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Kurdish Elections Choose Between Iraq and the West

by Hazhir Teimourian
IRAQ. Kurd* are putting their hope* on • planned leadership election to break the deadlock between their current trader* over whether to resume peace talk* with Baghdad.
Iraq beltvea the election to be a step toward the Kurds separation and ha* vowed to Interrupt it. Iraqi anti-aircraft missiles were moved Into the Kurdish territory bringing a warning from the Western coalition still patrolbng the are and raising concern* of another Iraq-West confrontation.
The talk* were first held in the lummo of last year, soon after the collapse of the Kurdish uprising following the Qulf War. President Saddam Hussein offered a measure of autonomy to the Kurds, but instated on keeping hi* security forces In the Kurdish region
He also refused to define border* for the region, fuelling Kurdish fears of the continue tlon of Saddam's "Arabisation* programme. which is settling large numbers of Arab* tn Kurdistan.
Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). who led the first delegation of Kurdish negotiator* tn Baghdad, believe* negotiation* with Baghdad should stop. He feels the Iraqi leader has no intention of offering the Kurd* any real autonomy.
He also fear* that any agreement with Saddam would provide the Western power*
with an excuse to withdraw the remaining 48 military air craft they keep In eastern Turkey, leaving the Kurd* once more at the mercy of the Iraqi "^•Ubanf. rival for the lead ershtp of Iraq * Kurd* Is Massud Barzani. leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDH Barzani bellcv* the best option is to negotiate with Baghdad and then hope for international guarantee* to any agreement the two sides might reach. He does not have faith in the support of Weitern leader*.
Both option*, however, have serious *hortcomings. If Talabani • advice I* followed and the Kurd* boycott Baghdad peace talks, Western power* might recall their military support, saying that the Kurds are not serious about finding a solution to their predicament
But If Barzani enrrrge* as the leader and talk* are held with Baghdad. II is almost cer-
tain that neither the Western powers nor the United Nation* would guarantee any resulting agreement. Such power* arc wary of being sucked Into what they see a* a potentially end less conflict of ethnic interest*
It I* not po**fble to confl dentiy predict which leader will win the election, ached uled for May 17 Neither I* thought able tn fill the assem bly with bls tribal or party k>y ■lists. The major block of vol Ing delegate* will probably be independent regional person slities and tribal chief*
Barzani • KDP ha* recently fo*t ■ serie* of munktpal elec Rons to the Pt'K and Is press tng for a postponement of the date of the assembly election
In the meantime, the sit uatton remains highly volatile. Since last October, government force* have atopoed food, fuel and machinery from entering the Kurdish region
and have withheld the salaries of large numbers of govern ment employees, such a* teachers and municipals work
In addition, government forurs are continuing to attack villages on the edge of Kurdistan. forcing a quarter of a million more people, largely from the region surrounding the ofl-rlch city of Kirkuk. Into the Kurdistan interior
Western allies seem willing , to continue their military , presence In eastern Turkey to make sure there Is no full at lack on the Kurdish region. At the same time. It seems they are tolerating Iraqi harassment on the edges of Kurdistan to pressure Kurdish leader* to sign a formal peace agreement
An agreement that would last beyond the eventual with drawsl of western Allies would be enough to spare Washington. London and Paris political embarrassment at home over the messy situation
The possibility of another major confrontation between the West and Saddam Hussein may be discounted for the time being. The long term future of the Kurd* and Iraq * other op position groups, however, appear* bleak if Saddam and his Baath Party remain tn power
— GEMINI NEWS
HAZHIR TRIM OCR IAN an Iranian Kurd. is a Middle Cast specialist for The Time* Of London