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Nigeria; A Second Go at Democracy
***Nigerians are getting ready to give democracy one more try, but as Toye Olori of IPS reports, they are sceptical that the military will completely disengage from politics.
HKMBE: Nigeria's
military government enters Its final stages of disengaging from government, Nigerians are sceptical that democratic civil rule will take a firm hold in the West African nation.
The prevailing view was expressed by Sam Nwokolo, a Nigerian businessman: "It is unfortunate that the military has tasted power. There Is nothing to prevent their coming back after handing over tn 1992."
Nigerian prestdeht Ibrahim Babangida is said to have a good programme for transition, but Junior military officers who sec themselves as potential military governors, ministers and heads of state may want to seize power.
Ollsa Agbakoka, chairperson of the Civil Liberty Organisation (CLO) in Lagos, echoed Nwokolo's fear that the military might wait quietly in the wings to seize power in the event of civilian rule not work ing out
"Babangida has come up with what he calls a custodian theory', that places responsibility on the army to intervene in the event of a threat to national security," Agbakoka noted.
In a recent BBC interview Babangida warned that while he had no objccUon to democracy, the military might intervene if a threat emerged to the country's "sovereignty and integrity".
Agbakoba argues that this means if the transition programme does not run well, and even if the army leaves and finds that the civilians are unable to carry on the political programme, they Just might intervene.
Since independence from Britain in October 1960,
Nigeria has had 23 years of military rule and eight civilian governments.
The military first came to power in January 1966 to correct" widespread political grievances and the alleged political imbalance between the north and south of the country
This problem persists. Al least 300 people are believed to have been recently killed in communal riots in the northern city of Kano.
During the first republic, minority tribes were relegated to the background, leaders of the opposition were arrested and imprisoned for an alleged plot to overthrow the government and there was total anarchy in the country, according to Akin Aderibigbe. a Nigerian working here.
These actions and corruption of the civilians paved the way for the soldiers to strike in 1966," he said.
The 1966 coup entrenched a military government headed by Gen Aguyi Irons!, an Ibo from eastern Nigeria — one of the three major ethnic groups.
Ironsi's advisers came mainly from his ethnic group. The northern soldiers and people viewed the coup as an Ibo one since most of those killed were northern leaders. A few westerners also died, but there were no Ibo casualties.
This brought about a counter-coup led by northern soldiers during which Irons! was killed and replaced by Gen Yakubu Gowon. a Christian
ruled between 1966 and 1975.
Gowon was overthrown in July 1975 by Gen Murtala Muhammad, who was assassinated and succeeded by Gen Olusegun Oobasanjo. who handed over power to the civilian government of Hchu Shagari in October, 1979.
But. by then, the economy had worsened and the civilian government was unable to cope with the problems.
Economic deterioration and corruption were the principal causes of the military coup of December 1983 led by Major -Gen Muhammadu Buhari.
Buhari was overthrown In August 1'985 by Gen Ibrahim Babangida. who immediately revoked the censorship decree and freed many detainees.
Babangida introduced a number of radical changes, among them the structural adjustment programme In 1986 to revive the economy, and in 1987. a timetable for the transition to civilian rule.
"The Babangida regime came to power with a set of programmes to revive the economy, but I am not very sure if he has succeeded in making life better for the people.... life is still very difficult for Nigerians,' Aderibigbe said.
Ordinary Nigerians do not have much faith in the. military's ability to improve their lives. According to Okudero There is no freedom of speech. If we complain and tell the truth, they can imprison us or even kill us."
Some Nigerians arc now also beginning to wonder whether Babangida will actually hand over power in 1992 As. part of the transitional pro gramme, elections have lo be held for local governments, and state and national assemblies, as well as the presi dency. This process is difficult in a large country like Nigeria, and it has been complicated further by the recent creation of nine new states and another 91 local governments.
It seems that even if power is handed over to civilians, the structures being set up In sueh a hurry will not be strong enough lo provide the sort of leadership Nigeria needs.
In that case, the bet is that Nigeria will once again find it self under army rule In the not too-distant future.