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Economy shows signs of improvement: DCCI

Star Economic Report
The Bangladesh economy now reflects a better and more ■table picture, according to the latest Monthly Review of Dhaka Chamber of Commerce and industry (DCCl). '
According to the DCCI Monthly Review, some latest indicators suggest that the economy is gradually coming out of recession.
Agricultural performance particularly that of food crop production, has so far been quite satisfactory this year and this has demonstrated once again the resilience of the key economic sector in Bangladesh. notes the review,
DCCI observes that imports are picking up — though not substantially but in not too negligible ways — reversing the downtrend trend witnessed earlier in the first flve months of the current financial year. The LC openings in December and January showed some up trend, rising between 10 and 15 per cent for both industrial raw materials and customer
Items, it mentions.
Export earnings in the first half of 199 1 92 fiscal year were also higher by 7.63 per cent than those of the corresponding period in 1990-91 It observes.
The higher export receipts were however mainly because of an encouraging growth In two or three items while traditional exports continued to face problems. DCCI said.
The Monthly Review says that economic activities In other sectors — Industry, domestic trade, public sector Investments and associated operations — have also gained some momentum though the expected surge is yet to be evidenced to any marked extends
Still then, some recovery, or at least the arrest of an earlier downtrend on the wider economic front, is now visible in a number of areas and sectors it views.
Alongside this, the Review comments, the country's macro economic situation reflects now a better and a more stable picture. Revenue earnings in the first half of the current fiscal year were satisfactory and the National Board of Revenue (NBR) collected Taka 3125 crore between July and December. 1991 against the projected target of Taka 3075.
Um: government Is expecting still higher revenue earnings for the second half of 1991-92 because Imports arc-picking up and domestic production tn some organised sectors has started showing some improvements, particularly in the wukc of the anti-smuggling operations, DCCI notes.
The country's foreign exchange reserve position ulao remains comfortable, says the Review- mentioning tlwt reserves rose to 1245 million dollar in mid-January 1992 from 881 million dollar on June 30. 1091.
Remittances by Bangladeshi nationals are also steady with the amount totalling about 390 million dollar between July and December In 1991. showing a marginal rise by about one million dollar over the level of corresponding period last year.
11k- rale of Inflation, on the basis of Dhaka Middle Class Cost of Living Indices, was 1.82 per cent between last June and November. DCCI points out that the Consumers Association of Bangladesh (CAB) indicated In Its year-end survey report that cost of index rose by 10.48 per cent in 1991.
The Review noted tluit the monetary and credit situation in the first half of the fiscal year lias otherwise been very stable. Broad Money (M2), representing notes In circulation, demand deposits and time deposits, recorded a growth by about (bur per cent, which was far below the targeted rate of 9.44 per cent.
The DCCI Review mentions that total bank deposits were up by Taka 1183 crore while aggregate domestic credit recorded a net contraction by Taka 820 crore.
Decline tn credit flows was primarily A caused by the adoption of new criteria for credit disbursements. it says. The banks faced the problem of "excess liquidity" which rose from Taka 350 crore on June 30. '91 to Taka 752 crore on December 31. 1991. it mentions.
DCCI strongly feels that there Is now a greater need to take a new stocks of the situation in the banking sector.
It reiterated the demand for extending the time-limit for settlement of credit over-dues with earlier-announced Interest exemption or remission facility upto June 30 next.
Extension of tlmc-llmlt. according to DCCI. will boost business confidence further.
encourage new Investments in the private aector and help sustain the recovery signs that are already in evidence in some sectors.
DCCI urged the authorities to keep a firm control on spiralling current expenditures of the government, take appropriate steps to contain labour unrest on issue* of unreasonable demands and go ahead steadily along realistic line* with appropriate reforms and privatisation of the ailing public sector bodies and autonomous organisations.
DCCI views that such moves will create conditions for sustained growth and support recovery In Ifne with structural economic improvements.
It also suggests that the government make harder efforts to strengthen Its development operations for creating an efficient Infrastructure and alleviating poverty for sustained.