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Cautious start at London commodity market
LONDON, Jan 5: The new year started on a cautious note on London commodity mar-kets, which had a rather disaa trous time in 1991 due to recession and oversupply, reports AFP.
Traders stayed away from their desks over most of the Christmas and New Year period while gloomy forecasts were made on the UK economy, suggesting that industrially-used products are unlikely to see a significant rise in demand during the first few months of the year
Soft commodity prices on the other hand are likely to be directly Influenced by import demand from the former Soviet Union. The highlight of ^the pest two weeks on the International scene was Mikhail Gorbachev'* resignation on Christmas Day. as the Soviet Union disintegration was sealed by the creation of a Commonwealth of Independent State* (CIS) .
Platinum fell to its lowest level In six year* as Japanese Investors continued to liquidate their positions. A Japanese trade house forecast that prices may fall as low as 300 dollar if selling continues at the same pace.
Among softs, cocoa fell to it* lowest level for four months and coffee fell to a three months low, as the impact of technical selling was accentuated by thin trading conditions.
Gold: Weaker. Gold prices fell after the Christmas break on rumours that the Soviet gold held ab oad as collateral against iqar.s might be sold. Losses were later slightly reduced on sentiment the market had been oversold, but the lone remained overshadowed by platinum's weakness.
The cut in Ihe Japanese discount rate failed to move the markcl. Traders GNI said the cut was widely regarded as too little too late and was unlikely to undermine the yen
nor have a musstve stimulating effect on the Japanese economy.
Platinum: Weaker. ITallnum fell to its lowest level fur six years as investors liquidated their positions. Analysts said the selling was prompted by a gloomy forecast from the Summitomo Corporation precious metal dealing department, which warned that selling by Japanese investors might drive prices as low as 300 dollar per ounce. Analysis also pointed out thul nvgollu Hons between Russia and the Japanese about 1992 platinum supply contracts arc cutrciilly going on and might be a (actor In the price collapse.
The weakness in Ilie automobile industry has also liad u depressing effect on prices, as it reduces demand for autocatalysis, platinum's main industrial outlet.
Silver: Firm. Silver prices Improved in quiet trading. Even when trading resumed normally in London on January 2 lack of activity was felt due to tbc closure of Japanese and Swiss markets.
Copper: Weaker. Three months prices dropped to their lowest level for three and a half years Just before Christmas on precautionary long liquidation before the ex tended break on London Metal Exchange (LME).
When trading resumed an December 30 prices were briefly supported by' the previous week's one point cut In the US discount rale and by the subsequent surge in the US stock market, as an economic recovery In the United ^Stales would boost demand for base metals. The surprise half: A point cut in the Bank of Japan discount rale also brought some support, ■ although in the UK the eco nomic picture for 1992 remained gloomy.
Copper later lost ground again on news that LME stocks had reached their highest level since March 1984. Over the past two weeks slocks went up by 15.450 tonnes to 332.325 tonnes.
Lead: Easier after firm start. Lead prices were supported by hopes of an economic revival in the United Slates. News that Bulgaria will hall production at Its biggest lead plant for several months for environmental reasons and that the Mount Isa snwltcr is lo close for one week following an explosion may also have brought some support.
Gains however were reduced by height of lime stocks. They increased by 400 tonnes over the past two weeks to 120.350 tonnes, having touched earlier an April- 1984 height of 126,500 tonnes.
Zine: Quiet. Zinc prices remained stuck In a harrow range for most of the time but news Friday of a rise tn LME slocks after several declines was expected lo pressure prices. Compared to two week before stocks were still 4,125 tonnes lower at 154,050 tonnes.
Aluminium: Firmer. Renewed economic optimism in the United States supported prices as did rumours of a production cut at an Eastern European smeller. But news Friday that LME slocks have now topped the one million tonne mark was expected to pressure prices. Over the past two weeks stocks rose by 70,900 tonnes to a record 1,008,950 lonm-s.
Nickel: Quiet. ITiccs moved Irregularly in a narrow range, without clear direction. The tonne was overshadowed by high LME stocks. They rose by 648 tonnes over the two weeks lo 11,850 tonnes, having earlier reached 12,102 tonnes their highest level since October 1984.
Tin: Easier after Ann start. Tin prices failed Lo maintain Initial gains, and were pressured by the rising trend In LME slocks, which went up by 380 tonnes to 13,670 tonnes.
