed and Argentinian Sunflowerseed.
According to newsletter OU World. Poland s rapeseed bar vest could fall to Ils lowest level in eight years, at around 0.9 million tonnes, compared to 1.04 million tonnes last year.
The Sunflower oil market could benefit from the fall in Argentina's output to 3.26 million tonnes from 4.03 million tonnes last year, oil world predicted. But the combined impact of the tower harvest and low world stocks of Sunflower oil was not expected to be felt until September
Palm oil prices, on the other hand, firmed on news of a tower-than-expected rise in Malaysia's stock*. The stocks rose by 5.2 per cent at the end of April compared to a month earlier, to 509,922 tonnes.
Crude Oil : Firmer after weak start. North Sea Brent prices fell before the start Wednesday of OPEC talks in Vienna, as analysts feared the cartel would raise its output ceiling by one million barrels per day (BPD) for the third quarter of 1992.
According to specialist publications Petrostrategies and Middle East Economic Survey (MEES), Saudi Arabia was expected to ask for the global production ceiling, now slightly below 23 million BPD, to be raised to at least 24 million BPD.
But prices began to recover Thursday, as operators speculated on the real reason for the absence from the Vienna meeting of Saudi Oil Minister Hisham Nazer, who. according to Saudi sources, was overworked. Some saw it as a snub of Iran, which was seeking a cut in OPEC's output ceiling. Others saw Nazer's absence as an attempt to push prices up.
Prices continued to rise as II became clear that OPEC was moving towards a compromise of maintaining its production virtually unchanged in the third quarter. Delegates indicated Friday morning that they were hoping to convince Saudi Arabia to accept either no change or a modest rise in the production ceiling. They added that Saudi Arabia appeared conciliatory.
London analysts on Friday morning were expecting a rise of about 400,000 BPD In Kuwait’s quota and one of about 100,000 BPD for Saudi Arabia. These changes would raise the total ceiling to about 23.5 million BPD.
Rubber : Weak. Rubber prices fell back in spite of a violent end to demonstrations tn Bangkok. Thailand Is the world's leading natural rubber producer, with production estimated at 1.373 million tonnes in 1991 by the Internationa] Rubber Study Group.
The International Natural Rubber Organisation (INRO) embarked on an eight-day meeting in Kuala Lumpur Tuesday. Producer countries threatened to abort, the International agreement if consumers continue to refuse to negotiate a more effective pact to support prices, and said they would revert to the 1975 agreements which excluded consumer*.
Grain* : Easier after strong start Grain prices eased after a strong start on the London market, while in Chicago they fluctuated following weathe r forecasts for producing regions in the US which have been affected by hot, dry conditions.
The agreement reached Thursday In Brussels on a radical reform of the European Community (EC)'s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to lake effect from 1993-94 did not affect prices. The reform Is expected to lead to a 29 per cent fall tn the grain Index price over three years and a freezing of 15 per cent of arable land of EC farmers.
Tea : Steady. Demand was slightly more selective this week on the London auction, but prices remained firm due to the drought affecting production In India, Malawi, Zim babwe, ^^vcragc^pr^cc*^ for quality grade* steadied at 145 pencc/kllto. medium grade* at 105 pence and tow medium grades at 88 pence.
Cotton : Quiet. The index was hardly changed on the Liverpool market, where the trend remained cautious due to a lack of demand from Europe.