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'CIA failed to predict sudden collapse of Soviet Union'
NEW YORK. May 21: The cold war may be over but CIA director Robert Gates fought a new battle on Wednesday to clear his agency of charges that it failed to forecast the sudden collapse of the Soviet Union, reports Reuter.
Seeking to close the books on the Central Intelligence Agency's alleged poor Intelligence about the last days of the former Soviet empire, Gates said In a speech the agency was reporting from 1989 onwards that the superpower was collapsing and that a coup was imminent and could fail if staged.
But the CIA director said the agency had made mistakes, especially tn its analysis of soviet economic strength and in underestimating the drain to the Soviet economy of its massive military spending.
Saying he wanted "to set the record straight," Gates, in a speech to the foreign policy association. listed CIA mistakes about Soviet power but said that overall the agency had done an excellent job.
He said the CIA had made assessment mistakes and that its statistical analysis, "while the best available east or west" ... described a stronger Soviet economy than in fact existed.
He also noted wrongly that CIA statistics were considered so good that even former Soviet Communist Leader Yuri Andropov said he relied on them:
But he added, "from a personal standpoint, I would contend also that our quantitative analysis always considerably underestimated the real burden economically of the Soviet military'.
Answering questions after his speech, he said the CIA has seen little change In "the level of KOB activity in the United States since August 1991 (when the coup attempt failed). The United States is still their primary target, especially American technology. It might not be clear to the Russian leadership that this is taking place."
Gates, a Soviet specialist, has come under intense fire from critics for allegedly mislead-
ing congress and presidents over soviet power and for approving assessments thal led to the expensive US arms race with the Russians.
New YorK Democratic Senator Daniel Patrick Monlyhan once said: The CIA can tell you everything you want to know about the Soviet Union except that it was collapsing .
In his speech Gates rejected such criticism, saying, obviously there were deficiencies In the CIA's work on the Soviet Union — things we did not know and areas where wc were wrong. But the body of information, analysis and warnings provided to policy-makers and to congress were of extraordinarily high quality.
To claim that US intelligence in general and the CIA In particular failed to inform pol icy-makers of the growing crisis or failed to warn of impending collapse of the old order is not consistent with the facts
Gates, who in a 1988 speech warned that "a long competition and struggle with the Soviet Union lies before us", said that from 1989 onwards the CIA was warning repeatedly of a
deepening Soviet crisis and the growing likelihood of a Soviet collapse and coup attempt.
He said these warnings culminated in a May 1991 report on Mikhail Gorbachev's future “that noted that his'domtnation of the Soviet political scene had ended and will not be restored". That paper warned that a coup was possible and If one was not staged that power would shift to the republics.
Although the CIA did not know tn advance of last year's failed c oup against Gorbachev, ft warned the night before In a report given to senior policy-makers that "the danger Is growing that hard-liners will precipitate large scale violence."
Gates said the analysis also described tn some detail the efforts of hard liners to prepare for an attempt to seize power". He also said the CIA warned that a coup, if staged, could fall because people were supportive of democracy and Russian President Boris Yeltsin.