Coffee: Easier. After a lethargic Christmas week, coffee futures fell to a three months low at January, which will conic off the board on January 31, became Icndcr-abk'.
Worries about possible falls in the price of Arabica coffee at the beginning of 1992 also overshadowed the market. Traders E D and F man said Arabica prices should come under pressure because of high Colombian production and Central American selling. Other traders pointed to the possibility that Brazil and Colombia sell off some of their stocks, estimated at 17 and 7 million 60 kilo bags respectively.
Sugar: QulcL Sugar futures hardly moved over the past two weeks without clear fundamental direction.
Talks that former Soviet republics and Cuba are currently negotiating new trading arrangements was the mole factor in the market traders GNI said that a swap of CIS oil for Cuban sugar would lessen speculation that sugar originally destined for Eastern Europe would simply head for the free market.
But on the other hand, it lessens expectations of a collapse In the new Cuban crop due to energy shortages.
Cocoa: Weaker. Cocoa futures fell to their lowest level for four months on the first trading day of the new year on technical liquidations and rumours that cocoa arrivals from the Ivory Coast were higher than last year. The rumours remained unconfirmed, and a trader said that an expected slowdown in the rate of Ivory Coast arrivals into Europe had not materialised, which might have prompted the fall tn future* prices.
Prospects for 1992 however remain encouraging, as world production should be below consumption for the first time in eight years. The Ghana Cocoa Board said that the Ghanean crop mighl fall to 250.000 tonnes in 1991-92, 30,000 tonnes below its previous forecast and 45.000 tonnes less than last season.
Vegetable Oils: Firmer. Vegetable oil prices generally firmed over the past two weeks. Soyabean oil however was pressured by a forecast by German Newsletter OU World that world production of soyabeans might rise by three millions tonnes in 1992 to 105,3 million tonnes.
Coconut oil prices arc expected to stay firm in 1992 on tight world supply. The Philippines, a top world exporter. forecast lls coconut oil exports to fall by 22 per cent to 693.000 tonnes in 1992 .
The FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization) said that world production of corp could fall by three per cent in 1992 after a five per cent fall in 1991. ,
Il also said that world production of palm oil could rise by eight per sent lo 13 million tonnes this year as a result of larger planted areas in Malaysia and Indonesia.
Crude Oil : Rally after weak start. Brent crude, the benchmark for North Sea oil, traded waters below the 18 dollar-pcr-burrcl mark during the holiday period. But prices rallied above this level on the first trading day of the new year, supported by the latest American Petroleum Institute (API) figures which showed that US crude slocks had dropped by 10.3 million barrels in Ihe week ended December 27.
Traders GNI said the market's undertone remains rather soft and that unless a more sustained pick-up in demand is noted, prices are likely to remain 'in a bear trend.
Talk of an emergency OPEC meeting to discuss the prospect of a glut next spring was rendered meaningless by Saudi Arabia's refusal lo hold u
meeting before the next scheduled session on February 12.
Rubber: Weak. Natural rubber prices hardly moved over the holiday period In London. In Kuala Lumpur the International Natural Rubber Organisation (INRO) indicator price fell below tlie must-buy level of 166 Malaysian/ Singapore cent per kilo, but Ilie buffer slock manager surprisingly did not buy anything.
A special council meeting of the Kuala Lumpur-based organisation is to be held on January 21-22 to review poH _ cies alined al stemming the slide In rubber prices.
(NRO has bought more than 100,000 tonnes of rubber since the current five-year second International Natural Rubber Agreement (INRA H) was enforced, and under INRO to suspend or review operations, or review the current reference prices which guides the buffer stock manager In market Intervention.
Grains: Firmer. Wheat and barley futures firmed in London, supported by sterling's weakness. Wprrics thal discord among the cx-Sovict republics might disrupt purchases of western'grain however kept a laid on the market.
Cotton: Quiet. Cotton prices hardly moved on the Liverpool market as trading conditions remained slow throughout most of western Europe. There were fears of delays in shipments from the former Soviet Union, and Soviet supplies available on the spot were offered at significantly higher prices than those for forward shipment.
Wool: Quiet. Wool lop prices remained unchanged on a featureless Bradford market. Traders said that worries about the UK recession was undcO-rniining confidence In the wool Industry, despite recent price rises In Australia. Exchange rates however tend to keep UK prices competitive.