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Extraordinary Events Stir Grains Market

by Ian Steele
A series of unrelated but traumatic events have pushed world cereal prices sharply higher.
The price of rice rose from US$303 to US$315 a ton in July This is US$50 a ton more than its price at the same time in 1990 Hard winter wheat was up US$3 a ton. maize US$7 and sorghum US$9.
Natural disasters, poor weather conditions and political uncertainties have caused the UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) to revise Its forecasts for wheat and rice harvests downward.
The FAO suggests that global food stocks could fall below the minimum levels needed to safeguard food security in 1991-92.
It warns of millions of people in Sub-Saharan Africa threatened by famine. The FAO says that only a massive international relief effort can prevent widespread suffering and loss of life in the months ahead, especially in Ethiopia.
■ Somalia and the Sudan.
There are high spots on the production charts in part* of Asia, in Europe and in Canada. There is a record wheat crop forecast for India. Iran and Pakistan.
But the early performance of the southwest monsoon In Asia has been erratic-ranging from drought tn Indonesia and Malaysia to severe flooding in China
Floods in Mongolia and an earthquake in Afghanistan have worsened unstable farming conditions. There Is uncertainly as to the ultimate size of harvests in China and the Soviet Union.
The forecast for Asia's rice crop has been lowered, following heavy rains and severe flooding In China and Taiwan, an April cyclone tn Bangladesh, the eruption of Mount Pinalubo In the Philippines and draught In Indonesia and Malaysia.
Outputs In Cambodia. Burma. Pakistan and Thailand are forecast to increase however. If normal weather conditions continue through the present growing season.
In the United States' corn belt, drought has lowered expectations for maize.
Unfavourable growing conditions for cereals and pulses are reported from parts of a crumbling Soviet Union.
The extraordinary events which continue to unfold in the Soviet Union have Increased concern for an effective harvest. But there are as yet no new projections on the ultimate scale of the cereal Imports which will be neces-sary.
Coarse grain purchases in the Soviet Union are expected to be 16 million tonnes —four million tonnes more last year. But it will depend on the harvest of crops already in the ground, the level of state procurement. the organisation of Internal distribution and the availability of external credit to pay for Imports.
Coarse grain purchases will also depend on weather conditions during the harvest when serious problems are expected as a result of shortages of machinery, spare parts and fuel. Prior to the coup attempt and tile decision by several of the republics to declare their Independence, the central government was committed to the deployment of military personnel and vehicles to help with the harvest, together with priority fuel supplies for rural areas.
Special incentives were also being delivered to farmers In the hope that they would deliver grain and oil seed in excess of state procurement quotas. The output of wheat and coarse grains this year was projected —prior to the coup attempt—to be down by 17 per cent and 16 per cent, respec-tivety.
In Iraq, large sections of the population face acute food shortages and massive starvation Is a distinct possibility. A United Nations mission to Iraq In June-July reported widespread malnutrition and food prices beyond the reach of most people.
Wheat and rice is trading In Iraq at levels 48 and 22 times their respective levels a year ago. Domestic food production this year is Just one-third of last year's level and government food rations have been cut by two-thlrds.
In the prosperous past. Iraq imported several million workers from Asia to cope with manpower shortages. But the country now has growing unemployment among its own population.
UN mission estimated that to maintain Iraq's pre-war food Intake in 1991-92 would cost some US*2.6 billion if the international community approves the sale of Iraqi oil on the world market to finance purchases. —Depthnews Asia.