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Prices: North Sea crude fluctuates, gold weakens, tin firms while sugar goes quiet
LONDON. May 10 : The crash in coffee and cocoa prices continued this week, as the seasonal slowdown in demand coincided with rising sales by producer countries, notably Ivory Coast, reports AFT
Given the high level of world stocks and distant prospects of new international agreements to regulate the markets, analysts viewed a recovery In prices as unlikely. Prices arc now at their lowest level since the beginning of the 1970s.
The other commodities markets were quiet 1n a week shortened by the May Day public holiday on Monday
North Sea crude oil approached the 20 dollar a barre! threshold, but did not manage to breach it. then fell back on profit-taking. The latest report from the International Energy Agency confirmed signs of a recovery In oil demand, show Ing a two per cent rise of oil demand In OECD countries in the first quarter
On the London Metal Exchange (LME) base metals were generally unsettled by strikes In Germany. A prolonged strike by metal workers would lead to a fall in base metal demand in that country, a major European consumer.
However, public sector workers ended their 1 1 ^lay strike Thursday after accept Ing the government's new pay offer, and London-based ana
lysts said this would influence ongoing negotiations In the private sector.
Zinc prices drifted from recent 18-month highs, but the squeeze on the zinc market kept spot prices at a hefty premium over three-montn deliveries.
Precious metals were affected by continuing lack of investor interest.
Gold: Weaker. Gold prices fell gradually in quiet trading, with the Japanese market closed Monday and Tuesday for public holidays.
Operators indicated some demand from Italian Jewellers, covering their requirements before summer. But they said prices were mainly affected by technical factors.
Platinum: Weaker. Platinum fell despite encouraging economic statistics.
US-built car sales leapt by 18.5 per cent year-on-year at the end of April, and British new car sales rose In April for the first time in two and a half year*. This should be positive for platinum, whose main Industrial use is in the manufacture of catalytic converters.
But according to trade house GNI. precious metals are likely to stay at current levels In the short term, as there Is no sign of a rise In Inflation in most western countries or of better demand from investor*.
Silver: Steady. Silver was slightly firmer, boosted by hopes for US economic recov-
ery But it fell back a the end of the week.
Copper: Quiet. Copper prices traded In a narrow range on the LME. as traders watched the situation 1n Germany.
Traders predicted copper prices would rise, however, due to falling sales from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), good demand In the US and uncertainties In copper-producing countries.
The threat of further strikes this year by Chilean port workers, affecting the country's 1.1 million tonnes-/year of copper exports, According to analysts Blllfon-Enthovcn, 1s also potentially bullish.
LME stocks of copper fell 4.300 tonnes over the week, more than double the expected fall, to 275.350 tonnes.
Zinc: Weaker. Prices fell further from 18-month highs achieved at the beginning of last week, as technical tightness on nearby delivery dates eased A 1.000 tonne rise in LME stocks, to a new record high of 245.775 tonnes, contributed to losses.
Lead: Quiet. Lead prices hardly moved. In quiet trading. Some traders however said they hoped higher US car production would boost prices In the coming months.
Tin: Firm. Prices Improved throughout the week, with three-month deliveries brea-
ching the 5,900 dol!a-r/tonne level Tuesday and approaching the 6,000 dollar level by the end of the week.
Traders said the market firmed as commission houses took the opportunity to buy while many operators were out of town, attending an International conference in Phuket, Thailand. They predicted tin prices could rise further in the coming months, if demand remains strong.
Brazilian mining company Paranapancma forecast western world demand for tin would outstrip supply this year by about 17,000 tonnes. This was partly because Brazil, the world’s largest producer country, was expected to cut output by 4.000 tonnes this year, to 25,000 tonnes, as a result of rationalisation.
LME stocks fell 105 tonnes to 11,955 tonnes.
Aluminium: Firmer. Prices rose slightly over the week, despite news Thursday that unions at US producers Alcoa and Reynolds voted for labour contracts to be extended for another year from May 31.
The news that workers at the plants of the two US companies, which represent 1.78 million tonnes/year of production capacity, were not taking any industrial action over their annual pay talks removed the main bullish factor from the market.
Other sources in the Industry predicted aluminium was
poised to benefit from US economic recovery, when it arrives. and from falling CIS ex ports.
