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Singh expects 6 pc Indian growth
NEW DELHI. May 8: Indias economy, bought by foreign in vestment, aid and freed of many government controls, could return to five to six per cents annual growth 1n the next fiscal year. Finance Mln-
"If we can stabilise our foreign Investment capital Inflow at 1-2 billion dollar per annum, our economy (GDP) should grow at the rate of five to six per cent. ' he told Reuters in an interview.
Singh said he expects foreign Investment commitments of one billion dollar in 1992-93 ( April/March) aga Inst 500 million dollar last year and less than 100 million dollar the year before.
Last year (1990-92) our economy grew by about three per cent per annum. That was the first year of the reforms. This year, at the worst, the same rate will be achieved", said the Oxford, educated former economics Professor
"After the current financial year, if we have successful fis cal consolidation, then our economy would go back to a growth path of the order of 5-6 per cent, Singh said
Since taking over as India's Finance Minister last June Singh has designed a revolu-tionary programme of reforms to India's state-controlled economy.
The government has allowed foreigners to take a majority stake in joint ventures, abolished licenses on domestic Industry, decontrolled trade, made the rupee party convertible. and started liberalising the nationalised banking sys tern
"I think the reforms would move at a much faster pace than ever before If we had somewhat larger amounts of foreign exchange to play with
and if we had some grand uncle to take care of the balance of payments situation, he said
India was in the throes of balance of payments crisis last year when foreign banks stopped new lending amid political uncertainty.
India held a general elec-
tion In 1991 which brought in a third government In two year. That year the Gulf crisis had senl oil prices soaring, draining already dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
Today reserves are up to dollar six billton from less than dollar one billion in July, and India la locked Into a painful
fiscal reform programme with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which lent India dollar four billion last year
Singh said ' India s foreign debt was dollar 71 to dollar 73 billion' but was manage able, despite the fact that over two thirds of the country's new loans are earmarked to pay off old debt.
It's true, net transfers are very small, a very large part of our ( loans) Is being used to repay our debt. Singh said.
But I think India s depen dence on the outside world Is pretty small," he added, India s current account deficit Is 2.5 per cent of Its GDP total debt is less than 25 pct of GDP around 70 per cent of the debt is long term, only seven per cent Is short terms.
' India's debt structure is. 1 think, manageable"
He said India needs dollar 2-3 billton in quick-disbursing loans from multilateral Instllu tlons such as the World Bank and the IMF over the next two to three years." So we arc not making exorbitant demands on the international system."
Singh said "India can and should sustain a much larger Inflow of foreign investment" even above the ambitious dollar 1-2 billion a year he Is planning for.
It is my hope that as the economy liberalises, India will take much larger inflows of direct foreign Investment, in fact, most people I have talked to think dollar 10-15 billion inflow of foreign investment for an economy of India's size is not unrealistic.
Tm not making my plans on that. If they come, so much the better. We will welcome । them and we will create facilities for expanding the flow of direct foreign Investment.