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World's climatic swings may turn one billion people hungry
LONDON. Mny 20 : Swings In the world's climate because of global warming could take the total of jiungry people to one billion by the year 2060. an International study showed, reports Reuter.
The three-year study said only reduction In population growth, full trade liberalisation and major farming changes could mitigate the effects of global warming on world food supply. "We don't believe this is a cause for panic as niuch as for serious concern. There is room for substantial adaptation." British academic Martin Parry told a news conference. The most effective method of avoiding this outcome would be accelerated reduction in population growth fn developing countries."
The study. Commissioned by the US Environmental Protection Agency turd involv-
ing 50 scientists In 18 countries, will be presented at the United Nations Earth Summit next month.
Il did not lake into account the effect of increased restrictions on emissions of Greenhouse gases currently being debated by industrial nations.
Bui Parry said he did not think projected emission cutbacks would substantially alter the findings of the study, whose main alm was to look at the effects of rainfall, wanner tempera ■ tures and rising sea levels on world food production and prices.
"I cannot understand why . . . there is so much emphasis on seeking international agreement on emissions — the front end of the Greenhouse problem — without al the same time thinking In terms of adaptive measures we can put In place with technology now,"
Parry said.
The report projected future yields of wheat, rice, maize and soybeans, which currently .« count for more than 85 per cent of world trade in cereals and legumes.
The key finding was a cut of between one and seven per cent in world cereal production by 2060, with the largest decrease In developing countries.
Reduced supplies, which would lead to higher prices, are estimated to Increase those at risk of hunger by between 60 and 360 mil Hon taking the total to one billion worldwide
Although a forecast rise of an average one to five degrees centigrade would favour agricu) ture in northern Europe and the countries of the former Soviet Union, much of Asia and Africa would be subject to severe drought
Zimbabwe. Kenya, Senegal. Chile and Egypt
were among countries identified as being par llcularly vulnerable because of their scarce waler resources
Reducing the growth In world population, currently estimated to reach up to 10 billion over the next 70 years, plus an Increase in per capita income could reduce the number of those going hungry by 40 per cent, the report said.
Changes In farming practice such as growing different crops, altering planting dales and Improving irrigation schemes could reduce the downturn In cereal production to about five per cent in developing countries.
Full trade liberalisation fn agriculture by 2020 would Improve cereal production and the number of hungry would be reduced by about IOO millton. the report said.