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Looking into 1992

Recession Begins to Take Toll of the Political Leaders

by Derek Ingram
***Bob Hawke, who hag just been ousted as prime minister of Australia, may be the first of several political casualties of the economic recession. Britain's John Major could be next and Brian Mulroney of Canada is in a desperate position. Even President George Bush is seen as vulnerable. Ironically the capitalist system is showing its weaknesses at the very time communism has been seen to fail.
AS the red Hag ronir* down over the Kremli n and the seemingly Impossible happen* with the collapse of communism virtually everywhere except In China, it might be expected that the Western world and the capitalist system would be riding high
The opposite la the cuac Not for a long time, possibly not since the Thirties, has the capitalist world been In worac shape.
In many places recession seems lo be on the brink of turning Into slump Despite the yearly gatherings of the Group of Seven — a comparatively new institution formed to produce closer economic cooperation and to head off crises like the present one — the rich countries are drifting rudderless. They seems to have little idea where they arc heading
Furthermore, economic failure is beginning to weaken governments and erode the position of many of the West s leaders. British prime minister Margaret Thatcher could be said to have been an early victim. If the British economy had remained strong she might have survived till now. although there were other reasons for her downfall.
The more obvious first victim was Australian prime minister Bob Hawke, who was ousted In mid December by his former Treasurer. Paul Keating. He leaves the country with 10.5 per cent unemploy ment — the highest since World War Two — and his fall was at lest also tn part due lo an accumulation of financial scandals. Nor rtxw Keating have much chance of surviving the ncjtl election. due by May 1993 at the latest. That will mean Australia swinging back to the right after Its longest ever term of Labour Party govern ment
Next year Thatcher's suc-
cessor in Britain. John Major, could become the second victim of economic woe. The British economy shows almost no sign of recovery and he must go to the poll* by next July- IH» government seems lo be floundering, despite hl* personal popularity, and If he loses out Britain will move tn the opposite direction from Australia — lo the left.
In even worse plight is Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. A. leader of the Conservative Party he recently fell lo an all lime low of nine point* tn the public opinion poll*. The Canadian economy too Is on ft* back.
Mulroney has a little more time to recover than Major — he docs not have lo hold an election until 1993 — bul few give him any chance of win nlng. The alternative I* as uncertain as It is in Britain.
The opposition Liberal Party is weak and support has increased for the left wing National Democratic Party and the recently-formed right wing Reform Party Canada could till right or left next Una and. like Britain. It could have a hung parliament.
New Zealand la in a similar mess. Left gave way to right at the Iasi election, after a year In which the country had truck miuMcn. Now. wM.iu a year of winnfcsg power. U* current incaaibcirt Jauaw Boiler, la the moot unpopular* leader the country has ever' had Ite fats fa«ca even Wow Mulroney s opinton poll rating.
High Inflation and high
Zealand to drastic cutbacks in social welfare and swingeing budgt-lary measures that could »cc yet another prime minister taking over soon
The recession has also set people thinking the unlhtnk-■Mr in the United States — the possibility that George Bush might not be re-elected President next November lie being blamed for paying too Hi Ik attention to the domestic economy while riding high tn International diplomacy. Ecenoadcs. in any ease, was never his prime interest.
Nor Is the recteaton hitting only the leaders of the English-speaking members of the Group of Seven President Francois Mitterrand is now as unpopular as he has ever been, although as a great survivor he seems sure to run his full seven-year term, which ends In 1995
Only Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany la in no poia-' k-iil danger, although his popu-J lurity. loo. has slumped. a»iM mainly because of the economy But It Is barely a year since he was re-ckrtcd
The Western world la thus entering a period of great political uncertainty because Ils cconondr structure is faltering al a time when ft could be cm-pveted to be sounder than ever Before.
If communism h.is brought economic ruin to Ils founding country and its allies, the al-leriKilive capital to I system is showing that it has hum wvukmsaea
Historically, it has moved forward in fits and starts and sccuMi Incapable of producing steady growth —■ and when It does grow it does so in a way dial does not spread the benefits widely enough to reach the underprivileged
Lack of control k-ads to fn-ereuaing greed and selfishness. In recent years we have seen lla uncovering of numivt fl-lumcial scandals in the US. Britain and Australia as well as on an Inter -continental M ak. Auali.dlu has seen souk ui the most spccUicular. featuring tot-dust rialtots like Alun Bond, and suspicion of government com-pHcily Im sona of them
The US is notorious for major financial scandals, but lately Britain has not been far behind. The spider's web of J fraud spun by publisher Robert Maxwell Involving breathtaking sums of money Is only now being unravelled.
In other this and other cases respected firms of accountant* and auditors, the very Inst ituHot is of the Clly of London, with Its history of Integrity, luivc all come under a cloud. Even the banks have presided over sona: extraordinary deals and have never been held lower tn public esteem.
The collapse of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International did nothing to help confidence in Western banking. Among the institutions that came out of that affair badly was the Bank of England.
There must, of course, be much belter and fairer ways of running the world's economy, but no one has conn forward with Ilie blueprint. Wc are desperately in need of new men or women of the intellectual stature of John Maynard Keynes or Karl Marx. Neither got it anywhere right, but they' were giants of their kind.
Where are Ux:ir successors? Or is capitalism to remain the only system of international economic order? The prospect Is not exactly bright.
— GEMINI NEWS
DEREK INGRAM Is the Editor oj Gemini News Service.