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Oil prices likely to soar by one dollar per barrel

OPEC decides not to sell an extra barrel
VIENNA. May 23: Saudi Arabia, angered by the European Community s pro posed energy tax and hardup for cash, finally did what the rest of OPEC has begged for by keeping oil output low enough to set oil prices jumping, reports Reuter
The world s biggest crude exporter and champion of moderate prices agreed on Friday not to sell any extra bar rels during the coming months even though the market Is headed Into a period of high demand
"Saudi Arabia is convinced that an Increase of one. two or three dollar will have no effect
at all on (world) economic growth or demand for oil." a senior Gulf Arab delegate said after the Organisatlun of Petroleum Exporting Countries set an output agreement which is widely expected to boost prices.
"In real terms the price is low The price should be a lit tk bit higher. 20 to 22 barrel a dollar Is really very reasonable for Saudi Arabia.' said the delegate, speaking on condition he was not Identified
Long time price hawk Iranian Oil Minister G ho Lam reza Aqazadeh left the two days of talks a happy man, with members ol his delegation
predicting this agreement would add a dollar to oil prices languishing 2.50 dollar below OPEC's 21 dollar target.
Of the 13 OPEC countries, only Kuwait Is free to boost output under the deal as the emirate rebuild an industry shattered by the Gulf War
The net effect will sec OPEC output near 23.5 million barrels per day (BPD), a measly 200,000 barrel above produc tion now
Even if some members cheat on their quotas, Saudi Arabia said it was confident demand would soak up any over prod u ctlon.
It even predicts that de
mand during the northern winter will be the highest level for 12 years at 25.5 million BPD, slightly more than OPEC can produce flat out.
Other members welcomed the new accord.
"I'm very happy with it, said Indonesian Oil Minister Ginanjar Kartasasmita " Il is flood for the market, it is good for OPEC, it Is good for all member countries. I don I think we could get a better agreement than this."
OPEC Secretary General Subroto said he expected a bullish reaction from oil markets that had been braced for OPEC to boost third-quarter
output to 24 million BPD
The fact is that we will pro duce much lower than the 24 million BPD that the market has calculated, he told reporters.
Saudi Arabia’s acting head of delegation at the twice yearly talks also foresaw a good mar ket reaction "1 think it should be favourable." Fayez Ibrahim Bader said
Only Iraq, its exports bottle up by UN economic sanctions, refused to sign, dismissing the d< ;il as a pact the Saudis had -ll< fated to other members
The Gulf delegate source said Riyadh s change of heart
was partly caused by the EC's proposal to raise energy taxes by 10 dollar a barrel by the year 2000.
This step had alerted Saudi Arabia that it should think carefully about the Interna tional oil market, he said
The carbon tax Is not going to reduce the emission of car bon dioxide as the EC only consumes around 20 per cent of total world oil of 66 million BPD. he added.
We better reduce it (CO emission) by increasing oil prices, he said. Saudi Arabia always wants to see higher prices.