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Wall Street warily awaits Bush plan
NEW YORK. Jan 25 : Wall Street's stock and bond traders are treading very cautiously as they await economic proposals from President Bush to the next few days, reports AP.
In his State of the Union policy message Tuesday and budget proposal Wednesday, the president is expected to lay out a battle plan for stimulating the economy.
Among the numerous possibilities viewed as likely eie- -ments of his strategy are some form of income-tax break to try to bolster confidence and spending among consumers.
Bush also appears poised to call, as he did unavalltngly a year ago. for a reduction in taxes on long-term capital
That last subject, in particular. is close to the hearts of many securities brokers and their customers.
But even with such a prospect to sweeten the pot the stock and bond markets have both turned flat in .recent days.
Analysts say traders are on guard for any surprises. They also note that many Wall Streeters have mixed feelings at best about the benefits of fiscal stimulus to the economy.
The plan is likely to be fairly conventional, including a quick-fix, one-shot tax cut for the middle class," observed Edward Yardeni. chief economist at CJ Lawrence Inc in New York.
"Odds are that the president's plan will be accepted by Congress with some modification by April or May. The fonger^ takes Congress to
pass the package, the worse off will be the economy in the near term.
"Odds are that the final version will Increase the federal deficit during the current fiscal year by 25 billion dollar". Yardeni added.
"Odds are that the economy will respond positively during the second half of the year".
Yardeni said the tax cuts are likely to be spread thin and would only offset federal tax Increases Imposed tn 1990 and local tax hikes introduced in 1991.
"Consequently, don't expect a big economic recovery." he said.
Even if a program emerges that achieves dramatic results, many analysts aren't sure it would automatically be bullish for the markets.
In the first place, a lot of high hopes have already been factored into stock prices with the market's upsurge from Just before Christmas through the early days of January to record highs.
Secondly. Investors might be less than enthusiastic about a pepped-up economy If it showed signs of exerting much upward pressure on inflation and Interest rates'
The net effect of such thoughts was a pullback in stock prices over the past week. The Dow Jones Average of 30 industrials closed Friday at 3.232.78. down 32.20 points from the week before.
The Nasdaq Composite Index for the over-the-counter market fell 2.17 to 624.68. and the American Stock Exchange market value index was down 1.90 at 413.42.