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Japanese face hard times?
TOKYO. Dee 12: After years of unprecedented economic growth, two gloomy words are once again making an unwelcome return to the Japanese vocabulary: "fu kelkl." or "hard times "
Shopkeeper, restaurant owners, stock market investors and private economists all are talking about the bust they’re convinced is hitting this country after almost five straight years of boom, even though government officials claim otherwise.
In fecL the economy Is still expanding, although at a slower pace, and has been for about 60 straight months.
"What's there to be grim about?" says Adrian Tschoegl. chief economist at SBC1 Securities (Asia) Ltd.
Tschoegl likens the anxiety to a hangover after the years of revelling in the economic
"People thought the party would go on forever, but of course it can't. Now It's the morning after, and things are getting back to normal. Tschoegl said.
But the sense of gloom persists. The Nikkei Stock Average, the Tokyo Stock Exchange's key barometer has fallen 1.166.54 points in the last five straight trading days. Including almost 400 points
Tuesday after a central bank survey showed pessimism among Japanese corporate leaders
This is the worst cycle of the market." said Mike Kawakami, a senior trader with Merrill Lynch. There's no good news, economic fundamentals don't look good and earnings are bad
The central bank survey also showed that major manufacturers have revised their forecasts for pretax profits for fiscal 1991. which ends next March 31. sharply downward to show a 12.9 per cent decline from the year earlier. Non-manufacturers anticipated a 1.5 per cent decline tn pretax profits.
Officials at the central bank insist tat most indicators, including key capital spending plans and liquidity, show the economy remains firm.
But many private economists believe otherwise.
Nomura Research Institute, the private research company affiliated with top brokerage Nomura Securities Co., forecast Tuesday that corporate capital investment would slow to 3.4 per cent in the current fiscal year from 17.6 per cent growth tn fiscal 1990. and fall almost six per cent in fiscal 1992.
Lagging profitability and
demand are signs that stagfla tion — combined Inflation, a decline In business activity and unemployment — are on the way. says Johnsen Takahashi, director of the private think tank Mitsubishi Research Institute.
"Much of the boom in consumption has been supported by the bubble says Takahashi. "1 think we can expect a long slump — 1992 will be no good — maybe about two
Almost everyone agrees that the days of the “bubble economy". when land and stock prices more than doubled and the newly rich gorged on luxury Imports, are over.
Government economists say the slowdown results from policies aimed at cooling the overheated economy and restoring some rationality to Japan's outrageously inflated real estate and stock markets.
Government agencies expect economic growth in fiscal 1991 to still be at least 3.5 per cent, while private estimates average about 3 per cent
A severe but easing labour shortage keeps the unemployment rate at Just over two per cent, and inflation is at about 3.5 per cent.
Meanwhile. Japan announced Wednesday that its trade surplus for November
soared by 192.9 per cent to 6.56 billion dollar from 2.24 billion the year before.
The monthly surplus was mainly with the United States, which was up' 0.8 per cent from a year ago to 3.59 billion dollar.
Japan s trade surpluses with the United States, the European Community. South Korea and Taiwan have been a growing source of friction in recent years.
The monthly report was released a day after the Ministry of International Trade and Industry predicted that Japan's overall trade surplus for fiscal 1991, which ends next March 31. is expected to total 100 billion dollar of 44 per cent more than the government's original projection of 56 billion dollar.
Trade officials said the prediction means that the general decline in Japan's trade surplus since its peak of 101.6 billion dollar for 1986 may changing. Last year, the surplus totalled 69.9 billion dollar.
The Finance Ministry report Wednesday said Japan's exports fn November totalled 27.06 billion dollar up 5.1 per cent over a year earlier, helped by strong exports of automobiles. telecommunications equipment and semiconductors.
Japan's Imports fell 12.7 per cent from a year ago to 20.51 billion dollar, the third substantial monthly drop tn a row The ministry said one big factor for the decline was that imports of crude oil and other petroleum products shrank considerably in volume and value from the year-earlier levels, when the Gulf crisis boosted such imports and also, their value.