LME stocks rose 15.250 tonnes to a new record high of 1.231.750 tonnes.
Weaker. Prices fell steadily over the week, but turned up slightly by Thursday's close.
Prices were depressed by news of an end to the long-■ running dispute at Western Mining Corp's (WMC) Kamb-alda plant in Australia, after miners agreed to switch to seven-day continuous shifts.
WMC is expected to upgrade Its Kambalda operations and increase the group's total output from about 50,000 to 66,000 tonnes/year, the trade publication Metal Bulletin reported.
Coffee: Weak. Prices continued to fell, slumping below the 700 dollar/tonne threshold for the first time In 22 years. Traders attributed the fall to selling by Ivpry Coast and Indonesia, to a seasonal fall in demand and to high stocks.
Consumer stocks stand at 19.2 million 6O-k1lo bags, of which seven million are held in the United States, according to traders ED and F Man.
Sugar: Quiet- Prices fluctuated In a narrow range, in a hesitant market. GNI said the trend was weak, since fears of tight supplies due to a drought in southern Africa had receded. They said that Cuba's harvest would have to be at the
lower end of analysts' forecasts to support prices.
Carlos Lage, a Cuban economy spokesman, said Cuba was facing a difficult year after the collapse of the socialist bloc and disintegration of the Soviet Union. He Indicated that the sugar harvest would be far from the 1991 level, which reached 7.6 million tonnes, according to official figures.
The harvest, which has been hit by a lack of fuel, spare parts and fertilisers, could fall to as low as six million tonnes this year, according to trade sources. In 1992, Havana expects to buy just six million tonnes of oil at world market prices. Instead of 13 million which it received from the former Soviet Unton in 1989, Lage said.
Cocoa: Weaker. Cocoa prices fell to their lowest level in 17 years, depressed by rumours of selling by Ivory Coast. Ivory coast has to sell two-satisfy conditions imposed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), traders said. Abidjan has only sold 140,000 tonnes until now on the world market, according to GNI. Other traders estimated that the country* sales were a* high as 300,000 tonnes.
Vegetable oils: Firm. Vegetable oil prices were supported by figures published in new-fetter OU World, which estimated that world grindings of
oilseeds have risen by 4.4 per cent in the first quarter of 1992, to 43.63 million tonnes.
The figures show a growth in world demand, and resulted from a survey in 44 countries, representing 95 per cent of world grindings.
Palm oil prices firmed, although the US agricultural attache In Kuala Lumpur forecast that Malaysian palm oil exports would reach a record 5.6 million tonnes In 1991-92 (October— September), against 5.44 million tonnes last year.
Soya oil prices firmed on the back of the Chicago market. which rose on hopes of fresh Russian purchases of US agricultural produce. Traders predicted that 150 million dollars' worth of credit guaran tees would soon be allocated, of which at least 20 per cent would go towards purchases of soybean meal.
But price rises were restrained by the Brazilian Vegetable oils Association raising Its forecast for Brazil's 1992 soybean harvest to 18.84 million tonne*, from 14.94 million tonnes last year.
Crude oil: Easier after strong start. North Sea Brent prices seemed on the point of crossing the 20 dollars barrel threshold at the beginning pf the week, boosted by a rise fh the New York market. But they did not achieve this, and then fell back on profit taking.
But the trend remained
firm, supported by the recent upturn in demand for gasoline 1n the US and by hopes for a world economic recovery.
British oil output could fall by seven per cent in May. according to traders GNI, due to maintenance work. According to Royal Bank of Scotalnd figures published last week, oil production fell by 10 per cent in March . due to the high level of maintenance work.
Rubber: Weaker. Prices fell on the back of Far Eastern markets, as fears of a shortage of nearby physical supplies did not materialise, amid signs that US demand was slowing down, a trader said .The strength of sterling contributed to falling prices.
Grain*: Easter after steady start. Wheat and barley future* prices firmed at the beginning of the week, supported by a recent increase in wheat purchases by shippers for nearby delivery.
Concerns about US produc tlon of winter wheat which could be affected by lack of rainfall, also supported price* at the beginning of the week, but these fear* later died down. Profit-taking then reduced the price rise*.
Cotton: Easier after strong start. The index price rose at first on the Liverpool market, but the persistent lack of actlv fty In Western Europe pushed prices down again.